We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says • Hacker News Board

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#21

Post by skybrian » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:19 PM UTC

norswap wrote: post #10

Does "no more permanent ice" means there is a period of the year where there is no ice at all at the poles? That seems hardly believable. I was also under the impression that melting ice would push the level of the oceans by multiple meters. If 75-80% of ice has already melted, wouldn't we have seen significant elevation already? Just some facts that I found surprising, coming from someone who doesn't know much on th…

Not "the poles". He was talking about the Arctic ocean, not Antarctica. Very different.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#22

Post by assblaster » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:20 PM UTC

The key part from the article:

"The level of carbon now in the atmosphere hasn’t been seen in 12 million years".

What was the Earth like 13 million years ago? Or 130 million years? A snapshot in time does little to provide actual context.

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#23

Post by Dumblydorr » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:21 PM UTC

There's little chance of transitioning our energy system in time, so let's start considering how to cool our planet. Can we block or reflect sunlight? That seems the brightest future, cooling the planet artificially while decarbonizing and capturing the carbon already released.

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#24

Post by thecolorblue » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:22 PM UTC

makerofspoons wrote: post #15

Fjolsvith wrote: post #14

> "People at this point haven't come to grips with the irreversibility of this sea-level rise problem," Anderson said, displaying a map that shows the site of Harvard's new $10 billion Allston campus inundated after 3 meters of sea-level rise. The Harvard scientist wants to save his new research center from climate change. Also, submission should say "Five", instead of "Four".

The article is from January 2018, so if Dr. Anderson is correct we now have four years.

The title should have indicated the article was from 2018 and properly quoted the articles title.

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#25

Post by jefflombardjr » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:23 PM UTC

norswap wrote: post #10

Does "no more permanent ice" means there is a period of the year where there is no ice at all at the poles? That seems hardly believable. I was also under the impression that melting ice would push the level of the oceans by multiple meters. If 75-80% of ice has already melted, wouldn't we have seen significant elevation already? Just some facts that I found surprising, coming from someone who doesn't know much on th…

edit: Polar ice caps are already floating in the sea, so they will not effect sea level as much by melting - the volume is already accounted for. The problem is that the sea ice caps reflect a ton of energy that allow ice to form on land. Melting land ice has a different effect on sea level rise.

All I could find on short notice was related to Antarctic Ice cover, this article from NASA does a good job of explaining why the two are not directly correlated in the immediate term - it seems that "One of the main things we learned was that as grounded ice retreats inland, the bedrock under it lifts up elastically,"

The author goes on to say "Although this sounds like good news, the scientists say it's important to keep it in perspective. "It's like a truck traveling downhill that encounters speed bumps in the road," said Larour. "The truck will slow down a bit but will ultimately continue down the hill" - just as the ice sheet will continue to melt and sea level will continue to rise."

From https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/161/antarcticas-effect-on-sea...

For actual numbers: https://sealevel.nasa.gov/

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#26

Post by _red » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:23 PM UTC

jefflombardjr wrote: post #9

aldoushuxley001 wrote: post #7

No we don't. Hyperbole around climate change just makes people more likely to disregard the actual dangers.

Polar ice caps melting is hyperbole? Care to elaborate?

Because the vast majority of the earths history has been without ice on the poles. Obviously this will force changes on humans no doubt.

However, trying to shoehorn this natural fact into a political / carbon-credit trading scheme is deeply cynical that is apparent to most >100 IQ people.

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#27

Post by dagss » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:24 PM UTC

assblaster wrote: post #20

norswap wrote: post #10

Does "no more permanent ice" means there is a period of the year where there is no ice at all at the poles? That seems hardly believable. I was also under the impression that melting ice would push the level of the oceans by multiple meters. If 75-80% of ice has already melted, wouldn't we have seen significant elevation already? Just some facts that I found surprising, coming from someone who doesn't know much on th…

The problem with predictions like this is that this prediction will look silly in 4 years when the Earth has not ended, similar to how wild predictions in the past have not borne fruit. I understand their desire to sensationalize, but people like AOC make the same predictions, and she is not seen as smart by a large portion of the public. I think if we just stick with the experimental science research, the general pu…

Citations on wild predictions in past not being correct?

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#28

Post by mhandley » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:25 PM UTC

norswap wrote: post #10

Does "no more permanent ice" means there is a period of the year where there is no ice at all at the poles? That seems hardly believable. I was also under the impression that melting ice would push the level of the oceans by multiple meters. If 75-80% of ice has already melted, wouldn't we have seen significant elevation already? Just some facts that I found surprising, coming from someone who doesn't know much on th…

The reference was to no more permanent ice in the Arctic. Arctic ice floats. Floating ice displaces its mass in seawater. When it melts, it becomes fresh water, displacing roughly the same volume of seawater as it did before, so minimal change in sea level. The main problem with loss of arctic ice is that water absorbs much more sunlight than ice, contributing to a positive feedback loop.

The Greenland ice sheet, and Antarctic ice are a completely different story. Their melting will raise sea levels directly.

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#29

Post by WillPostForFood » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:26 PM UTC

jefflombardjr wrote: post #8

stackola wrote: post #3

I remember Al Gore saying we got 10 years in 2006. In fact this type of rhetoric has been going on for centuries. [1] [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/08/the-ever-receding-cli...

1. Al Gore didn't say this, James Anderson did. James Anderson is a "Harvard University professor of atmospheric chemistry best known for establishing that chlorofluorocarbons were damaging the Ozone Layer." 2. You're right about the rhetoric - it has been around for centuries but so have major ecological disasters . The Dust Bowl alone forced tens of thousands of poverty-stricken families to abandon their farms, una…

Al Gore has made the claim multiple times:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ice-caps-melt-gore-2014/

e.g. in 2007:

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Re: We Have Four Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

#30

Post by dagss » Wed, Jun 12, 2019, 1:26 PM UTC

_red wrote: post #26

jefflombardjr wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polar ice caps melting is hyperbole? Care to elaborate?

Because the vast majority of the earths history has been without ice on the poles. Obviously this will force changes on humans no doubt. However, trying to shoehorn this natural fact into a political / carbon-credit trading scheme is deeply cynical that is apparent to most >100 IQ people.

Noone cares about earths history. Earth will be fine. Nature will adapt.

What we care about is that all of industrialized human civilization has been with polar ice caps...