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Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

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Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#51

Post by kortilla »

tptacek wrote: post #27
mevile wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

I don't think car sharing will go extinct either, but be careful with your analyses. Uber and Lyft are precariously balanced on a system of ( substantial ) low-income demand, high-income demand, and subsidy. If prices rise, low-income demand plummets, ending subsidies. High-income pricing could rise significantly higher than you might expect, at which point you no longer have "ride sharing" so much as you have privat…

Taxis managed to exist before. Why do you assume Uber and Lyft can’t still displace that market like they do now but at the same fares as taxis?

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#52

Post by kbenson »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #29
mevile wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

I could see Uber and Lyft being still around, with one or both of them having gone through a bankruptcy. Alternately, with one or both having their stock price crater.

Just as the on-demand ride service was disrupted by ride-sharing, I see ride-sharing ready to be disrupted by an on-damand ride service aggregator.

If Uber and Lyft are like arilines, what happens when a travelocity equivalent enters the game? Does all that market position that was bought through VC money matter if all of a sudden many (or most!) your fares are being viewed side by side with every competitor that feels like being in that market?

What matters more to a consumer of these services, the past good behavior of the companies they've used, or the fact that it's a dollar cheaper and picks you up a minute earlier, or in a nicer car? Even if they are reticent to use an unknown company, everyone knows Uber and Lyft, and the damage done to the VC funded low-fare strategy just by showing those two head to head would be enormous. And what happens when entry is that easy and localities start forming co-op groups to provide the benefits of Uber or Lyft but funnel all profits back to the drivers?

All I can say is that I'm grateful for the VC backers of Uber and Lyft for their generous donations.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#53

Post by zippergz »

tptacek wrote: post #33
ghaff wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems pretty reasonable to assume that equilibrium looks like taxis and private cars with app hailing. Personally, it wouldn't affect my usage much; I just use these services when I'm traveling because they're better experiences for the most part than taking a cab. But, anecdotally, a fair number of urbanites regularly use Uber/Lyft instead of public transit or just because they don't want to drive. Presumably, si…

I think it's important to remember that a big part of the value prop of these services is that when you open the app to hail a car, you're pretty much assured of getting that car within 15 minutes or so. Change the current equilibrium much and that benefit might go away. I could hail a cab by phone before Uber, but, in Chicago, where we have pretty reasonable cab service (certainly light years better than SFBA's), it…

Yes, this is absolutely key for me. Effectively never needing to worry about being able to get a ride to and from wherever I need at any time removes a huge amount of stress and overhead from my life. The minute that stops being reliable, I have to start planning my travel and movements around transportation methods that ARE reliable (e.g. rental cars, or driving my own car). Once I've rented a car or driven my own car, the chances that I will use an Uber or Lyft for any part of that trip drop to near zero.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#54

Post by titusjohnson »

tptacek wrote: post #27
mevile wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

I don't think car sharing will go extinct either, but be careful with your analyses. Uber and Lyft are precariously balanced on a system of ( substantial ) low-income demand, high-income demand, and subsidy. If prices rise, low-income demand plummets, ending subsidies. High-income pricing could rise significantly higher than you might expect, at which point you no longer have "ride sharing" so much as you have privat…

Car sharing? There is no sharing involved, all transactions are done with money. They're taxi dispatch services that live in a grey area of employee/contractor.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#56

Post by kortilla »

tptacek wrote: post #33
ghaff wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems pretty reasonable to assume that equilibrium looks like taxis and private cars with app hailing. Personally, it wouldn't affect my usage much; I just use these services when I'm traveling because they're better experiences for the most part than taking a cab. But, anecdotally, a fair number of urbanites regularly use Uber/Lyft instead of public transit or just because they don't want to drive. Presumably, si…

I think it's important to remember that a big part of the value prop of these services is that when you open the app to hail a car, you're pretty much assured of getting that car within 15 minutes or so. Change the current equilibrium much and that benefit might go away. I could hail a cab by phone before Uber, but, in Chicago, where we have pretty reasonable cab service (certainly light years better than SFBA's), it…

You’re overestimating how good the cab systems are outside of Chicago and the coasts. There is a lot of value in just having a reliable hailing system with a review system and tracking of where your pickup is, even if there is a 30 min delay.

The state of the art of cabs in smaller cities is getting hung up on, ghosted, or massively delayed when given a different ETA if you don’t book the cab hours in advance.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#58

Post by AlexMuir »

mevile wrote: post #14
ketzo wrote: post #13

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years ... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long. I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new i…

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

By 'Car sharing' I think you mean taxis. Ride sharing is a tiny fraction of their business.

To be fair, one could make the same argument about Pets.com. People will always need dog food, it will always be inconvenient to get it from the shop. But here we are 20 years on and I'd say online delivery of pet supplies across the world is virtually non-existent.

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