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Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

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Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#31

Post by Twirrim »

neogodless wrote: post #11
zemo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I kinda like the slideshow, it lets me send someone a link to a specific slide.

Maybe it's just me, but I didn't understand the (slideshow) interface. I saw "click to begin" and I saw a down arrow, so I put the two together and clicked "down" to begin. Then I saw a list of archives, and if I continued down, it ended. I assumed I had to click 2019, so I did that and I was back where I began. It took me trying that twice before I realized I had to click... anything except the arrow.

Also clicking through on it seems to have a massive lag at the moment in loading slides (presumably due to a spike in load courtesy of HN frontpage appearance amongst others?). I just saw the same cover slide over and over again until eventually it caught up.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#32

Post by ghaff »

tptacek wrote: post #27
mevile wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

I don't think car sharing will go extinct either, but be careful with your analyses. Uber and Lyft are precariously balanced on a system of ( substantial ) low-income demand, high-income demand, and subsidy. If prices rise, low-income demand plummets, ending subsidies. High-income pricing could rise significantly higher than you might expect, at which point you no longer have "ride sharing" so much as you have privat…

It seems pretty reasonable to assume that equilibrium looks like taxis and private cars with app hailing. Personally, it wouldn't affect my usage much; I just use these services when I'm traveling because they're better experiences for the most part than taking a cab.

But, anecdotally, a fair number of urbanites regularly use Uber/Lyft instead of public transit or just because they don't want to drive. Presumably, significantly increasing prices would lose casual users who are using these services because they're a bit more convenient.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#33

Post by tptacek »

ghaff wrote: post #32
tptacek wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think car sharing will go extinct either, but be careful with your analyses. Uber and Lyft are precariously balanced on a system of ( substantial ) low-income demand, high-income demand, and subsidy. If prices rise, low-income demand plummets, ending subsidies. High-income pricing could rise significantly higher than you might expect, at which point you no longer have "ride sharing" so much as you have privat…

It seems pretty reasonable to assume that equilibrium looks like taxis and private cars with app hailing. Personally, it wouldn't affect my usage much; I just use these services when I'm traveling because they're better experiences for the most part than taking a cab. But, anecdotally, a fair number of urbanites regularly use Uber/Lyft instead of public transit or just because they don't want to drive. Presumably, si…

I think it's important to remember that a big part of the value prop of these services is that when you open the app to hail a car, you're pretty much assured of getting that car within 15 minutes or so. Change the current equilibrium much and that benefit might go away. I could hail a cab by phone before Uber, but, in Chicago, where we have pretty reasonable cab service (certainly light years better than SFBA's), it would often take multiple attempts and involve a 30+ minute wait. You could reliably get a private car in NYC, but, as I recall from all the times I worked in NYC, you weren't getting that car in 15 minutes.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#35

Post by Swizec »

ghaff wrote: post #32
tptacek wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think car sharing will go extinct either, but be careful with your analyses. Uber and Lyft are precariously balanced on a system of ( substantial ) low-income demand, high-income demand, and subsidy. If prices rise, low-income demand plummets, ending subsidies. High-income pricing could rise significantly higher than you might expect, at which point you no longer have "ride sharing" so much as you have privat…

It seems pretty reasonable to assume that equilibrium looks like taxis and private cars with app hailing. Personally, it wouldn't affect my usage much; I just use these services when I'm traveling because they're better experiences for the most part than taking a cab. But, anecdotally, a fair number of urbanites regularly use Uber/Lyft instead of public transit or just because they don't want to drive. Presumably, si…

I for one have already switched from Uber to Jump (which Uber now owns anyway) for casual use where I’m not in a hurry. A bicycle is more pleasant to use, I don’t have to wait for pickup, it’s way cheaper, and I get a little exercise. The electric motor helps me not get sweaty.

During rush-ish hour it’s also faster than a car due to lane splitting and such.

The math goes like this: $15 for a car that takes 15min + 5min of waiting, or $3 for a bike that takes 10min + some pedaling? Is easy decision

This is downtown SF so we’re talking lots of traffic and short distances.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#36

Post by ghaff »

tptacek wrote: post #33
ghaff wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems pretty reasonable to assume that equilibrium looks like taxis and private cars with app hailing. Personally, it wouldn't affect my usage much; I just use these services when I'm traveling because they're better experiences for the most part than taking a cab. But, anecdotally, a fair number of urbanites regularly use Uber/Lyft instead of public transit or just because they don't want to drive. Presumably, si…

I think it's important to remember that a big part of the value prop of these services is that when you open the app to hail a car, you're pretty much assured of getting that car within 15 minutes or so. Change the current equilibrium much and that benefit might go away. I could hail a cab by phone before Uber, but, in Chicago, where we have pretty reasonable cab service (certainly light years better than SFBA's), it…

Fair point. Around where I live, they seem pretty scarce the few times I've looked at the app out of curiosity. I don't know how long a typical pickup would take. But there's certainly some density level of drivers/passengers below which the market doesn't work. In fact, any percentage decrease presumably decreases service everywhere to some degree and shrinks the areas where Uber/Lyft can effectively operate at all.

I do use private cars but pretty much to get back and forth to the airport.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#40

Post by shaki-dora »

tschellenbach wrote: post #17

Correction: Booking is founded by a Dutch guy (slide 260): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booking.com

That's a pretty amazing slide even with that error(? see below). 15 of the top 25 tech companies had 1st or 2nd gen immigrant (co-)founders.

As to booking.com: from reading the Wikipedia entry I gather the original dutch-founded booking.com was at some point acquired by Priceline Group (which had an American founder), which later changed its name back to booking.com. It seems the slide is (technically) correct, and any attempt to capture such cases in a workable definition would be complicated.

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