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Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

bondcap.com

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Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#11

Post by neogodless »

zemo wrote: post #6
diebeforei485 wrote: post #3

Please link to the PDF[1] if possible. [1] https://www.bondcap.com/pdf/190611_Internet_Trends_2019.pdf

I kinda like the slideshow, it lets me send someone a link to a specific slide.

Maybe it's just me, but I didn't understand the (slideshow) interface. I saw "click to begin" and I saw a down arrow, so I put the two together and clicked "down" to begin. Then I saw a list of archives, and if I continued down, it ended. I assumed I had to click 2019, so I did that and I was back where I began. It took me trying that twice before I realized I had to click... anything except the arrow.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#12

Post by parf02 »

neogodless wrote: post #11
zemo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I kinda like the slideshow, it lets me send someone a link to a specific slide.

Maybe it's just me, but I didn't understand the (slideshow) interface. I saw "click to begin" and I saw a down arrow, so I put the two together and clicked "down" to begin. Then I saw a list of archives, and if I continued down, it ended. I assumed I had to click 2019, so I did that and I was back where I began. It took me trying that twice before I realized I had to click... anything except the arrow.

Took me way longer than it should to figure it out. Then the slideshow took over my browser history :(

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#13

Post by ketzo »

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long.

I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new investment, and customer acquisition is just so unbelievably competitive/expensive, it's an arms race that (IMO) has to collapse at some point.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#14

Post by mevile »

ketzo wrote: post #13

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years ... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long. I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new i…

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft

Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#15

Post by loganfrederick »

mevile wrote: post #14
ketzo wrote: post #13

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years ... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long. I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new i…

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

The question is: will Uber and Lyft always be the entities leading car-ordering apps?

Hypothetically, Uber and Lyft stock prices could collapse, Google and Apple buy them, respectively, and then they could become features in Google and Apple Maps, as opposed to standalone companies and apps.

Sure, there are additional logistics, city management, back-end processing pieces that are not trivial. But the customer app experience certainly can be replicated as companies like Via have done, and Google and Apple could afford the transition costs of taking over all the behind-the-scenes logistics.

Not saying this will happen, but it's an illustration of how car-sharing survives but Uber and Lyft do not.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#16

Post by tedsanders »

loganfrederick wrote: post #15
mevile wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft Car sharing isn't going anywhere. It's too convenient. The prices will rise, the number of drivers and passengers will fall and the companies will shrink, but they'll still be around. I have trouble seeing suddenly seeing a day when there's no car share service because they all finally went belly up.

The question is: will Uber and Lyft always be the entities leading car-ordering apps? Hypothetically, Uber and Lyft stock prices could collapse, Google and Apple buy them, respectively, and then they could become features in Google and Apple Maps, as opposed to standalone companies and apps. Sure, there are additional logistics, city management, back-end processing pieces that are not trivial. But the customer app ex…

I mean, even in this scenario the company still exists, just with a different brand. They'll still have the same code, the same infrastructure, the same users.

If Facebook buys Oculus, that doesn't mean Oculus stops existing. It just means Oculus is now owned by Facebook.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#18

Post by lil-scamp »

ketzo wrote: post #13

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years ... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long. I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new i…

While margins in on-demand are usually pretty slim, companies can get pretty creative about opening up revenue streams: ad-serving, corp partnerships, enterprise pricing, licensing out tech).

None of these are a silver bullet, but they open up new growth that isn't tied to the standard hockey stick growth curve people use to get funding.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#19

Post by loganfrederick »

tedsanders wrote: post #16
loganfrederick wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is: will Uber and Lyft always be the entities leading car-ordering apps? Hypothetically, Uber and Lyft stock prices could collapse, Google and Apple buy them, respectively, and then they could become features in Google and Apple Maps, as opposed to standalone companies and apps. Sure, there are additional logistics, city management, back-end processing pieces that are not trivial. But the customer app ex…

I mean, even in this scenario the company still exists, just with a different brand. They'll still have the same code, the same infrastructure, the same users. If Facebook buys Oculus, that doesn't mean Oculus stops existing. It just means Oculus is now owned by Facebook.

Correct, the main difference (in my mind, open to other arguments) is how financial resources are allocated.

Right now, Uber and Lyft are burning a ton of money on customer acquisition with the goals of gaining enough scale to be sustainable, independent companies.

Relating this back to the great-grandparent post, there's an alternative: Google and Apple could use their existing brand recognition and software reach to maintain wide-scale car-ordering apps without having to spend as much (certainly still some) and with bigger balance sheets to take any short term financial hits. Then they could let the supply (drivers and the cost of rides) and demand (how many customers will pay for non-VC subsidized cars) play itself out over time, instead of the Uber/Lyft model of trying to juice both sides of the marketplace with excess spend.

Re: Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]

#20

Post by bilal4hmed »

coalbin wrote: post #9
bilal4hmed wrote: post #4

What took me by surprise was that telegram had more users than whatsapp or iMessage

I think you misinterpreted the graph, telegram has significantly fewer monthly active users than any of the other messaging services listed on the graph.

doh sorry about that, I did read it incorrectly.
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