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The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

economist.com

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Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#11
post #7

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called t…

As I recall it, Barbara Tuchman argues/describes in the Excellent "The Guns of August" that once precautionary mobilization had been ordered in one country, due to the nature of the railway system driven technology behind the logistics of the day, war was pretty much inevitable.

Nobody realized "the system" had this side effect before it was started, and once the button was pressed, it was pressed...

As your quote says. "economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war".

https://smile.amazon.com/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-...

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#13
post #7

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

At one point people claimed "no two countries with a McDonalds had ever been at war with each other"; this was I believe ended by the NATO attacks on Serbia in support of Kosovan forces.

It seems possible that the US will get itself into a conflict, possibly (hopefully!) non-total, that disrupts its globalised supply chains and results in massive US business losses. On the other hand, it's hard to see what any non-nuclear opponent could do to the US that would be more damaging than its own opiate manufacturers have already achieved.

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#14
post #7

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called t…

From what I remember there was a period of rapid (although not total) deintegration leading up to WW1 and WW2.

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#15
post #7

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called t…

By that same argument, murder laws are ineffective because they don't stop serial killers. And traffic laws are ineffective because they didn't stop a big pile up that one time. Earthquake-safe construction is ineffective because it didn't protect against the Big One.

You can't point at severity as an argument against a mechanism to control likeliness.

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#16

I'm still royally $EXPLETIVE_HERE about Analog Devices buying Linear Technology a couple of months ago. AD and LTC used to be the mutual second source suppliers for critical components in lots of my projects. For almost every part AD had there was a matching counterpart in LTC's portfolio and vice versa. And often enough I could design my PCBs in a way that they even could be populated with either chip, depending on…

[deleted]

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#17

I'm still royally $EXPLETIVE_HERE about Analog Devices buying Linear Technology a couple of months ago. AD and LTC used to be the mutual second source suppliers for critical components in lots of my projects. For almost every part AD had there was a matching counterpart in LTC's portfolio and vice versa. And often enough I could design my PCBs in a way that they even could be populated with either chip, depending on…

Ah, Analog Devices, the king of "expensive because we say so" parts.

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#18
post #7

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called t…

The article you linked says the opposite of what you quote.

Right after the quote, the article's authors say that these claims [about Europe being economically interdependent before WW1] are exaggerated and this do not disprove the theory that interdependence prevents war.

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#19

I'm still royally $EXPLETIVE_HERE about Analog Devices buying Linear Technology a couple of months ago. AD and LTC used to be the mutual second source suppliers for critical components in lots of my projects. For almost every part AD had there was a matching counterpart in LTC's portfolio and vice versa. And often enough I could design my PCBs in a way that they even could be populated with either chip, depending on…

Didn't analog and linear merge in 2016? And TI and National Semiconductor merge in 2011?

Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

#20
post #7

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

It's interesting to see videos of the borders of the world over time. Contrary to intuition, the rate of shifts (often due to warfare) were accelerating over the centuries. Then, suddenly, since 1945 everything comes to a standstill among developed nations excepting the relatively peaceful internal collapse of some communist nations. 1945 of course being when we first detonated a nuclear weapon over another country, twice.

The thing that's stopped countries from war has not been trade, amicability, social evolution or anything besides nukes. The reason no developed nations ever go to war is because there is no win condition. If one side or the other is facing significant losses, they will retaliate with nuclear weapons. If that doesn't end the war immediately - it'll shortly result in a flurry with both countries effectively ending each other instead. Mutually assured destruction, as a term, always felt like it somehow missed some of this nuance!

The thing that ought actually concern people is the development of anti-missile technology which is rapidly advancing. Highly effective anti-missile technology would signal the return to war. This is why countries such as Russia have been developing things like 'Tsunami Weapons' [1] - a nuclear weapon designed to be detonated under the ocean that could generate radioactive tsunamis thousands of feet high. If that sounds difficult to believe consider that we have nukes in excess of 100 megatons now a days. Hiroshima was 16 kilotons - in other words about 6,250 times more powerful.

The point of this being is that I think this will help create a multipolar world and industry - imagine e.g. a new Chinese OS competing against Android/Apple. But I do not think that the current status quo of the world has been playing a meaningful role in deterring war anymore so than a change to a more multipolar world will advance it. I think it's simple. When we can't overcome nukes, we won't have "outright" war - creating an allowance for proxy wars like Vietnam where no nuclear participant's sovereignty is at stake. When we manage to overcome nukes, we will have outright war.

[1] - https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-launches-new-submarine-believ...

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