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Dad, Are We Rich?

wealthydoc.org

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Re: Dad, Are We Rich?

#161
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That 4% is empirically derived from data covering the 20th century and is appropriate for earlyish retirement. There's two reasons to be more conservative: 1) We may be in a low-yield world for a long time. 2) Those studies were based on earlier retirement, not on people leaving the workforce in their 20s and 30s, the way that some very lucky HN readers may do.

Although on the flip side, the number also assumes you have no flexibility and don't change your spending according to how much you have left. It's a tricky one to work out, and 4% is (as you say) definitely not a number you can easily use for retiring in your 30s.

Definitely. If you're willing to constrain consumption when required and work again if you have to, things change. Especially if you continue to work just enough in your professional field during early retirement that you can go back to earning an appreciable fraction of your previous earnings on a temporary basis if/when required.

Re: Dad, Are We Rich?

#162
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Warren Buffet had an interesting take on "being rich". He defined it as being able to withstand economic, medical, etc catastrophe and still being able to maintain your standard of living and be able to rebuild your wealth in a reasonable amount of time. I think he set "rich" as having $25 million of liquid assets. He said have that amount of liquid assets will shelter you from a few medical or economic disasters and…

If you have $3m, sure, a business crisis could wipe you out, but if a medical one does, it's your own fault. Health plans can't even have maximum lifetime payouts in the US anymore. They will have to pay for everything over your out of pocket max.

There are plenty of exclusions in the fine print for out of pocket max in most policies though. It seems more cut and dry than it is.

Re: Dad, Are We Rich?

#163
post #160
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A $2.5m mortgage would cost you around $13k a month, Porsche lease less than $1k a month. You've got about $15k a month left in take home pay what in the world are you going to spend that on and still feel middle class?

Just to follow up here. 500k/yr is around 41k a month. Figure you are going to be paying about 40% in taxes or 16,400 a month in taxes you get 24600 left Considering you just spent 14k on a house and car you get 10,600k left. Groceries for a family in the bay runs around 2k a month so now you are down to 8k a month. Wife needs a car plus you need insurance gas and maintenance. Parking runs what $45 / day or 1350... l…

Are these karate lessons taught by Bruce Lee reincarnate? Because that is the only way anyone is paying $1000 month.

Re: Dad, Are We Rich?

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That 4% is empirically derived from data covering the 20th century and is appropriate for earlyish retirement. There's two reasons to be more conservative: 1) We may be in a low-yield world for a long time. 2) Those studies were based on earlier retirement, not on people leaving the workforce in their 20s and 30s, the way that some very lucky HN readers may do.

To follow up with your first point, there's been some analysis suggesting that financial markets today are more efficient than they were in the 20th century, which means that price discovery happens more quickly. Historically, the markets returned 8-10% for people invested in indices. I've heard that the market returns today are closer to 3-4%, so even with FIRE you'd realistically need to budget for 1-2% to accommod…

I'm not sure that the cited figure of 3-4% return today is truly representative of recent years.

For example, for the popular pick VTSAX (Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund), if you look at the average total return % for recent windows of time:

- YTD: 16.23%

- 1-Year: 4.43%

- 3-Year: 13.28%

- 5-Year: 9.97%

- 10-Year: 14.15%

- 15-Year: 8.91%

The 1-year number is just skewed by the late 2018 market correction in the short term.

Source: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/betaquote.html

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