Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO • Hacker News Board

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#121

Post by gamblor956 » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:18 PM UTC

spyspy wrote: post #40

japhyr wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know people who love spin classes. They're not just buying an exercise bike. They're buying a really nice bike, and membership in a global community of people who also love spin. It really does seem like getting to go to a spin class any time you want, in the privacy of your own home. I have way more than $2k in outdoor gear, because my favorite exercise is trail running and climbing mountains. If riding an indoor…

I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what I see as an expensive niche product.

It's cheaper than a normal road bike... This past weekend I witnessed hundreds of people compete in a triathlon, each of them riding a bike that probably had tires more expensive than my bike. The top men and women were riding $10,000+ bikes. And they all own multiple $$$ bikes, specialized to the particulars of the course they're racing.

A $2000 Peloton that you can train in for recovery or when the weather is bad? That's a bargain by comparison.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#122

Post by spyspy » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:20 PM UTC

bstar77 wrote: post #54

spyspy wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what I see as an expensive niche product.

You made a pretty inflammatory comment: "the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work". He's just explaining that there is a market. It's probably an enthusiast market as well as wealthy people that can make this an impulse buy, but the opportunity for growth is to convince a much more general market to finance the bike and justify the monthly costs like they do their cable/…

Sorry it wasn't meant to be inflammatory, brevity is hard. But has any fitness fad ever threatened the cable industry? I don't see anyone cancelling their netflix subscription in order to afford this thing. But based on all the responses claiming there's "tons" of market I'm still inclined to disagree. The market seems to just be people already really into cycling (either outdoors or spin classes) and are currently pouring money into those hobbies. Maybe it's a wildly bigger market than I imagine but if I was putting my money on it, and we're talking about an IPO here, I'd say that Peloton's best growth will soon be behind them and they're trying to cash out while they can.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#123

Post by HansLandaa » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:23 PM UTC

spyspy wrote: post #6

codeulike wrote: post #2

When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920

My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply. Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a $40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do…

I don't see the value proposition in this business model. You can have a full time membership at gym with in person cycling classes not to mention yoga classes, saunas, pools, weightlifting equipment and cardio equipment for the same price as their subscription.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#124

Post by jstarfish » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:26 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #95

wlesieutre wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better…

I've been playing "Space Pirate Trainer" on my new Quest and was shocked at how worked-out my legs felt afterwards from dodging incoming shots by squatting/leaning.

I had similar results with "Police 911" in the arcade in the early 2000s. Fun times!

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#125

Post by scarface74 » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:43 PM UTC

Johnny555 wrote: post #104

smacktoward wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? In an age when wealth is highly concentrated among a few people, you can make a lot of money selling those few people absurdly overpriced luxury goods. Are there lots of them? Not really. But they have all the disposable income, so...

Maybe you can make a living at selling $50,000 jewelry to the very wealthy, but I'm not sure you can make much of a living selling a $3000 bike to the 1%.

You're not just selling the bike, you're also selling subscriptions. On top of that, there is the gamification of competing with other people/yourself.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#126

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:47 PM UTC

codeulike wrote: post #2

When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920

[deleted]

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#127

Post by xchaotic » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:47 PM UTC

I really struggle as a potential investor in this (after IPO).

The business is real and lucrative and profitable. This is already so much better than say Uber. But the equities market demands perpetual growth and I'm not seeing enough audience for this in the future, who have not already bought it. In other words I feel it would be a very nice private company but it might struggle a bit as a public one.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#128

Post by scarface74 » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 9:51 PM UTC

HansLandaa wrote: post #123

spyspy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply. Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a $40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do…

I don't see the value proposition in this business model. You can have a full time membership at gym with in person cycling classes not to mention yoga classes, saunas, pools, weightlifting equipment and cardio equipment for the same price as their subscription.

I don't have a Peloton at home but I do have a treadmill, elliptical, and some weights and getting a stationary bike is on my list. It is really convenient not to have to go through the ceremony of going to the gym. I can go to the room across the hall and work out anytime in front of my TV. You really don't need a lot of different weightlifting equipment to stay in shape. Just an adjustable weight bench (which I have) and adjustable dumb bells.

You can stream Yoga classes if you want. I also don't have to be around germ infested sick people in the winter and wait on equipment.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#129

Post by lawrenceyan » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 10:03 PM UTC

ndiscussion wrote: post #88

sneak wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The LCHF diet is not only sustainable, it has changed the lives of many people I know, including people who claim it has improved their mental states, emotional states, chronic pain, and weight gain. I myself was pre-diabetic from the standard western diet of 2000kcal+ daily refined carbohydrates, and have pulled back from the brink by going LCHF. Don’t dismiss it without a little bit of experience. It’s a growing mo…

I read "How Not to Die" recently. By LCHF, are you referring to an "Atkins" diet of sorts? High meat/animal fats, vegetables, low carb, low fruit? I'd be interested in any sources that support that diet for anything other than weight loss - I was under the impression it led to pretty poor health outcomes (apart from bmi/diabetes management)

I recommend taking a look at how ketosis, and the utilization of ketones as an energy source for the brain, affects cognition for more on potential benefits.

Re: Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

#130

Post by nemonemo » Wed, Jun 05, 2019, 10:22 PM UTC

xchaotic wrote: post #127

I really struggle as a potential investor in this (after IPO). The business is real and lucrative and profitable. This is already so much better than say Uber. But the equities market demands perpetual growth and I'm not seeing enough audience for this in the future, who have not already bought it. In other words I feel it would be a very nice private company but it might struggle a bit as a public one.

What if the plan includes expanding to new markets, say China or Europe or even West coast? When I used Peloton in a hotel at late night pacific time, it did not have anything live going on until 2am or something. That made it less attractive as an owl type person.