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A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

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11–20 of 126 posts

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#11
Really seems like Wall Street is in love with the term "shadow banking", because it implies "can't regulate it".

Yet we know exactly who the participants are, the types of firms, and their practices.

Step 1 to better regulation of creative rent seeking is to stop treating it like it's nebulous.

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#12
post #9

If SF, I'm seeing ads all over for 1) Brex (corporate credit cards for startups) and 2) Zerodown (pitching no down payment for homes). It would be quite something if tech and not banks caused the next great recession.

I just looked up Zerodown. How does their model account for the foreclosure risk if there's a real estate recession?

Corporate jingle-mail? It's not like there's any real-world penalty for walking away, and everybody there still gets paid until their last check.

Same as any other startup failure, just with REO bargains on the back end.

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#13

Really seems like Wall Street is in love with the term "shadow banking", because it implies "can't regulate it". Yet we know exactly who the participants are, the types of firms, and their practices. Step 1 to better regulation of creative rent seeking is to stop treating it like it's nebulous.

Isn't the root of the problem this:

> To fund all this loan-making, the shadow banks have turned to insurance companies, pension funds, university endowments and wealthy investors, offering them a chance to buy into a diversified pool of loans that offer returns ranging from 6 percent to 13 percent, depending on the level of risk they are willing to assume.

If some hedge funds and "wealthy investors" want to take on risky investments that are "unregulated" I'm all for it. Would you agree the risks for systemic collapse come in when it's straddled onto say insurance companies or pension funds?

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#14
post #9

If SF, I'm seeing ads all over for 1) Brex (corporate credit cards for startups) and 2) Zerodown (pitching no down payment for homes). It would be quite something if tech and not banks caused the next great recession.

I just looked up Zerodown. How does their model account for the foreclosure risk if there's a real estate recession?

Much higher interest rates presumably. I don't think there's any fundamental reason why you shouldn't be able to buy a house without a deposit. A deposit just shows you can be sensible with money, and therefore the loan is much lower risk for the bank.

But if a bank is willing to take on the high risk in return for very high interest rates there's no particular reason why it shouldn't be possible. It may end up being exploitative, like payday loans, but not necessarily.

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just looked up Zerodown. How does their model account for the foreclosure risk if there's a real estate recession?

Much higher interest rates presumably. I don't think there's any fundamental reason why you shouldn't be able to buy a house without a deposit. A deposit just shows you can be sensible with money, and therefore the loan is much lower risk for the bank. But if a bank is willing to take on the high risk in return for very high interest rates there's no particular reason why it shouldn't be possible. It may end up being…

[deleted]

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#17
post #13

Really seems like Wall Street is in love with the term "shadow banking", because it implies "can't regulate it". Yet we know exactly who the participants are, the types of firms, and their practices. Step 1 to better regulation of creative rent seeking is to stop treating it like it's nebulous.

Isn't the root of the problem this: > To fund all this loan-making, the shadow banks have turned to insurance companies, pension funds, university endowments and wealthy investors, offering them a chance to buy into a diversified pool of loans that offer returns ranging from 6 percent to 13 percent, depending on the level of risk they are willing to assume. If some hedge funds and "wealthy investors" want to take on…

The root issue of credit card bubbles is not that hedge funds and investors may loose on risky investments, but that those same investors are so interconnected with society that society has to bail them out if they end up loosing it all.

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#18
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just looked up Zerodown. How does their model account for the foreclosure risk if there's a real estate recession?

Much higher interest rates presumably. I don't think there's any fundamental reason why you shouldn't be able to buy a house without a deposit. A deposit just shows you can be sensible with money, and therefore the loan is much lower risk for the bank. But if a bank is willing to take on the high risk in return for very high interest rates there's no particular reason why it shouldn't be possible. It may end up being…

My argument is that zero-percent down loans will always end badly, because if you don't have the discipline to pull together even a measly 5%, you don't have the discipline required for home-ownership. And it's not like banks can charge payday-loan like rates on a mortgage, because if you can't afford a small down payment you also can't afford high monthly rates.

These types of loans always increase when credit is cheap, and then they end badly (sometimes very badly) when the economy eventually turns.

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#19
I suspect that there cannot be effective regulation of any industry without a technological overhaul to money such as moving to cryptocurrency and smart contracts.

Especially now with new technologies coming up all the time, companies will just go around the laws.

Doing something like that is pretty far-fetched and would require a new type of technological government. But to me there is a structural problem with the relationship between money and government (in their current low-tech forms) in society.

Re: A new credit bubble gets ready to burst

#20
post #13

Really seems like Wall Street is in love with the term "shadow banking", because it implies "can't regulate it". Yet we know exactly who the participants are, the types of firms, and their practices. Step 1 to better regulation of creative rent seeking is to stop treating it like it's nebulous.

Isn't the root of the problem this: > To fund all this loan-making, the shadow banks have turned to insurance companies, pension funds, university endowments and wealthy investors, offering them a chance to buy into a diversified pool of loans that offer returns ranging from 6 percent to 13 percent, depending on the level of risk they are willing to assume. If some hedge funds and "wealthy investors" want to take on…

What shape would the regulation for the latter look like? Should policy holders or pensioners have the ability to veto these investments? I don't want someone to lose their pension over a poor investment by a greedy fund manager. But I also can't think of how you'd draw a line where the investment is "too risky", or rather "too high of a risk to justify the effects on the persons who would be affected if the investment fell through".
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