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Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

dothemath.ucsd.edu

161–170 of 174 posts

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#161
post #80

isn't the universe expanding at an accelerating rate? if the problem is excess planetary heat, you can use thermosynthesis to accelerate novel thermogenesis in pseudo-living species - imagine endothermic sea sponges cooling the oceans and helping to repopulate at risk ocean animals. "this thing humans do cannot continue" is a weak argument. everything humans do is some expression of the natural state of conditions in…

> if the problem is excess planetary heat, you can use thermosynthesis to accelerate novel thermogenesis in pseudo-living species - imagine endothermic sea sponges cooling the oceans Uh, Thermodynamics. You can’t destroy heat, just pump it around. A heater does not need to expel cold. A cooler needs to expel heat. Stuff can feed on heat gradients. Things cannot feed on uniform heat.

a seebeck generator can exploit airflow above or depth below oceans to convert heat into electricity. what uniform heat? all human heat effects augment the existing temperature cycles which have baked in gradients. thermoelectric processes simply reverse this, it would cause a lot of rain and raise ocean levels as the excess atmospheric water vapor is returned to a liquid state- due to the transformation of heat into electricity which would be stored or used to move the little sea robots around.

is the sun uniform heat? how do ectothermic animals and plants using photosynthesis work? I'm not sure why you think you can magically break thermodynamic symmetry...

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#162
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if the problem is excess planetary heat, you can use thermosynthesis to accelerate novel thermogenesis in pseudo-living species - imagine endothermic sea sponges cooling the oceans Uh, Thermodynamics. You can’t destroy heat, just pump it around. A heater does not need to expel cold. A cooler needs to expel heat. Stuff can feed on heat gradients. Things cannot feed on uniform heat.

a seebeck generator can exploit airflow above or depth below oceans to convert heat into electricity. what uniform heat? all human heat effects augment the existing temperature cycles which have baked in gradients. thermoelectric processes simply reverse this, it would cause a lot of rain and raise ocean levels as the excess atmospheric water vapor is returned to a liquid state- due to the transformation of heat into…

A seebeck generator “converts a heat flux into electrical energy” (Wikipedia), it does not convert heat into electricity.

(Edit: by which I mean, it does not decrease the total amount of heat in the system.)

You need something colder on the other side.

The sun-earth system is not uniform in heat, no. The sun on average is hotter than the earth on average.

Edit: what thermodynamic symmetry are you referring to?

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#163
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a seebeck generator can exploit airflow above or depth below oceans to convert heat into electricity. what uniform heat? all human heat effects augment the existing temperature cycles which have baked in gradients. thermoelectric processes simply reverse this, it would cause a lot of rain and raise ocean levels as the excess atmospheric water vapor is returned to a liquid state- due to the transformation of heat into…

A seebeck generator “converts a heat flux into electrical energy” (Wikipedia), it does not convert heat into electricity. (Edit: by which I mean, it does not decrease the total amount of heat in the system.) You need something colder on the other side. The sun-earth system is not uniform in heat, no. The sun on average is hotter than the earth on average. Edit: what thermodynamic symmetry are you referring to?

the mechanism that generates heat is reversible, that's how we got fossil fuels to begin with (hydrocarbon storage). if you think converting heat flux into electrical or mechanical energy doesn't reduce the total heat flux of the system then it's a perpetual motion engine? you get more energy out than you put in? think it through.

it's powered by a heat differential, you are draining the heat from the system and storing it or dissipating it under motion - reducing the overall flux - over time by cooling the hot side and heating the cool side eventually some equilibrium is reached, depending on how efficient the throughput is and how much heat you have, you then exhaust your temperature gradient and need to move somewhere hotter or colder.

one of us is very confused here. i claim "you can reduce heat locally in the earth system", and give examples: capturing and insulating it (trees, plants), converting it into other types of energy (genetically modified sea sponge/robots), as well as venting it into space through an atmospheric/orbital seebeck ring.

im not breaking any laws of thermodynamics, i am turning the planet into a refrigerator.

edit: to clarify i am claiming it's possible to move heat away from the habitable thin boundary layer by conversion: storage, mechanical use or venting.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#164
post #112

The basic fallacy here is the proposition that all economic activity involves physical work, and hence energy == economic activity. However this is not the case. My economic activity consists of staring at a screen and pressing buttons. It is therefore perfectly possible that energy consumption can level off while economic growth continues. One can imagine a similar conversation between a geographer and an economist…

Pressing buttons is physical work, unless you're doing it via astral projection.

But to create 10 times as much value, you don't have to necessarily press buttons 10 times faster or 10 times harder.

It's possible that by pressing the same number of buttons per year (i.e. the same number of programmer hours worked), the current generation of software in the world could be upgraded to a new, more valuable generation of software.

There's a question of whether new software (presumably with extra features) necessarily uses more energy (per user, per year), but it seems possible that one year's more-valuable-software could be more energy-efficient than the previous year's less-valuable-software.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#165
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A seebeck generator “converts a heat flux into electrical energy” (Wikipedia), it does not convert heat into electricity. (Edit: by which I mean, it does not decrease the total amount of heat in the system.) You need something colder on the other side. The sun-earth system is not uniform in heat, no. The sun on average is hotter than the earth on average. Edit: what thermodynamic symmetry are you referring to?

the mechanism that generates heat is reversible, that's how we got fossil fuels to begin with (hydrocarbon storage). if you think converting heat flux into electrical or mechanical energy doesn't reduce the total heat flux of the system then it's a perpetual motion engine? you get more energy out than you put in? think it through. it's powered by a heat differential, you are draining the heat from the system and stor…

I agree that converting heat flux (or, uh, temperature gradient? I think I might actually mean temperature gradient) into electrical or mechanical energy reduces the amount of heat flux ( or temperature gradient) of the system.

Reducing the temperature gradient(s) of the system does not reduce the amount of heat in the system. When the temperature gradient decreases, that just means that there isn’t as much variation in the temperatures in the system. The temperatures become more uniform. When the temperatures are uniform, you cannot use the temperature in order to do useful work.

.. I now notice that I missed that you mentioned putting things into orbit?

I misunderstood and thought you meant putting the seebeck stuff in the ocean, as if that would cool down the oceans.

Yeah, if you pump heat into places that you can remove from earth, or have emit black body radiation more effectively, that would help.

But, Unless you are ejecting stuff away from earth, there is still a max rate you can radiate away heat at a given temperature? Oh, but, hm, if you made your thing in orbit really really hot, hm.

Is that what you were saying?

Sorry for misunderstanding what you meant about the ocean.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#166
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the mechanism that generates heat is reversible, that's how we got fossil fuels to begin with (hydrocarbon storage). if you think converting heat flux into electrical or mechanical energy doesn't reduce the total heat flux of the system then it's a perpetual motion engine? you get more energy out than you put in? think it through. it's powered by a heat differential, you are draining the heat from the system and stor…

I agree that converting heat flux (or, uh, temperature gradient? I think I might actually mean temperature gradient) into electrical or mechanical energy reduces the amount of heat flux ( or temperature gradient) of the system. Reducing the temperature gradient(s) of the system does not reduce the amount of heat in the system. When the temperature gradient decreases, that just means that there isn’t as much variation…

i did mean the ocean originally, you have heat sponges which sit near the surface and use the gradient between air flowing above the surface, the hotter temperature above, and the cooler temperature of the ocean. the sponges can use the heat to move or they can trap it like charging a battery so you transform heat into kinetic or chemical energy. it occurred to me that a third way is to build a ring that uses the heat exchange between the layers of the atmosphere and space, using the same ectothermic biological principle.

talking about the earth as a system here is a bit of a misnomer. the core up to the mantle is very hot, but that heat only escapes to the surface through lava tubes/vents because the tectonic plates are good insulators. im specifically talking about the part of the earth we care about affecting the temperature of - and you can do this by shifting the heat up, down, storing it or converting it. the atmosphere is more permissive than the hydrosphere, hadal zone or crust.

it's easier to imagine the earth as a ball and things leaving the surface as exiting the ball system. but really when we talk about the earth it's more like a layer on a ball, and if you go deep into the ocean, underground or exit the atmosphere it's all the same type of thing.

as far as i know the climate cycles are a surface feature of the planet, deep underground is more inaccessible to our technology than reaching another star system.

the term is called geosequestration.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#167
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that converting heat flux (or, uh, temperature gradient? I think I might actually mean temperature gradient) into electrical or mechanical energy reduces the amount of heat flux ( or temperature gradient) of the system. Reducing the temperature gradient(s) of the system does not reduce the amount of heat in the system. When the temperature gradient decreases, that just means that there isn’t as much variation…

i did mean the ocean originally, you have heat sponges which sit near the surface and use the gradient between air flowing above the surface, the hotter temperature above, and the cooler temperature of the ocean. the sponges can use the heat to move or they can trap it like charging a battery so you transform heat into kinetic or chemical energy. it occurred to me that a third way is to build a ring that uses the hea…

I had thought you meant sponges at the bottom of the ocean.

Not sure what you mean by storing heat.

You could store energy obtained from (the smoothing-out of) a temperature gradient, but that isn’t storing the heat, just the energy extracted as the temperature gradient goes away. It doesn’t decrease the amount of heat?

And I suppose if you have some endothermic reaction (like melting ice) you can decrease the amount of heat around, (and then if you freeze it again, you release the heat), which is sort of like storing heat, but it isn’t like you can store arbitrarily large amounts of heat this way. You would need arbitrarily large amounts of stuff to have react.

I’m still fairly sure you cannot “transform heat into kinetic or chemical energy”, but rather, you can transform a difference in temperatures, and a potential for heat to be exchanged, into kinetic or chemical or whatever energy?

In the example of that mechanism for converting a temperature gradient into electricity, suppose you had two regions with particular and different initial temperatures , which are in contact with opposite sides of the mechanism. The two regions have the same mass and are made of the same material. How do you expect the temperature of all the parts after reaching equilibrium to depend on the initial temperature? I expect that the total heat will remain the same (even though you did extract some energy as the difference in temperatures went away).

Also, pumping heat around costs energy. To move things against the tendency for temperatures to equalize, costs energy, right?

I don’t understand why the fact that earth is not homogeneous would be a reason to not call it a system?

I don’t see how the specifics of geology and such are relevant here. The question is: under what circumstances can we keep the part of a system that we care about to stay at a low temperature while waste heat is being added to the system at an arbitrarily fast rate, and the only way we have for heat to leave the system is blackbody radiation? (Assuming the system is connected/contiguous and stuff)

Now it sounds like you are suggesting that we just make the inside of the earth hotter while keeping our part cool?

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#168
post #158
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool link, thanks I'll read it. I'm not actually sure right now. Somehow I think that if you make those extra widgets without using more energy, then the extra people who buy and use those extra widgets will end up using more energy in doing so, and their extra purchase and use will, however incrementally, grow the economy as a whole a tiny bit, which will use that much extra energy. So if it's growth, then it can't…

The economy is a complex system, the only way to be sure that when you change something somewhere the energy consumption will remain constant is to put a constraint on it. You could set quotas, increase/decrese taxes to drive it to the desired targets, etc. Imagine the system is at equilibrium at a certain output and energy usage and you discover a device than increases efficiency in the use of energy by 10%. The sys…

Thank you for explaining / taking me through that. I totally agree that it's in the details.

My factory now makes the same amount of sneakers but uses less energy, and I have more profit which I can spend on more things, maybe making new markets viable. And in the macro picture, that extra energy, lower prices, makes some things become viable. And what happens from there regarding energy depends on the details. Very interesting and good, semi-detailed discussion.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#169
If we assume average value of GDP at t = g(t)

Energy usage per point of GDP = f(t)

Then we can obviously construct a hypothetical scenario:

lim t->inf g(t) * f(t) = C

This is obviously possible if one flips it over, making economic growth depend on the rate of which we reduce the energy cost for producing a dollar of GDP.

This obviously means that production must be decoupled from the sheer AMOUNT of physical goods, as those are necessarily limited.

To increase GDP, we do not need to increase the amount we produce but the value of what we produce.

Sure, one way to increase GDP would be to produce two cars for the same resource use as one car would need. And that has limits.

But if I can produce a rocket that can propel something to orbit with the resource use of a car, I’m am not only enabling more rockets being built, but also actively reduce the energy cost of one.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#170
post #14

Tom Murphy's website occasionally comes up in futurist circles. His general point that unbounded exponential growth is impossible is obviously correct, but I find his condescending attitude tiresome and he often exaggerates the apparent validity of his pessimism through questionable arguments. For example, he first insists that the conversation about energy consumption be confined to Earth and ignore space exploratio…

Much of Murphy's math and physics are wrong.

For example to get delta V to go to Mars he adds earth's 11 km/s escape velocity to the 3.6 km/s Mars injection velocity. A freshman aerospace student could tell the speed of a Mars bound ship in a hyperbolic earth orbit is sqrt(11^2 + 3.6^2).

I've done a number of posts calling out Murphy's bad arguments:

https://hopsblog-hop.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-most-common-de...

https://hopsblog-hop.blogspot.com/2014/03/murphys-reply.html

and https://hopsblog-hop.blogspot.com/2018/06/space-meow-boys_30...

I generally agree with him that we live on a fragile, limited planet and need to learn to live within our means.

However I don't see preserving our own planet and opening a new frontier as mutually exclusive. Musk is one of the most passionate space advocates and he's working for a sustainable future (solar panels, electric cars). Some technologies benefit both space development and sustainable comfort here on earth. For example CELSS (Closed Ecological Life Support Systems) technologies needed for space might be used here on earth.

Murphy may be correct that opening a new space frontier is implausible. But he hasn't conclusively demonstrated that's the case.

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