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Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

dothemath.ucsd.edu

31–40 of 174 posts

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#31

> per-capita energy use has surged dramatically over time Per capita energy use seems to be declining in advanced economies[1]. > But if energy became arbitrarily cheap, someone could buy all of it, and suddenly the activities that comprise the economy would grind to a halt...There will be a floor to how low energy prices can go as a fraction of GDP. That seems to be a bizarre understanding of how the economy works.…

“Advances in efficiency or energy production aren't going to be stopped at some point because people are worried about someone buying up all the energy.“

That wasn’t really his point. His point was that even if energy itself is cheap there’s a floor to how it is valued relative to the total economy for such a vital commodity. If you don’t like the buying it up argument you can also think along the line of delivery cost, capital cost etc. Bottled waters are not free, e.g.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#32

I generally liked the Do The Math posts but I thought this was one of the weakest. Physicist: "Right, if you plot the U.S. energy consumption in all forms from 1650 until now, you see a phenomenally faithful exponential at about 3% per year over that whole span." It's not phenomenally faithful. There's an inflection point visible even in his large graph going back all the way to 1650. US primary energy consumption in…

[deleted]

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#33

I think the dismissal of space colonization over a period of 400 years is...unreasonable. We could move all production to Mars for example and only consume the shipped resources. Sure that’s one doubling right there, but we could continue this process.

Mars does look a lot closer in 2019 than it did in 2012. Back then it seemed like no real plan existed, except for one little company not a lot of folks believed in. Now we’ve got billionaires in a space race and suddenly it seems obvious that we’ll colonize space to some degree even in the next 100 years, likely with some aggressive growth. We’ve only recently come off the gloomy decades after Apollo where space exp…

The biotech to terraform (or live under domes sustainably) is a longer ways off though. All the attempts to create biodomes I’ve read about have either failed or cheated on a large scale.

Unless we have an Asimov-esque robot driven “colonization”, but does that fully count?

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#34

Only complaint is the discussion about super computers consuming vast amounts of power. I do think there is still room for many more doublings in efficiency for computers, it will likely require a switch to a completely new technology though. Also a bit more wild speculation... He does not account for the idea of space based manufacturing (he just mentions living in space). It's at least conceivable we could one day…

Where does one get material for space based manufacturing?

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#35
post #13

It’s not clear how meaningful these measurements are anyway. Consider two years: in the first, 1000 tonnes of wheat are produced, and in the second, 500 tonnes of wheat and 300 of steel. Which year, one asks, is more productive? We can measure everything in wheat-equivalent or steel-equivalent or (commodity-basket)-equivalent (i.e. PPP) but ultimately such calculations are just as arbitrary as reduction to wheat bush…

This is why, as all economists agree, measurements of economic growth are completely arbitrary and the economy hasn't changed in any meaningful way that can be called "growth" since the middle ages. ... Oh, wait, or maybe growth actually can be expressed as a quantifiable concept? In this case, the author chooses energy as an objective measurement, because all economic transactions must consume energy in order to occ…

> the author chooses energy

And is thereby begging the question.

Economists value goods using prices.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#36
isn't the universe expanding at an accelerating rate? if the problem is excess planetary heat, you can use thermosynthesis to accelerate novel thermogenesis in pseudo-living species - imagine endothermic sea sponges cooling the oceans and helping to repopulate at risk ocean animals.

"this thing humans do cannot continue" is a weak argument. everything humans do is some expression of the natural state of conditions in their immediate environment, technology is just another convolutional cycle on top of the pre-existing ones, squeezing more efficiency from the raw resources existing there. the planet is not in balance, and ecosystems are not fixed. things are in a state of glacial flux with periods of extreme instability due to various cycle renewals - volcanic, tectonic, asteroid/comet impactor, solar, geomagnetic symmetry breaking, viral.

'man made causes' are a misnomer, they are just accelerated selection events, man happens to be a global selector for almost all living things, and man activity on the planet can be a mass extinction event due to many scaling factors, the most obvious one being the technology cycle mentioned previously, the efficiency it provides can be simplified to 'making more heat'.

it's easy to fall prey to goldilocks thinking - due to limited information and the tyranny of the present. try to think in terms beyond a human lifespan. look at the progress achieved in the past 300 years. if we wanted to we could spend the next 300 years returning earth back to a pre industrial epoch and wipe from the surface of the planet all traces of the modern advanced civilization we created, not by a cataclysm or destructive war but by planned intentional decolonisation. given that its possible and very likely to happen (perhaps a catalyst is required, like a new global religion) over the past 300k-1my this maybe happened multiple times. humans are still here in some form or another and they will continue to be here into the foreseeable future x10 my's, because they have shown capable of surviving (milankovitch scales, 100k, 41k, 23k years).

technology is dominant and makes the smartest humans think in brittle ways. the people shaping rocks for millennia were not stupid, they were just incapable of thinking beyond their stone paradigm. pretend to be a godlike alien silently watching the world from the largrangian point in the earth-moon system. millions and billions of years go by. once life begins on earth it continues into the present, the idea that humans, in the next few thousand years, will somehow pose an unconscious risk to a process that has survived and morphed for billions of years is a misreading of the story. what COULD happen is another mass selection event, where a human bottleneck eliminates 99.9% of all living things. that happened before and it's part of some larger cycle that humans are necessarily a part of (as living things) and what is considered causal could also be simply an expression of a deeper reason for living things to exist - to out compete other living things and monopolize the space available to them.

is the physicist a finitist? seems like he substituted growth which is the economists mantra, for change which is his. predicting the future is a waste of time, as an agent in the world you will either cause the future or be slave to it despite your best efforts either way. if it is knowable it will be unchangeable, given all your free actions will lead to the known outcome. it is clearly unknowable and therefore ununchangeable - since the capacity to measure any deviation or change does not exist. what will occur is as likely to occur or not occur had you participated or not.

my pet theory is that any time you see people attempting a cross-disciplinary leap of faith their parachute often fails to open. good 20th century examples being james watson and william shockley - both making the tempting leap from (bio)electrical systems to socio-communication ones, leading to self-embarrassment. the only interesting problem for the 21st century is how do you transform knowledge from one domain to another and retain it, the only way humans will survive their own extinction without reverting back to barbaric primitivism is to plasticize expertise and mass produce it.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#37

Only complaint is the discussion about super computers consuming vast amounts of power. I do think there is still room for many more doublings in efficiency for computers, it will likely require a switch to a completely new technology though. Also a bit more wild speculation... He does not account for the idea of space based manufacturing (he just mentions living in space). It's at least conceivable we could one day…

Where does one get material for space based manufacturing?

Also from space? Asteroid mining I would think. The trick is to only send things down. Sending things up would negate energy savings I am sure.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#38

I generally liked the Do The Math posts but I thought this was one of the weakest. Physicist: "Right, if you plot the U.S. energy consumption in all forms from 1650 until now, you see a phenomenally faithful exponential at about 3% per year over that whole span." It's not phenomenally faithful. There's an inflection point visible even in his large graph going back all the way to 1650. US primary energy consumption in…

> But, contra the fears of many scientists circa 1960, the limits to growth showed up on the demand side before the supply side. We ended up with a world where widespread obesity is a problem and predicted gigadeaths from starvation did not actually happen.

And I think some people were... "disappointed", for lack of a better word, that this happened. That their fantasies of global collapse Soylent Green-style didn't pan out, that the lackadaisical masses who had the temerity to not give up all modern advances weren't punished by the Dread God Malthus. Call it Puritanical Luddism, call it Apocalyptic Deep Green, call it a dogmatic insistence that any system not under totalitarian control must collapse.

Re: Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist (2012)

#40
post #38

I generally liked the Do The Math posts but I thought this was one of the weakest. Physicist: "Right, if you plot the U.S. energy consumption in all forms from 1650 until now, you see a phenomenally faithful exponential at about 3% per year over that whole span." It's not phenomenally faithful. There's an inflection point visible even in his large graph going back all the way to 1650. US primary energy consumption in…

> But, contra the fears of many scientists circa 1960, the limits to growth showed up on the demand side before the supply side. We ended up with a world where widespread obesity is a problem and predicted gigadeaths from starvation did not actually happen. And I think some people were... "disappointed", for lack of a better word, that this happened. That their fantasies of global collapse Soylent Green -style didn't…

I think it's more about self-unfulfilling prophecies. I mean, a happy ending for Ebeneezer Scrooge doesn't necessarily mean that the Ghost Of Christmas Yet To Come was a liar.
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