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China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

reuters.com

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Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#61

Post by wuschb »

sgent wrote: post #59
dingaling wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This being the same USA that caps foreign ownership of airlines to 25%, for example. And which country was built on unlicensed use of European IP... No country or bloc has a truly free market. Even the EU has rules preferring and protecting indigenous companies. Criticising China alone is just hypocrisy.

China is by far the worst offender. Their laws resemble a developing economy while they are significantly industrialized. Make no mistake that the majority of the US including the Democratic congress support Trump on the goals -- if not 100% on the methods. Quite stupidly the US picked a trade battle with Canada and the UK/EU before going after China. Trump's administration had the termidity to call Canada a security…

Don't assume you talk for the majority without statistics to back it up. Make no mistake, this "Trade War" has the same implications as a real war. The only ones who will eventually suffer are poorest members of our society.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#62

Post by varshithr »

programmarchy wrote: post #31
varshithr wrote: post #3

This is bad for the whole world and reduces the efficiency of the global machine. Now countries have to explore more expensive mines to make up for the demand which could have easily been avoided. It feels like someone is dialing back the productivity of the entire world.

The global supply chain is fragile, energy inefficient, and exploitative. Why place “productivity” above all else?

I thought efficiency, economies of scale and productivity were the points for establishing a global supply chain. Consider containerization, large ships for transport - the cost of transportation is next to nothing.

Take iPhone for example, do you think it would cost less if it was manufactured entirely in the USA (down to the components)?

I would love to hear a counter-argument or example. Thanks.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#63

Post by oblio »

simonh wrote: post #50
oblio wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "depleting" US industrial base is producing 2x what it was producing in 1990: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO :) Which is pretty good growth, all things considered. Mini-rant, feel free to ignore: The alternative perspective which assumes total US industrial domination up to the present day (MAGA/Trump) is quite irrational considering world history: the US had almost no real industrial competition post-…

Production is up, but jobs are down to about half as much as a proportion of the population, and by about a third in real terms. But then unemployment is quite low right now and there are plenty of un-filled jobs. Pay for low wage earners has seen some encouraging gains over the last few years. It's not clear the US actually needs a huge boost in manufacturing jobs. Historically, attempts to preserve or boost jobs ar…

Jobs are down due to automation, nobody's putting that genie back in the bottle :)

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#64

Post by boudin »

sgent wrote: post #59
dingaling wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This being the same USA that caps foreign ownership of airlines to 25%, for example. And which country was built on unlicensed use of European IP... No country or bloc has a truly free market. Even the EU has rules preferring and protecting indigenous companies. Criticising China alone is just hypocrisy.

China is by far the worst offender. Their laws resemble a developing economy while they are significantly industrialized. Make no mistake that the majority of the US including the Democratic congress support Trump on the goals -- if not 100% on the methods. Quite stupidly the US picked a trade battle with Canada and the UK/EU before going after China. Trump's administration had the termidity to call Canada a security…

China is an offender in the eyes of the usa. They are free to have their own policies. They also have every right to have their own policies around IPs and patents.

Now that it makes people unhappy in the US, I get it, it's a different mindset. But as much as the US has the right to disagree with China's policies and vision, China has every right to disagree with the US one. The US government as every right to try to protect its market but China has every right to fight back.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#65

Post by bArray »

AlayaMatrix wrote: post #38
bArray wrote: post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

And we're talking about a trade war that the US started and then escalated, what do you expect China to respond?

> we're talking about a trade war that the US started and

> then escalated

The trade war had already started years before it was declared. China has been strategically taking down Western industries and forcing dependence on them. It was only a matter of time something like this would happen.

> what do you expect China to respond?

Either way this will end the same way, both Countries will have to come to some agreement. The only choice is when. China has had an advantage for quite some time and has gotten away with quite a lot (economic trading status, debt traps, stealing of IP, etc), if they struck a fair deal with the US I'm sure they would write it all off.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#66

Post by bArray »

ummonk wrote: post #46
bArray wrote: post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

How is Sheffield steel an example of rare earth metals?

> How is Sheffield steel an example of rare earth metals?

It's a local (to me) example of China undercutting an industry in order to destroy it and replace it. This is how they achieved dominance in some of the "rare earth" material trading industries.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#67

Post by bArray »

tanilama wrote: post #44
bArray wrote: post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

You are doing it the wrong way. This administration had gone great length to convince China what it wants is not just trade, it wants a surrender from China to address its own confidence crisis with itself. And of course, the bill will be 100% on China. So it is not a game with economical gain any more, it is the game of great powers, and China needs to have its own Trump card and demonstrate the willingness to deplo…

> it wants a surrender from China to address its own

> confidence crisis with itself

What makes you think this?

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#68

Post by zwaps »

simula67 wrote: post #56
zwaps wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, did the US not state what it wants to achieve? It wants China to give the same market access as it enjoys in other countries in the world, including regulating and treating foreig companies as its own companies are treated. Also, IP theft. It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. I wonder what recourse the CCP really has.

> It also seems that in contrast to what you say, other countries are setting up to move away from China, to Vietnam, say. As living standards in China rise, cost of manufacture in China was bound to rise. The Chinese have been preparing for this for quite some time. They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to jo…

Interesting points.

> They have started automation and have begun an ambitious plan of infrastructure lead development called BRI and countries like Italy has signed up to join the project.

Well the move away from China is not because of costs, but because of politics. Especially companies here (EU) are very worried about the IP theft and protectionist actions. Except if you are Mercedes or BMW, China is likely to copy your product and then push you out of the domestic market through government regulation, at least that's what I hear. Italy is special. On the one hand, its domestic politics. On the other hand, how meaningful can such an agreement truly be with an EU country?

> China can slowly start dumping US treasuries and stop buying more.

They already do that. But since this strengthens the yuan, isn't there a limit? So far, it did not seem to affect the US very much.

> China can sanction US companies like Apple operating in China.

While China is becoming an important market, it is a luxury market segment so I think Apple would survive. On the other hand, this would probably see all other companies leaving China very rapidly. I think this is the most realistic outcome, but I'd see China losing in the long run.

> China can start bilateral trade agreements with other countries and use it's financial clout to demand de-dollarization and move international trade to a more neutral currency like the IMF SDR.

What effect should that have except decrease Chinese exports and an increase in US exports? The EU does not do real aka meaningful trade agreements bilaterally. Anglo-Saxon countries would neither. For all other countries, China has been trying to expand its influence since the last five years, at least. They have had success in Africa, but have gotten a bad reputation from it.

> China can invade Taiwan.

I don't see that happening. If Japan, Korea and the US would defend Taiwain's sovereignity, that war would be over very quickly. And with Trump, would you really want to gamble?

> China can refuse to honor sanctions against North Korea

That is true and we have seen Trump trying to fix the NK situation for that reason. However, I feel like the impact would be rather small. I think we have seen that Kim does not really want nuclear weapons just because. If Trump would have lifted sanctions, he'd probably get rid of them.

I guess I shold have asked whether there is any recourse which would damage the US more than China.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#70

Post by 08-15 »

holoduke wrote: post #7

It might in fact decrease pollution. Western powers will have to open up local national mines (those rare earths aren't so rare as people think). With tougher regulations regarding environment. At a significant cost of course.

It's nearly impossible to mine lanthanides in the west. The problem is that they are invariably associated with thorium, and thorium has been declared (in 1980 or thereabouts) to be a source material for nuclear explosives, even though it really isn't. Nobody wants to deal with the regulations around that, so all the lanthanide mines and refineries closed.
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