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China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

reuters.com

31–40 of 82 posts

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#31

This is bad for the whole world and reduces the efficiency of the global machine. Now countries have to explore more expensive mines to make up for the demand which could have easily been avoided. It feels like someone is dialing back the productivity of the entire world.

The global supply chain is fragile, energy inefficient, and exploitative. Why place “productivity” above all else?

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current U.S. administration is nothing but outright hostile against the environment. Those regulations will be laxed and nothing good will come out of this.

Do you think Chinese mines would pollute less than US mines? How many environmental activists do you think exist in China?

That's a fair point. I guess a mine like Mountain Pass in California would still be a much cleaner site than a chinese mine, even though the EPA is now a clown agency basically. Anyone can confirm this?

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#33
post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

It's not just about threatening the US, it's about bolstering the Chinese moral across the nation, building a belief that China is a resilient underdog and the world is against it but it will fight back.

that's exactly what the US propaganda also claims

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#34
post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

"I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats"

This is a cliche problem with these "great power" games. On one hand, neither side can publicly "bend." OTOH, public statements and/or implications that "we'll make them bend" are politically popular.^

Concessions are only possible when the volume of disputes are muted. Once they become national pride issues, or leaders put their own image on the line.... At that point, it's no longer about commodities or tariffs or whatnot. It's about winning.

^China is not a democracy, but that does not mean they don't have politics or that public perception is less important.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#35
post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

What the current US government want to achieve is not clear neither. You can't expect China to say nothing and just abide to whatever.

There's no long term view, China has quite a few things they can use to pressure the US and it will be stupid for them not to use those.

It's a self-harming game and the first one to bend will lose it. The longer US tarifs stays, the more some US companies that depends on those imports will be in trouble. China has plenty of cards to go the same route, controlling a huge part of the western companies production system. It feels to me that this is just a first card, and there's some more damaging ones to both China and the US to come.

And to be honest, with the current US behaviour, between this and Iran, the only thing it achieve is that most of the world will want to be as independant as possible of the dollar in the future

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#36
post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

One could also say that "[China] has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, [so] this was a bad move on their part" about the Huawei gambit.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#37
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One country benefiting more from trade than another isn't the same thing as the other country being worse off because of the trade. They're just not as much better off as they could have been. The goal of these disputes should be to reach a more equitable trading arrangement, not to stop or restrict trade that is 'harming' countries[1]. The Idea that the US is 'losing' due to the trade deficit and that reducing trade…

>The Idea that the US is 'losing' due to the trade deficit and that reducing trade with China will benefit America is utter tosh and even the administration's own trade advisers and negotiators are saying so (a bit more politely). The problem isn't so much the deficit as it is the way the US has been seduced into relying upon the Chinese industrial machine. The US industrial base has been depleting for decades. This…

The "depleting" US industrial base is producing 2x what it was producing in 1990: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO :)

Which is pretty good growth, all things considered.

Mini-rant, feel free to ignore:

The alternative perspective which assumes total US industrial domination up to the present day (MAGA/Trump) is quite irrational considering world history: the US had almost no real industrial competition post-WW2 when all the other industrialized countries were either:

* shattered by wars in their homelands

* or completely cut-off from the rest of the world for 50 years...

So the industrial prowess of the US 1950 - 1970 (relative to the rest of the world) isn't coming back, now we're just headed for a normal equilibrium. One in which the US is still doing quite well from an industrial point of view.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#38
post #21

Firstly, I don't know what they expect to achieve with these threats. I think the US has shown so far that it's not going to easily bend to such threats, this was a bad move on their part. Maybe they knew this, hence using the media to broadcast this message. Still, this very much sounds like escalation talk rather than de-escalation. Secondly, these "rare earths" aren't actually rare, most mines were simply shut dow…

And we're talking about a trade war that the US started and then escalated, what do you expect China to respond?

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#39
Previous administrations tried to appease the CCP, hoping to cajole them into at least a moderate stance on human rights, etc. But the CCP is not a live and let live sort of organization, and merely took advantage of these policies to further their interests and wage a one sided trade war.

Re: China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths

#40

China should be careful here, if this does not work then they are pretty much done for, although the CCP can claim mental victory as usual as they've been propagating it as the silver bullet.

Trump's shutdown of Huawei is a tactical blinder. I can see no move China can make in response that won't end up harming them more than it will the US. China's mercantilist trade policy of the past 40 years is coming back to bite them, just like it did in the 19th century.
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