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Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

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Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#61
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typical lie. In fact nuclear waste management from civilian power has fantastic. In fact all nuclear power stations include cleanup and waste management as part of the cost. Germany problem is not technical but political and anybody that has ever looked into nuclear power in Germany knows this. Not to mention that finding a 'ultimate disposal' a pretty unnecessary and wrongheaded that is only being perused because li…

Really? I'm envious about your government's competency in the matter, in that case! I'm fairly pro-nuclear, at least as part of a broadly renewable energy portfolio, as I think industry and transportation will need at least something more than solar and wind to reach none-emission energy production saturation any time soon. However, if my own Government's record is anything to go by here in the UK, waste management i…

We need to differentiate between a number of different problems.

One is cleanup of nuclear sites, in that are there is a separation between civilian nuclear reactors and the much, much more problematic site management for nuclear waste from nuclear weapons production. Most problems from civilian sites date back to the early days of nuclear and most states have put in place some live cycle protocols for these sites.

Old nuclear weapons production sites are a whole lot of a bigger issues and its a desperate topic. Its not fair to accuse nuclear power of being problematic based on issues from those sites.

In general, I would argue most of these problems date back to the early days of nuclear technology and should not be used as a argument against new nuclear power.

In terms of waste management from civilian waste there is a very good argument to be made that putting all that waste into a long term storage (1000s of years) is not a smart thing to do. The nuclear waste is so small in overall size and relatively easy to story that it is not really a pressing issue for the next couple decades or even small number of centuries.

The technologies to use the energy from nuclear waste will not happen unless nuclear energy get used and finds larger commercial adoption. If you believe in 200 years nuclear will not exist and solar and wind will be used, then these technology will never exists. However if you assume that humanity has any kind of nuclear future, these technologies will very likely exists and that nuclear waste will be considered a resource.

Technically its pretty clear that we can build such long term facilities for the eventual small amount nuclear waste without much technical difficulty. What bother me is the push to demand that this problem is handled, before any other nuclear innovation can take place. It is used as an argument against nuclear even if the problem is not pressing in the least and compared to the continued exists of coal and utterly disingenuous way to attempted prevent usage of nuclear technology.

Finnland has build a repository called, Onkalo spent nuclear fuel repository, and has shown that this is not really that crazy of a thing. Again, for me this is a problem that should be pretty far down on the list of priorites to solve for the world. The reason it doesn't exists in most countries is political, not technical. See the Yucca Maintain political shitshow while at the same time much better sites exists in the US but those can't be considered because of political deadlock.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ft Worth is fed by a massive supply of cheap wind energy from West Texas as well as natural gas and coal plants. Roof top solar isn't that viable here. Not many people want a $20-30k installation on top of a $200-400k house and the energy prices just aren't high enough to substantiate it.

Mostly right. Thought installation is more like $10-20K these days.

What's the insurance cost in Ft. Worth?

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-wort...

My relatives have had to replace their roof twice in the last 15 years. What's the hail-proof solar cost?

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the lead time required to bring new nuclear generation capacity online, it probably makes more sense the other way around: before you get too serious about letting the nuclear power industry die, you just really need to be sure it's feasible to replace it with solar and wind. (I don't love that nuclear reactors, as opposed to the turbines that generate electricity from the steam they produce, should be in the h…

> having a profit motive involved in such a safety-critical set of processes is a recipe for disaster The empirical evidence of Chernobyl is a small sample, but points in the opposite direction.

Chernobyl had a different perverse incentive, in that perceived failure to perform under a command economy such as that of the Soviet Union could be and often was individually punishable.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#64
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The urgency of needing to deal with climate change mandates we do both renewables and nuclear. We have the resources to push hard on both sides. There's this idea that we should prioritize resources on one or the other. In my opinion, we have plenty of resources such that we'll reach diminishing returns (due to employment/skill/geographical/material bottlenecks) if we applied all of those resources to one or the othe…

> We have more money than time (and costs of nuclear, if scaled out, are exaggerated). Getting the money from the taxpayer or energy consumer is the number one obstacle to all of these things. The costs of nuclear if anything seem to be underestimated: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/dec/21/hinkley-point-c...

The cost of nuclear is maximized when we're speaking of one site. That's why I mentioned scale out of nuclear. You're not going to get a beneficial learning curve unless you're building and siting lots of power plants with the same contractor(s).

Even with inflated costs, however, the extremely high latitude of the UK and its need for wintertime heat mean that the amount of renewable curtailment needed to ensure sufficient carbonfree wintertime energy make nuclear still cost competitive in a carbonfree scenario.

Generally speaking, no halfway competent investment in carbonfree energy should be opposed, IMHO. We don't have time to fight such internal battles when we're fighting anthropogenic climate change.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#66

If other low-carbon sources, namely wind and solar PV, are to fill the shortfall in nuclear, their deployment would have to accelerate to an unprecedented level. In the past 20 years, wind and solar PV capacity has increased by about 580 gigawatts in advanced economies. But over the next 20 years, nearly five times that amount would need to be added. This is misleading enough to make one question every "fact" stated…

Going from 5-580 is much easier than going from 580->2500. Just ask anyone how hard it was to make their first 100,000, million, billion, etc. Using multiples is actually oversimplifying the issue (i.e. "to make a hundred dollars, you just have to make $10 10 times, so making $1000 from $100 should be just as easy")

I'm not convinced, solar is only now becoming cost competitive, that means for most of this period it was more expensive than its competitors. Now its getting into the realms of being the cheapest option, so why would growth be harder to come by?

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#67
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fairness, no one needs to be convinced that nuclear plants are better than coal plants. The problem is the renewables. In Iowa, they are in the process of shuttering their nuclear plants. Now no one in Iowa was out protesting the plants or anything, but here's the issue. Windmills have reached a level of practicality and low cost that encouraged Iowans to slap them up almost everywhere. (Seriously, drive through I…

> no one needs to be convinced that nuclear plants are better than coal plants Germany decided to shut their nukes before their coal plants

In a panic over a Tsunami - note that Germany doesn't have a coast to speak off and is not prone to tsunamis.

It was also used to keep the Greens on side though you do have to ask who benefits and is keeping coal plant open longer really a green solution.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the lead time required to bring new nuclear generation capacity online, it probably makes more sense the other way around: before you get too serious about letting the nuclear power industry die, you just really need to be sure it's feasible to replace it with solar and wind. (I don't love that nuclear reactors, as opposed to the turbines that generate electricity from the steam they produce, should be in the h…

I'd like to point out that nuclear generates power via steam that spins a turbine. It's how you create the steam that's different. As far as for profit reactors vs. non-profit, do you have any examples of this? The ones I'm aware of (in the U.S.) are utility owned but tightly regulated.

That’s the steam to which I’m referring, yes. The best example I have of nonprofit reactor operation, and the safety culture which such a paradigm can support, is the US Navy; while nuclear-powered submarines have been lost on two occasions, neither loss resulted from a reactor accident, and indeed the US Navy has never had a reactor accident. [1] I’m not the first to suggest this model could be productively applied to civilian power generation; I remain uncertain why it seems so uncommon for other “Atomkraft? Ja, bitte!” folks to do so.

[1] https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2008/jun...

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#69

If other low-carbon sources, namely wind and solar PV, are to fill the shortfall in nuclear, their deployment would have to accelerate to an unprecedented level. In the past 20 years, wind and solar PV capacity has increased by about 580 gigawatts in advanced economies. But over the next 20 years, nearly five times that amount would need to be added. This is misleading enough to make one question every "fact" stated…

Err, they say production grew by 580 GW in the past 20 years and that it must grow by another 5x580=2,900 GW in the next 5 years. Nothing misleading and indeed an unprecedented production increase. It's not the ratio that is hard, it's the raw amount.

> their deployment would have to accelerate to an __unprecedented__ level

Parent comments point is that the 5x growth is not unprecedentedly fast compared to the past 20 years, its unprecedentedly slow compared to the past 20 years. Contrary to what the quote claims, and in line with projections from the past, the solar business would have to seriously slow down to miss the 5x milestone.

Re: Steep decline in nuclear power would threaten energy security and climate goals

#70
post #4

Haven't nuclear waste recycling and safety features gotten really good in the past few decades? I feel like not many people know just how little waste is created with modern recycling and just how safe nuclear is with modern safety features. Seems like we need a positive PR campaign to help convince folks that nuclear is way better than fossil fuels. This could easily be bipartisan.

also modern airplanes with modern software never crash.
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