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Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

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Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#81
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More important than carbon scrubbing, we need energy innovation and to make environmental damage illegal and stop allowing companies to profit off of it. See my other comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20013495

I think the argument that you posed in your other post to be challenged in one particular way. You claim that there is no time to deploy carbon scrubbing. I immediately see two major issues with this argument. The first is that greenhouse effects are not irreversible. As you remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, you change the heat equilibrium. Even feedback effects can be mitigated both by temperature change…

> The first is that greenhouse effects are not irreversible.

The UN clearly says there is a point of no return, could you please clarify what you are trying to say? https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/gaef3500.doc.htm

edit: better report https://www.egu.eu/news/428/deadline-for-climate-action-act-...

And what do you think about this type of scrubbing? https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/the-search-for-a-perfect-pl...

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#82
post #67

One thing I don't understand is why political leaders aren't all over this? Think about a nation going full green and the effect it could have on neighbouring countries? Or a president understanding, that this problem was of highest importance could be a leader of a global change! Think about the fame! But what do we have instead? Ignorance, unwillingness, a dangerous continuation of the status quo on the state level…

Doing something, I mean really doing something, requires changing our culture. Future generations, if there are ones, will look back at this time and see that we have an oil burning culture. Everything we eat, where we live, fossil fuels have been used to produce and maintain it. If it only was cars that was the problem we would easily solve it. To make a real change a Total War economy would have to be implemented,…

>Doing something, I mean really doing something, requires changing our culture.

It could have already started by respecting the Paris agreement.

In this regard, the US decision to go out of the agreement, to protect the american way of life etc, can be considered as belonging to the same category than crimes against humanity.

How can US people have tolerated this desision ? I mean, from my place, I didn't see a lot of protest.

Such a shame.

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#83

Looks fairly flat in 2000-2008. What happened there?

Methane lifetime in the atmosphere is 11 years, if we "only" put as much in as eleven years ago it will go flat. Pretty hard to keep the curve up if we do not get help from the permafrost which has an enormous amount of methane locked up. Looks like it will blow any day now though!

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#86

The scale of human activity has become so large that what may seem like fairly trivial variations can be quite impactful thanks to the multiplication factor. Until we substantially reel in the global population size the situation will continue to be rather precarious.

What does " substantially reel in the global population size" mean. People that raise this point almost 100% exclusively mean that about "people that are not me"

The best way to reduce population growth is spreading wealth (where that is defined as safe and secure food, shelter, education etc).

People who don't think they need to breed to have a number of descendants survive childhood mortality to look after them in their old age don't have lots of kids.

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will so many climate based doomsday scenarios, how did earth survive for so long? See the other 5 mass extinction events.

I think they were more driven by biological evolution than by climate change, though. At least some of them (Cambrian, maybe also Dinosaurs). Humans are actually very adaptable to all sorts of climates. They've lived in the arctic and in the Saharah. Also, mass extinction events OK, but we are talking about a runaway effect of heating up the atmosphere, turning it into a Venus like planet. That doesn't seem to have h…

> Humans are actually very adaptable to all sorts of climates. They've lived in the arctic and in the Saharah.

Lived? Yes. Thrived? Not so much.

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a nice thought, but even if we accept that the global population doing this would stem the tide of climate change (which I am doubtful it would), one quickly realizes that there is no way that the entire global population is going to stop eating animals, and we are back to feeling hopeless. I’m increasingly convinced that carbon sequestration on industrial scales is the only serious way to solve this problem.

> I’m increasingly convinced that carbon sequestration on industrial scales is the only serious way to solve this problem. This is akin to trying to prevent the dust bowl[0] with giant vacuum cleaners. The environment is a system. We are a function of it, not the masters of it. We need to address the feedback loops causing this crisis that we are creating. Even if that would work - As others have pointed out, we don'…

* Above all else we need energy innovation:

https://www.reddit.com/user/thisisbillgates/comments/auosel/...

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#89
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the argument that you posed in your other post to be challenged in one particular way. You claim that there is no time to deploy carbon scrubbing. I immediately see two major issues with this argument. The first is that greenhouse effects are not irreversible. As you remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, you change the heat equilibrium. Even feedback effects can be mitigated both by temperature change…

> The first is that greenhouse effects are not irreversible. The UN clearly says there is a point of no return, could you please clarify what you are trying to say? https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/gaef3500.doc.htm edit: better report https://www.egu.eu/news/428/deadline-for-climate-action-act-... And what do you think about this type of scrubbing? https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/the-search-for-a-perfect-pl...

Sure, these reports are talking about the point of no return in terms of human activity having an effect. In the grand scale of climate humans play an extremely small role. For instance with CO2 we account for less than 4% of all emissions in the worldwide CO2 system. The reason that our effect is meaningful is because it's a system that's in equilibrium. CO2 was being absorbed and released in a fairly balanced system, though one that does tend to have its own cycles over time. So even small changes to the system can have a disproportionate effect.

In other words imagine 2000 calories is what you need to sustain your weight at your current activity levels. And you increase the caloric intake just 5%. Even though you've added almost nothing to what you regularly consume, you're going to go from zero weight gain to some very non-zero amount of gain. You eat thousands of calories and then adding a hundred more suddenly makes you go from a-okay to weight gain? It's a logical but counter-intuitive problem. The exact same thing is happening with worldwide CO2 levels and the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

But now enter feedback mechanisms. As the Earth heats up natural processes begin to release more and more CO2. For instance through the melting of permafrost or otherwise frozen gases (the likely culprit here). You reach a point that the Earth is producing enough additional CO2 that even if you instantly cut human emissions to 0 it would be unlikely to have any meaningful effect. So when the UN speaks of things such as irreversible change, they are speaking exclusively of solving the problem by reducing our emissions.

Scrubbing does not have this problem. Instead of trying to change our role in the equilibrium (for instance trying to decrease those 100 calories) it works on the system as a whole. And you can scrub arbitrarily large amounts. You could even make places like Venus habitable again with scrubbing technology - though to emphasize - Venus is many many many orders of magnitude away from anything we would need to solve on Earth. There are also other grand motivations for developing it. For instance, atmospheric scrubbing, once well developed, could even begin to work as contingencies against life destroying natural or unnatural disasters - nuclear fallout, mega-volcano eruption, meteorite impact, etc. And the opposite (atmospheric injection) could help resolve natural disasters like gamma ray blasts which are one plausible explanation for the Ordovician mass extinction event. We're still just as vulnerable to many of these dangers today. So these are all very important technologies, but don't have a private economic incentive, so it's one area I think would be wise to consider increasing funding for. And again, there's no better time than now.

Re: Unexpected Surge in Global Methane Levels

#90
post #22

Often I see comments asking what we can do to combat this, or expressing feeling hopeless. While it is not the complete solution, one direct way is by eliminating your personal consumption of animal products. Animal agriculture is a huge contributor to methane production, especially from cows. > Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have large…

I had an impossible burger slider yesterday for the first time — as a fan of the taste of meat, I’m very ready for the non-animal based meat future!

What's their carbon footprint ?
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