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Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

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Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#51

Post by glerk »

ridicter wrote: post #26

If you're interested in getting involved in addressing climate change, here are two options for citizens to get involved: 1) The Citizens Climate Climate Lobby has been around ten years, and it currently has a bill in Congress that has bipartisan (1 Republican) support: The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act ( http://energyinnovationact.org/ ). With this plan, all the revenue from a carbon tax* is directly ret…

> This includes economic and social justice issues.

In other words, it’s co-opting the environment crisis to push for wealth redistribution.

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#52

Post by lazyjones »

simonh wrote: post #31
lazyjones wrote: post #21

So how much was the actual global sea-level rise in the past 10 years and how does it relate to previous estimates?

Current estimates, before this finding, are that it's rising by about 3mm/year, up from an average of 1-2mm/year for the previous century. About 55% of that is estimated to be due to continental ice melt and 30% to thermal expansion of the oceans.

> it's rising by about 3mm/year, up from an average of 1-2mm/year for the previous century

That's a questionable comparison since we don't have reliable data from before 1993.

If the actual sea level rise was 3mm/year recently, we should surely not expect it to rise 25mm/year on average for the next 80 years?

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#53

Post by chiefalchemist »

evandijk70 wrote: post #24

EDIT: The title has been updated: it used to say: "Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise to exceed 2m by 2100" _________________________________________________________________ Incredibly misleading title. The expected ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise are, per the article: 26 cm (Assuming CO2 emissions from the Paris agreement) 51 cm (Assuming CO2 emissions in line with current emissions) 6…

I understand. That said, in retrospect, we seem to be well ahead of "X will happen by Year Y" predictions. I guess my point is, better safe than sorry. Because as it is, we're fast-tracking to worst case.

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#55

Post by lazyjones »

foxyv wrote: post #16

If you are interested in seeing a map of sea level rises, the NOAA publishes a website with one. At 7 ft there are significant coastal differences. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

Here's a more complete picture for the case when all ice melts and sea levels rise by 60+ meters: http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/waterworld.html (note: by a "skeptic")

> Today the Earth has 148 million sq. km of land area, of which 16 million sq. km is covered by glaciers. A sea level rise of 66 meters would flood about 13 million sq. km of land outside Antarctica. Without polar ice, Antarctica and Greenland would be ice free, although about half of Antarctica would be under water. Thus, ice-free land would be 128 million sq. km compared to 132 million sq. km today.

I can't check all the calculations, but this result doesn't seem too terrible since we'd likely be able to migrate affected people in time.

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#56

Post by ridicter »

mauflows wrote: post #35
ridicter wrote: post #26

If you're interested in getting involved in addressing climate change, here are two options for citizens to get involved: 1) The Citizens Climate Climate Lobby has been around ten years, and it currently has a bill in Congress that has bipartisan (1 Republican) support: The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act ( http://energyinnovationact.org/ ). With this plan, all the revenue from a carbon tax* is directly ret…

Anything more I can do to support that bill? Both my reps are sponsors

Thank them for their support (these calls actually matter)! You may also live in a city or state that is passing its own form of climate legislation, and CCL is a great way to get involved with that. Similarly, you could provide support for citizen lobbyists in neighboring districts who don't yet have support from their reps.

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#57

Post by sampo »

glerk wrote: post #51
ridicter wrote: post #26

If you're interested in getting involved in addressing climate change, here are two options for citizens to get involved: 1) The Citizens Climate Climate Lobby has been around ten years, and it currently has a bill in Congress that has bipartisan (1 Republican) support: The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act ( http://energyinnovationact.org/ ). With this plan, all the revenue from a carbon tax* is directly ret…

> This includes economic and social justice issues. In other words, it’s co-opting the environment crisis to push for wealth redistribution.

Not that some wealth redistribution wouldn't be nice, but doesn't it have potential to actually increase global carbon emissions?

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#58

Post by briandear »

simias wrote: post #14
seibelj wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea if that’s possible, what I mean is we should stop trying to get the US and China to agree on anything let alone climate change so we need grand silver bullet solutions.

China does accept the reality of climate change and is enacting policies against it. It might not be nearly enough but it's not fair to lump them with the USA on this one.

Have you been to Beijing? China is in a class all of its own when it comes to pollution. It’s not fair to lump the US in with China.

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#59

Post by SkyBelow »

sampo wrote: post #33
ridicter wrote: post #26

If you're interested in getting involved in addressing climate change, here are two options for citizens to get involved: 1) The Citizens Climate Climate Lobby has been around ten years, and it currently has a bill in Congress that has bipartisan (1 Republican) support: The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act ( http://energyinnovationact.org/ ). With this plan, all the revenue from a carbon tax* is directly ret…

> Green New Deal Aren't they strongly anti-nuclear? Putting science behind ideology is not a very good position to take about climate change.

Science behind ideology, or ideology behind science?

If you look at sociology and anthropology, the evidence of the ability of human civilizations to handle problems with the time scale nuclear waste requires seems to be lacking. That the physics says it can be done safely does not prove that the other fields of science say it is likely to be done safely.

Re: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

#60

Post by SlowRobotAhead »

war1025 wrote: post #37
swarnie_ wrote: post #6

When is the next US election due? We might need a new administration to get moving on this one. You know... Before we're all fucked.

The cynic in me has wondered the past couple days whether all this new climate change coverage is a full-court press by Democrats in anticipation of the next election. Seems to have become a hot topic in the news just within the past few weeks.

See the article. Headline is for the extreme scenario, total clickbait.

There is a massive problem in tying a real issue we don’t understand fully into being synonymous with a specific solution (tax policy) supported by a single political ideology.

It’s a wedge issue being used as bulletproof points to get elected. The politicians who are flying private everywhere and supporting policies like preventing nuclear are not actually interested in solutions, just power.

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