What's really wrong with BlackBerry • Hacker News Board

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#21

Post by alanh » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 6:33 AM UTC

deepu_256 wrote: post #20

alanh wrote: post #10

Remember how everyone likes to note that Apple is never afraid to obsolete itself? Killing OS 9 to start completely new in OS X… Aggressively and constantly re-imagining the iPod… Replacing the iPod (effectively) with a completely new touch-based system (iOS)… beginning the revolution from PCs to iPad-style devices (they are selling as many iPads as they are computers, now). When has Blackberry ever really dared to c…

Cannibalization is not the norm. There are many successful platforms which didn't go the route of cannibalization. Ex - windows. The OS 9 - OS 10 example is more of an exception than the norm. In the case of OS 9 everyone(even Apple people) knew it sucked big time. They tried hard for several years to fix it's problems or try to develop a new one. There was no way for them to continue with OS 9. RIM isn't exactly is…

Eh, even Windows could be argued to have followed this pattern, with Windows NT. Different foundation. They did end up supporting the 9.x APIs on the NT platform, to create Windows XP, but the fact is they still released a “competing” version of Windows first.

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#22

Post by richardw » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 6:41 AM UTC

Legion wrote: post #4

>> "Yes, Android is doing well, but neither RIM nor Apple is giving away its operating system, so it was close to inevitable that Android would eventually get the unit lead" How is that any kind of rebuttal? How does saying that it was inevitable Android would eat up a bunch of market share hand-wave away the fact that it was really bad for RIM's situation that it happened? >> "Yes, RIM's not good at sexy marketing,…

» How is that any kind of rebuttal?

A free competitor in the software world can have more users, but that doesn't necessarily mean your business is failing. Similarly, Apple has had many fewer users than Windows for a long time but it's doing just fine compared to most Windows hardware vendors.

Other phone vendors have moved from Windows Mobile & Symbian to Android, partly due to the free O.S. The customer profile of Symbian or Windows Mobile customers is likely not that of RIM customers, so it doesn't necessarily drive RIM's failure (although it could certainly increase the odds). He's looking for the problem that will mean RIM's failure.

The sexy marketing issue is similar. If RIM has survived okay up until now without it, good marketing might not cause the business to fail. It will certainly add to the danger, but the issue is again discovering the likely primary cause of failure.

That cause seems to be saturation of RIM's main customer segment(s) and an inability to grow outside of those segments. (Obviously, bad marketing and free alternatives are possible root causes of the latter!)

Please don't be driven up the wall - it's just an opinion :)

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#23

Post by pwpwp » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 6:51 AM UTC

alanh wrote: post #10

Remember how everyone likes to note that Apple is never afraid to obsolete itself? Killing OS 9 to start completely new in OS X… Aggressively and constantly re-imagining the iPod… Replacing the iPod (effectively) with a completely new touch-based system (iOS)… beginning the revolution from PCs to iPad-style devices (they are selling as many iPads as they are computers, now). When has Blackberry ever really dared to c…

Why do you glorify doing something new and stupid, when doing good things well is what people really should be admiring. — Linus Torvalds

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#24

Post by gnufreex » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 7:22 AM UTC

alanh wrote: post #10

Remember how everyone likes to note that Apple is never afraid to obsolete itself? Killing OS 9 to start completely new in OS X… Aggressively and constantly re-imagining the iPod… Replacing the iPod (effectively) with a completely new touch-based system (iOS)… beginning the revolution from PCs to iPad-style devices (they are selling as many iPads as they are computers, now). When has Blackberry ever really dared to c…

About Apple killing classic MacOS, it was really kill or be killed. They did it years too late, IMHO.

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#25

Post by Andys » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 7:37 AM UTC

pwpwp wrote: post #23

alanh wrote: post #10

Remember how everyone likes to note that Apple is never afraid to obsolete itself? Killing OS 9 to start completely new in OS X… Aggressively and constantly re-imagining the iPod… Replacing the iPod (effectively) with a completely new touch-based system (iOS)… beginning the revolution from PCs to iPad-style devices (they are selling as many iPads as they are computers, now). When has Blackberry ever really dared to c…

Why do you glorify doing something new and stupid, when doing good things well is what people really should be admiring. — Linus Torvalds

Ironic, given my perception of Linux as doing good things in a mediocre way...

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#26

Post by dshanley » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 7:40 AM UTC

alanh wrote: post #10

Remember how everyone likes to note that Apple is never afraid to obsolete itself? Killing OS 9 to start completely new in OS X… Aggressively and constantly re-imagining the iPod… Replacing the iPod (effectively) with a completely new touch-based system (iOS)… beginning the revolution from PCs to iPad-style devices (they are selling as many iPads as they are computers, now). When has Blackberry ever really dared to c…

They haven't, but they are currently in the process of trying to reinvent their OS - with QNX. Except, they are launching this OS, but leaving all their Java devs behind. The OS launches on the Playbook with only C++ and Flash support if you can believe it. I don't expect them to have significant market share in two years from now.

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#27

Post by VladRussian » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 7:42 AM UTC

once i saw who were among recent RIM's hires, it immediately gave me the understanding what the environment inside RIM is like.

>it seems to have lost the ability to create great products.

yep, that's natural in such an environment. Pundits can discuss various small details of marketing, product, leadership ... It all just noise. Once the rot has spread through the company ... Everybody who worked in similarly failed companies can recognize the symptoms.

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#28

Post by joe_the_user » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 8:20 AM UTC

Isamu wrote: post #2

Very insightful analysis. At the very least read the section "How a computing platform dies" - this is the first I've seen that perspective. I wouldn't mind reading more about this.

Well it is quite interesting.

Is the distinction between "late-adopter" and "mainstream" specific to the author or well known?

If "late-adopters" are a less-than-desirable target audience, what about aiming at the "mainstream"?

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#29

Post by Someone » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 8:33 AM UTC

ergo98 wrote: post #17

timtadh wrote: post #8

"Yes, Android is doing well, but neither RIM nor Apple is giving away its operating system, so it was close to inevitable that Android would eventually get the unit lead." If that is true, why doesn't the Linux desktop have the unit lead? I mean its free, installable on everything, and easily obtainable. This kinda of reasoning simply does not hold. There a loads of reasons why Android is doing well, but I don't thin…

The "Android is free" bit is remarkably foolhardy, so it is surprising that it appears in so many articles. I've heard that Microsoft charges somewhere in the range of $10 / unit for Windows Mobile, generally for an image that you quite literally set some flags and you have your gold copy (at least pre Windows Mobile 7, as my experience was with the CE variants). For Android the individual handset makers take on trem…

It think is even more true than you indicate. http://source.android.com/faqs.html says:

Devices that are properly compatible can seek approval to use the Android trademark.

...

Android Market is only licensed to handset manufacturers shipping devices.

...

The Google apps for Android, such as YouTube, Google Maps and Navigation, Gmail, and so on are Google properties that are not part of Android, and are licensed separately.

I cannot find proof of it, but I would guess neither of these are free.

Re: What's really wrong with BlackBerry

#30

Post by Someone » Sun, Dec 12, 2010, 8:45 AM UTC

Isamu wrote: post #2

Very insightful analysis. At the very least read the section "How a computing platform dies" - this is the first I've seen that perspective. I wouldn't mind reading more about this.

That "you're actually consuming the late adopters", You'll gulp through the late adopters, made me think of a different problem, that of fishing the oceans empty.