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U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

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Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#91
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who goes around implicitly trusting central power. In any aspect of their lives. I can literally think of no one I know who wouldn’t respond to me telling them “hey you should stop implicitly trusting central power” by asking what drugs I’m on if I think they implicitly trust central power. I guess this straw man is necessary to create so some can beat it down, but as far as I can tell such people don’t actually exis…

> Who goes around implicitly trusting central power. In any aspect of their lives. It's required for the government to provide a "social safety net" and more broadly for the Progressive vision of society. That includes Progressive-era reforms in education and retirement, as well as Progressive inspired reforms in healthcare and welfare, esp. the Great Society. These reforms are predicated on the notion of a governmen…

None of that stuff really requires any great level of centralization at all. Many components, like social security, are effectively mandatory requirement savings and could be replicated at the level of an individual if they didn't exist, simply by using the money not paid in social security tax to buy an annuity.

The primary thing you would require any government for at all would be redistributive programs, but that still doesn't require uniformity of centralization. We don't even have it as it is -- the Saudis are some of the richest people in the world, they make most of their money from the US and Europe, yet they pay no income tax to either region.

Meanwhile you could implement redistributive programs even at the level of a city. There is nothing stopping New York City from imposing a land value tax and using the money to fund a UBI, if that's what they want to do.

Centralized government actually interferes with this significantly, because San Francisco or the state of California can't implement its own healthcare policies when they have the US government overriding them, and hoovering up the state's money and sending it to other states, using it for military spending or sending it back with strings attached that require it to be spent on less efficient or less appropriate programs than the state would choose to fund for itself.

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chernobyl only took out 10,000 square miles because they got lucky. If they didn't drain water tanks it could have exploded making a huge portion of the continent uninhabitable. Also, using 17,500 square miles doesn't equal damage. The land could be reclaimed in negligible time by removing the panels, unlike nuclear contamination.

> it could have exploded making a huge portion of the continent uninhabitable Some details and references for this would be nice. I find it hard to believe, though of course sometimes things I find hard to believe turn out to be true :-).

The area under the reactor core was filled with water, and if the corium (molten core material) had contacted that water it would have caused a steam explosion and launched additional material outside of the reactor building.

There's an interesting StackOverflow post relating to this here: [0] That just deals with the size of the steam explosion though, not the potential effects. (And for reference, I've seen the largest explosion that did occur listed as ~10T equivalent)

0: https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/480113/how-large...

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#93

Pretty bad reporting. OK, it contains Pu-239, but how much? If it leaks, what effects will that have?

This is the correct thought process. The linked article from llnl [1] states that “The final plan called for (1) removing all radioactive and non-radioactive debris (equipment, concrete, scrap metal, etc.), (2) removing all soil that exceeded 14.8 Bq (400 pCi) of plutonium per gram of soil, (3) removing or amending soil between 1.48 and 14.8 Bq (40 and 400 pCi) of plutonium per gram of soil, determined on a case-by-case basis depending on ultimate land-use, and 4) disposing and stabilizing all this accumulated radioactive waste into a crater on Runit Island and capping it with a concrete dome.” It goes on to state that “A estimated total of 73,000 cubic meters of surface soil...was recovered by scapping and deposited in Cactus crater on Runit Island.”

Unfortunately, it does not provide an average specific activity for the material stored, only a lower limit threshold. If we assume it was near this lower limit of 14.8 bq threshold (could be the case depending on how often case (3) was used) and assume mostly plutonium-239. Since isotopic distribution is unknown, this is a conservative assumption because the longer half-life will yield a larger mass in the calculation. The molar density can be calculated from the specific activity listed:

Na/m = a x hl/ln(2) = 14.8[decay/s] x 23110[yrs]/ln(2) = 1.57e13 atoms/gram = 2.61e-11 mol/gram

The mass of the dirt collected will be assumed to be wet sand with a density of 1905 kg/m^3 [2] (note that density is actually slightly higher than this due to the plutonium contained). And finally, the volume collected is 73,000 cubic meters, or 1.39e11 grams. So the total amount of plutonium is:

2.61e-11[mol/g] x 1.39e11[g] = 3.63 mol

So our envelope calculation yields about 870 grams of plutonium. So how accurate is this? It is probably on the high side after reading the paper posted by Shivetya [3]. They cite a total inventory of 545 GBq. Using the assumptions above, one would expect an inventory of 2058 GBq.

As for the effects, that’s difficult to tell. Really the two scenarios that come to mind are a constant leaching into the environment or a disaster that results in the total mass being dumped. In the latter case a disaster of that magnitude would likely disperse the material in a biased direction. In this case it would dilute relatively quickly. Impacts from the radiation would probably be apparent close by in the biased direction. A constant leak would depend on the leach rate and leak locations. The NRC defines monthly sewer release limits of material in Table 3 of 10 CFR Part 20 Appendix B - standards for protection against radiation. The number given for Pu is 84 uCi or 3.108e6 Bq. Based on the plutonium inventory calculated and neglecting material decay, the material could leach out within NRC limits over a period of 55 thousand years (2058e9/3.108e6/12). Note that this number is likely highly inflated given the assumption that all radioactive material is Pu-239 and the comparison in [3]. Using the number from [3] and assuming all activity is Pu, the duration would be 14 thousand years. However this is a rough analysis that does not account for isotopic distributions, so please take the results with a grain of salt.

[1]:https://marshallislands.llnl.gov/enewetak.php#cleanup

[2]:https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/amp/dirt-mud-densities-d_...

[3]:https://marshallislands.llnl.gov/ccc/Hamilton_LLNL-TR-648143...

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, so how is everyone so sure that "modern nuclear reactors" will encounter no problems?

To use one example: Nuclear fuel is in liquid form, in a vessel that has a frozen plug of material being actively cooled at the bottom. If the reactor ever loses power, the plug melts, and the fuel drains into a collection pool, where due to simple geometry it cannot reach criticality. Something bad (earthquake, tsunami, etc) could still happen that causes a plant shutdown. But there's no pressure vessel (other than…

I'm sure there was some explanation as to why superscalar CPU architectures were secure and foolproof as well. The point is that no human mind is capable of simulating reality and accounting for every single possibility. There are design flaws and unexpected surprises that make even the most well thought out plans and explanations seem foolish in retrospect. The point is determining the worst case and assuming it will happen.

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#95
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In engineering and safety culture, iteration is necessary to approach an optimal system - the problem is here: How can we learn from what happened decades ago when the cause wasn't a part, a design or a process, something that can be simulated with a high degree of confidence? But a decision necessarily based on lots of unknowns? What can we do to be able to learn from it next time? The answer is that you design sy…

The thing is that we have a decent idea of how to engineer things well. That's easy. Throw money and factors of 2 at it until the cows come home. That's not my concern. How do we know they'll actually do the proper engineering? How do we not have another Boeing 737 situation but for a nuclear reactor? I know as engineers we want to turn everything into an engineering problem but sometimes there are just humans who do…

Now you're asking a completely different question. It's not a matter of not knowing what to do, it's a matter of not doing it.

But nothing about nuclear is unique in that regard. If you have incompetence then we get Deepwater Horizon, Bophal, companies dumping cadmium, lead, mercury, cyanide, nitrogen, phosphorous or acid in to rivers and groundwater, mining runoff, destroying rainforest, dam failures, basically the entire list of Superfund sites in the US. Those kinds of things can be significantly worse than even a full scale nuclear meltdown. And on top of that, chemical pollutants have no half-life -- they're forever.

There is a 3700 acre coal mine fire that has been burning in Pennsylvania since 1962, causing the town to be abandoned:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_mine_fire

It's the same problem with anything -- even solar is silicon. Take a look a the environmental history of Silicon Valley for a morbid lesson in how wrong that can go.

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To use one example: Nuclear fuel is in liquid form, in a vessel that has a frozen plug of material being actively cooled at the bottom. If the reactor ever loses power, the plug melts, and the fuel drains into a collection pool, where due to simple geometry it cannot reach criticality. Something bad (earthquake, tsunami, etc) could still happen that causes a plant shutdown. But there's no pressure vessel (other than…

I'm sure there was some explanation as to why superscalar CPU architectures were secure and foolproof as well. The point is that no human mind is capable of simulating reality and accounting for every single possibility. There are design flaws and unexpected surprises that make even the most well thought out plans and explanations seem foolish in retrospect. The point is determining the worst case and assuming it wil…

I think Asimov's The Relativity of Wrong applies here.

( https://chem.tufts.edu/AnswersInScience/RelativityofWrong.ht... , it is an enjoyable essay to read. )

You are correct that flaws and surprises lurk in all human endeavors. But that does not mean that all potential errors are in the same scale or class. We do not know everything, but we know far more than nothing!

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proponents: Newer reactors are safer than older designs. The old designs are still safer than any other alternative and much safer than fossil fuels, but the newer designs are even better and we should build those. Opponents: Don't build new reactors. Opponents: See? See? You said... Proponents: ...that newer designs are safer than older ones and even older ones are safer than alternatives. Which remains true. ... Po…

> impossible standard Not the case. The worst case with nuclear is much worse than with solar, even if the possibility is unlikely. We expect insanely high standards for airplanes and the standards should be even higher for nuclear plants. We should account for the possibility that civilization collapses or an unexpected event reduces a plant to rubble. In both of those cases solar is fine but nuclear is not.

> The worst case with nuclear is much worse than with solar

It isn't. The worst case with solar is that they're manufactured with lead, cadmium and other toxic substances that pollute the environment if they're improperly manufactured or disposed of. If you abandon a solar farm, the panels get damaged by weather and then the heavy metals leech into the ground. The environmental impact of that for a solar farm with power output equal to a nuclear reactor would be as bad or worse than a nuclear meltdown.

On top of that, the real worst case for solar is that the storage technology it needs to replace carbon energy sources never becomes economical, and then without having built nuclear today, we get a level of climate change that causes human extinction.

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#98
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its "worst case" pales in comparison to fossil fuel's "guaranteed outcome by 2100." I'm fairly certain nuclear catastrophe is far worse than global warming.

I can’t say I agree with you there. Worst case for nuclear power is highly contaminated local areas ( highly unlikely with modern designs), whereas the worst case for climate change is global environmental collapse.

Of course a serious nuclear incident may cause a reversion to fossil fuels. That may not be rational but that is human nature. Not much you can do about that.

So the worse case of nuclear power is actually global warming caused by fossil fuels. And an eye watering San up bill that has opportunity costs for decades.

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#99
without question the lack of overfishing in these waters, like in chernobyl ensures that if you did a real study on the health of this area, biodiversity is thriving, because people and development are lacking. it's amazing how much nuclear fear mongering there is , persistenly. with all the idiots listening to washington post and other venues about shutting down nuclear power , by fear mongering it with nuclear weapons.

alas, this is how progress dies, and artificial scarcity is imposed, no less of a low c02 and zero emission source of energy.

Re: U.S. put nuclear waste under a dome on a Pacific island. Now it’s cracking open

#100

Pretty bad reporting. OK, it contains Pu-239, but how much? If it leaks, what effects will that have?

This is the correct thought process. The linked article from llnl [1] states that “The final plan called for (1) removing all radioactive and non-radioactive debris (equipment, concrete, scrap metal, etc.), (2) removing all soil that exceeded 14.8 Bq (400 pCi) of plutonium per gram of soil, (3) removing or amending soil between 1.48 and 14.8 Bq (40 and 400 pCi) of plutonium per gram of soil, determined on a case-by-c…

Just wanted to add that the mass leakage rate to remain under NRC limits would be 1.39e11 [g] / 55000 [yrs] = 2527 [kg/yr] = 7 [kg/day]

Put into that context, it might not be too absurd to think leakage would remain under NRC limits if only small cracks were present (assuming those limits are actually applicable to this scenario)

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