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U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

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Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#31
post #17

It's too bad this analysis was done against the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is a price weighted index of only 30 large cap stocks and widely considered to be a poor indicator. Something like the S&P 500 index would would have been a better choice though it doesn't go as far back as the DJIA.

"though it doesn't go as far back as the DJIA"

That's not a big of a deal, it has been calculated backwards using historical data.

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#32
post #28

"Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to…

The Kennedys speeches were on another level

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#33
post #28

"Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to…

That's not badly put, but aircraft carriers don't grow on trees, and it seems that historians correlate GDP with military success.

Which has been bumming out people for much longer than that example of Greece becoming a province of the Roman Republic.

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with "save in good times, spend in bad" is that people don't actually save in good times. Even if you raise interest rates, people will still borrow money when times are good because that's when there's profit to be made by investing the borrowed money. They do it less when rates are higher, but they still do it. The "problem" with the natural cycle is that in bad times people start to default on their de…

You missed an option C: forgive the debt (like default but less consequences) but keep companies and people accountable for externalities with really tight control.

Could you please lend me half a million for a couple of years?

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#35
post #32
post #28

"Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to…

The Kennedys speeches were on another level

What a difference 50 years have made.

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, and neither were completely his fault. However, I do fault him for juicing a good economy when stimulus would be more effective during a downturn when not wasted during upturns. Save in good times, spend in bad would do a lot for stability. 2008 could have been handled much better if he was disciplined enough during the recovery in between (besides, taking more money out of the system would have acted against bub…

The problem with "save in good times, spend in bad" is that people don't actually save in good times. Even if you raise interest rates, people will still borrow money when times are good because that's when there's profit to be made by investing the borrowed money. They do it less when rates are higher, but they still do it. The "problem" with the natural cycle is that in bad times people start to default on their de…

> 'What we need at this point is people paying off their debt!'

Debt... ('contextless OT) ...shortage... damn! Just for a second i remembered a picture of the historic, ancient egypt, where organs were 'weighted' - and that the last time i had seen it, was in the movie repo men ^^

> [P-:] //wiki/Repo_Man_(film)

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, and neither were completely his fault. However, I do fault him for juicing a good economy when stimulus would be more effective during a downturn when not wasted during upturns. Save in good times, spend in bad would do a lot for stability. 2008 could have been handled much better if he was disciplined enough during the recovery in between (besides, taking more money out of the system would have acted against bub…

The problem with "save in good times, spend in bad" is that people don't actually save in good times. Even if you raise interest rates, people will still borrow money when times are good because that's when there's profit to be made by investing the borrowed money. They do it less when rates are higher, but they still do it. The "problem" with the natural cycle is that in bad times people start to default on their de…

> 'What we need at this point is people paying off their debt!'

Debt... ('contextless OT') ...shortage... damn! Just for a second i remembered a picture of the historic, ancient egypt, where organs were 'weighted' - and that the last time i had seen it, was in the movie repo men ^^

> [P-:] //wiki/Repo_Man_(film)

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#38
post #2

It would be interesting to see Clinton's return extended one more year. He exited right before the dotcom bubble imploded.

This sounds like you're suggesting to p-hack.

"Let's just adjust our window because we know something is going to change and it would be interesting."

Meanwhile, the results are voided.

It's seemingly minor adjustments like thesr that have been causing tons of incorrect data to get published in science for way too long now.

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#39
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people forget Bush was fighting an energy recession, and those were a godsend to many. my brother used the money to apply for college and buy books to give college a go and see how it is, he's an MD now. I disagreed with almost everything Bush did, but that was not one of them. The same is true for Trump, in the sense had it not been for the Trump tax cuts, we would be in a recession right now.

A year later, it’s very clear that the tax cuts boosted gross domestic product and jobs a bit — and just for one year. Its effects are fading as U.S. GDP growth appears likely to weaken in 2019. The only thing that “rocked” were corporate profits and the stock market. And we’re facing trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-the-trump-tax...

that doesn't conflict with anything i said.

Re: U.S. Presidents and Comparative Stock Market Performance

#40
It seems to me that these results don't take into account the fact that presidents inherit the policies of the previous terms. Some presidents can ride on the coat tails of former policies and take the credit or blame just because they're the ones serving. It can take as long as 8 years before the consequences of bad policy can rear its ugly head.
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