Ibn Khaldun is (in my definitions) the earliest example). He describes mesapotamian history, for example, as a process where barbarians take a city, gradually become soft urbanites and then it happens again. It's a model rather than an occurrence.
It's a predecessor of Adam Smith, Marx, and even 2019 people like Yuval Noah Harari. The thesis is a model. Facts are tests and/or values for the model, not the thesis.