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Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

economist.com

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Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#231

Post by 013a »

chollida1 wrote: post #4

When Lyft was doing their road show there were a few analysts who had price targets of $45 as Lyfts fair value at IPO with an acknowledgement that the amount of shares available would double, and possibly triple when all shares were off restriction, meaning that the $45 price target was a best case and we would probably see far lower once people can sell. This is a company that has maybe 33 million shares outstanding…

As they say; the market can stay insane for far longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#232

Post by amelius »

wonderwonder wrote: post #9

Very interesting process going on right now with Lyft & Uber both losing money and some of their drivers trying to stage protests and strikes. The drivers appear to rely on the company as their primary source of income and want more money yet at the same time the companies are operating at a loss. Were they to increase wages (as % of every ride) it stands to reason the losses would widen. If they get to wide the comp…

I suppose one reason Uber is operating at a loss is that they are throwing a lot of money at making the drivers obsolete. No wonder these drivers are angry.

How would you feel if your boss took a part of your salary and spent it on new technology intended to eliminate your job?

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#233

Post by 013a »

LifeofPi314 wrote: post #34
chollida1 wrote: post #4

When Lyft was doing their road show there were a few analysts who had price targets of $45 as Lyfts fair value at IPO with an acknowledgement that the amount of shares available would double, and possibly triple when all shares were off restriction, meaning that the $45 price target was a best case and we would probably see far lower once people can sell. This is a company that has maybe 33 million shares outstanding…

Could you please tell me how do you find out what the borrow rates are for short shares and how many are being shorted?

Thinkorswim (from TDAmeritrade) has it for free. Just open a brokerage or IRA or something and you can access a paper trading account there; its among most powerful trading platforms widely available to consumers, and is surprisingly user friendly.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#234

Post by Spooky23 »

pkaye wrote: post #223
Spooky23 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I hire a guy to paint my house for $100, and the paint costs $105, but the painter paid for it already, that’s objectively unfair.

Why would the painter accept a job where they lose money?

He needs cash now.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#235

Post by DenisM »

OliverJones wrote: post #76

Fundamentals question: Can somebody explain how these ridesharing companies expect to turn a profit, eventually? If you lose 50 cents on every ride, how do you make it up in volume? Every ride is subsidized by the Sand Hill Road crowd. They're a great deal. I took a 40-min ride yesterday for US$12.50 in a high-cost-of-living traffic-clogged city. How can that make sense? A ride in a sketchy 1970s-era New York City gy…

The more people use Lyft every day, the more chances someone else is going the same place you are, so picking up an extra passenger on the road (and spreading the cost) becomes viable. I don't know if it will work, but I think that might be one of the things they are hoping for.

One other option would be self-driving cars. Looks like we hit a self-driving winter though.

Another one is lobbying for less parking in towns, both improving the area and creating a captive audience and an environment where people are likely to share the ride. It's ambitious, kind of like terra-forming North America, but hey!

There is also something to be said about novelty. When Uber/Lyft started there were many people just doing it for fun and beer money, but that sort of fun wears out and what you have is a different demographics - people who actually try to make a living. If Lyft/Uber were not doing demographic analysis of their driver cohorts they might have gone to sleep expecting profits with a bunch of yahoos driving others around for fun, and woken up with a bunch of blu-collar worker demanding rights and wages.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#236

Post by GCA10 »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #201
GCA10 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber has a huge community operations team that's in charge of making sure that its drivers stay productive and at least semi-at-peace with the way the system works (and evolves!) There's a lot more human-to-human work needed in this business than for a social-media site, or an automated online-ad service. That's where a lot of the 22,000 employees are, and if Uber could thrive without them, it surely would have alrea…

----Help brand the Uber name and get driver-partners excited to be on the road Why is this essential? It seems like a fluffy marketing position to me.

It is fluffy marketing. But bear in mind that when you're offering a B-minus experience to drivers in terms of pay, hours and quality of life, it takes a lot of fluffy marketing to minimize driver churn or corrosive behavior.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#237

Post by LifeofPi314 »

tomcam wrote: post #208
LifeofPi314 wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in this market this is an opportunity of a lifetime to buy at these levels.

Not asking this question to be rude or snarky. Can they make money at all? If not why would their prices be discounted now? It seems to me as a layperson that they have both funded their growth by discounting rides at an unsustainable rate. The sustainable price seems to be pretty much what taxis charge. (No complaint here. I believe in paying my, ah, fare share. I’d be quite willing to pay that rate for Uber/Lyft be…

Lots of value props here

- Cut R&D cost

- Grow in scale

- Force people out of buying their own cars by providing rides

- Carpool at work programs

- Lyft Shared rides - which taxies could not exploit efficiently, makes it a win win for riders and drivers

- Imagining auto-driving cars in the near future, that can change economics

- Cities that were generally transit heavy, can exploit this alternative, since car usage was low to go to work

- Their partnering with Rideshare programs at work, leads to a very cheap commute on demand, which cuts into the vanpool market - with flexible timings

- Even with same prices as taxis - it's put so many people and cars to work that were sitting in the driveway. I see some form of Government subsidy here too as an option ( since good for the environment, and the economy in general)

- Markets to expand in - Commercial Freight( unused capacity transportation) - basically structuring and leveling the playing field wrt rates, policies, contracts and availability via a digital centralized experience

- Food delivery

- Many more sure I'm missing

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#238

Post by MiscIdeaMaker99 »

airstrike wrote: post #177
jjeaff wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I think real estate agents get too much when it come to higher dollar properties, it doesn't compare well to Ubers service. A lot of Ubers cost is fixed, there is almost no marginal cost for each ride. A RE agent has to put in significant work for each commission they earn.

> A RE agent has to put in significant work for each commission they earn. I paid a broker $8k to rent an apartment I found online on my own. The landlord paid them another pile of cash, probably comparable to that. I'm not sure that constitutes "putting in significant work"

Ever bought or sold a house?

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#239

Post by mamon »

dpifke wrote: post #200
snarf21 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing that can happen is that they have to merge. They can share all the expensive infrastructure and no longer spend millions every month trying to gain/keep market share.

They'd likely lose the "independent contractor" argument if drivers weren't able to work for both companies simultaneously. It's hard to say someone is an "employee" if they're logged into competitors' apps and taking rides from either, during the same shift.

I agree with your reasoning, but I think that's not really necessary to ride both Lyft and Uber to justify "independent contractor" status. The fact that Lyft riders use their own cars and choose their own working hours (i.e no direct supervision from Lyft side) should be enough to justify that.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#240

Post by warp_factor »

ackbar03 wrote: post #29
warp_factor wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding of that Soros trade is that it was not an actual short (the product was not public), but it was a synthetic product that was correlated on the Lyft ticker, that probably behaved like a Short but wasn't a short.

It's still a short. The banks who sold the trade to soros still need to hedge their exposure by shorting the stock. The short position still gets reflected, if anything it probably amplifies the effect since it's created from a derivative

Why would the bank need to hedge their exposure? Isn't part of their job to create those type of synthetic products based on risk profiles and trade them accordingly?

They might have edged their position by issuing an actual short, I'm only saying they don't necessarily have to.

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