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Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

economist.com

171–180 of 257 posts

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please tell me how do you find out what the borrow rates are for short shares and how many are being shorted?

Bloomberg terminal will give you a lagging number for SI(Short interest). If you want a current indicator you have to pay for it from companies like Markit that poll hedge funds. The idea being that if you want to know the number you pay by including your own data that they can then show to other funds in aggregate. For the borrow rate you ask your prime brokerage(like a bank but for holding equities/derivatives/etc)…

finviz mentions, the short float to be 7% and Short ratio is 1.05 which says it's much conservative than the numbers posted. How to explain the difference?

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#172

When Lyft was doing their road show there were a few analysts who had price targets of $45 as Lyfts fair value at IPO with an acknowledgement that the amount of shares available would double, and possibly triple when all shares were off restriction, meaning that the $45 price target was a best case and we would probably see far lower once people can sell. This is a company that has maybe 33 million shares outstanding…

Could you please tell me how do you find out what the borrow rates are for short shares and how many are being shorted?

Interactive Brokers has SLB information. You would need a valid account though.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#173
post #3

"...and prospects darken" It doesn't actually sound like that from the body of the article. I have no idea if this is true or not, but the story says most of the $1.14B loss was due to booking employee stock based compensation of $894M. I'm assuming that's come out of the IPO and is not a recurring cost. With revenues of $776M, which perhaps are mostly recurring, doesn't that seem to bode well for the future? Of cour…

>With revenues of $776M, which perhaps are mostly recurring, doesn't that seem to bode well for the future? Isn't the majority of that going to drivers which gives them a lot less room to maneuver financially?

Well, sure, maybe.

It would just be nice if the article backed up the headline rather than leaving us to speculate.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bloomberg terminal will give you a lagging number for SI(Short interest). If you want a current indicator you have to pay for it from companies like Markit that poll hedge funds. The idea being that if you want to know the number you pay by including your own data that they can then show to other funds in aggregate. For the borrow rate you ask your prime brokerage(like a bank but for holding equities/derivatives/etc)…

finviz mentions, the short float to be 7% and Short ratio is 1.05 which says it's much conservative than the numbers posted. How to explain the difference?

Lyft's float can be viewed one of two ways

1) Total Shares of 273Million this is what finviz is using. This includes locked up shares that can't trade right now

2) the Currently tradable float, this is 32 Million and what I, Bloomberg, Markit, and any non budget site will use as these are the only shares that currently matter.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#175

When Lyft was doing their road show there were a few analysts who had price targets of $45 as Lyfts fair value at IPO with an acknowledgement that the amount of shares available would double, and possibly triple when all shares were off restriction, meaning that the $45 price target was a best case and we would probably see far lower once people can sell. This is a company that has maybe 33 million shares outstanding…

While they have 27 million shares short, you may want to look at Levine's take today on that - not all the shares are actually available due to hedging exposure. The 27MM is on top of the 33MM, not out of them. Levine: "Here’s a pretty good statistic about Lyft Inc.: Short interest in the No. 2 ride-hailing company has risen to 27 million shares, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners, while Lyft’s public…

> The 27MM is on top of the 33MM, not out of them.

This is wrong. Not sure where you came up with this. I think you are confused because Matt talks about the shorts creating more shares..

There aren't really 60M shares, read the last paragraph you quoted to figure out why.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

exercise their green shoe option. ?

Here's a good take (sorry for all the Levine links, I just think he provides crisp explanations of financial instruments) on what the underwriter does: The way the greenshoe works is that, in the IPO, the underwriters sold 15 percent more stock than Lyft did. That is, Lyft sold the underwriters 32.5 million shares of stock in the IPO, but the underwriters placed 37.4 million shares with investors. (The underwriters s…

No one should apologize from posting Levine links – that man is a legend and his prose is unquestionably satisfying to read

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#177
post #147
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, Uber keeps 22 cents on each dollar paid by passengers, as its fee for creating the app, keeping it working, etc. That's cheap relative to the iTunes store, which keeps 30%. It's preposterous compared to the 3% that real-estate agents get for buying or selling a home. We really don't know what the "fair" rate is for running a ride-hailing business. We know what's been collected to date in a venture-funded d…

While I think real estate agents get too much when it come to higher dollar properties, it doesn't compare well to Ubers service. A lot of Ubers cost is fixed, there is almost no marginal cost for each ride. A RE agent has to put in significant work for each commission they earn.

> A RE agent has to put in significant work for each commission they earn.

I paid a broker $8k to rent an apartment I found online on my own. The landlord paid them another pile of cash, probably comparable to that. I'm not sure that constitutes "putting in significant work"

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#178
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, Uber keeps 22 cents on each dollar paid by passengers, as its fee for creating the app, keeping it working, etc. That's cheap relative to the iTunes store, which keeps 30%. It's preposterous compared to the 3% that real-estate agents get for buying or selling a home. We really don't know what the "fair" rate is for running a ride-hailing business. We know what's been collected to date in a venture-funded d…

Where is the comparison to real estate agents coming from?

I'm sampling the world of commission-based connectors in a deliberately wide-ranging way. We could also include Hollywood agents (often 10%; sometimes 15% or even 20%). Or Eventbrite, where the base formula of 3.5% +$1.79 translates into an overall 14%. (I'm using an average ticket price of $17, which was correct in 2014.)

No comparison to other businesses is exact, but the basic point is that if we make the rounds of commissions charged throughout the economy, not many fields have settled out at the above-20% level that Uber is currently defending.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#179
post #67

> Most of that was down to booking stock-based compensation plans for employees, who earned $894m from Lyft’s initial public offering Could someone help me understand what this means? Is this compensation above and beyond employee stock options? If not, that means employees own ~5% of Lyft, which is much less than I would expect. As an employee of a pre-IPO startup, I'd love to get a better handle on the realistic va…

0. It’s a lottery ticket. To be realistic. Esp with the DOW down 300 today.

The DOW is 30 companies and none of them are unicorn startups, it's related only because it correlates to other indices.

Re: Lyft’s revenues double, losses quintuple and prospects darken

#180
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would only be true if their unit profits were low or negative. On each ride they make a lot of money. They lose money because of their huge, ride-count-independent fixed costs, like legal defense and marketing. So it's not necessarily true that giving the riders a larger cut would widen the loss, if it came with a scale-back on all the marketing.

This is what gets lost in all the negativity. Lyft/Uber can slash their R&D by 90% and they wouldn't have much trouble running normal operations as minimal app-based cab companies. At 2,000 minimally required head count for running operations, they would probably average $2B in annual expenses. However suddenly they would be gloriously profitable with huge scalable upside and small fixed costs. Here are some calculat…

This is a bad estimate for the cost per mile.

Average depreciation cost per mile driven is ~ $0.6 [0]. Commercial insurance is ~ $0.2 Cost of gas per mile (in CA at 20 mpg, since most cars are non-hybrid) ~ $0.2

So cost of driving per mile is ~$1 to the driver

So really driver makes ~$15/hour when it is busy, less most of the time

[0] - https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/driving-cost-per-mile/

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