China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#11

Post by Leary » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:17 PM UTC

The most recent tweets by Trump regarding this:

"The reason for the China pullback & attempted renegotiation of the Trade Deal is the sincere HOPE that they will be able to “negotiate” with Joe Biden or one of the very weak Democrats, and thereby continue to ripoff the United States (($500 Billion a year)) for years to come... Guess what, that’s not going to happen! China has just informed us that they (Vice-Premier) are now coming to the U.S. to make a deal. We’ll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!"

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#12

Post by 5trokerac3 » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:18 PM UTC

scarface74 wrote: post #5

verroq wrote: post #3

I don't understand the hate Trump gets for doing what needs to be done. All these issues esp. theft of intellectual property, IP transfer, currency manipulation are much more important in the long term than some tarrifs. One shitpost tweet crashed SZSC by 7%, most of China couldn't even read it. Trump is in a position of power at least with this negotiation. China deserves the pain train for backpedalling.

The trade war isn't helping anyone. It's costing US consumers, companies, farmers and the stock market. Just a quick search, I couldn't find any mainstream, usually Republican leaning economists, magazines, or newspapers that said it was a good idea.

> I couldn't find any mainstream, usually Republican leaning economists, magazines, or newspapers that said it was a good idea.

That's because tariffs aren't a traditionally right wing, "free market" position. This is actually an economic view that Trump shares with Bernie Sanders.

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#13

Post by awinder » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:20 PM UTC

verroq wrote: post #3

I don't understand the hate Trump gets for doing what needs to be done. All these issues esp. theft of intellectual property, IP transfer, currency manipulation are much more important in the long term than some tarrifs. One shitpost tweet crashed SZSC by 7%, most of China couldn't even read it. Trump is in a position of power at least with this negotiation. China deserves the pain train for backpedalling.

theres a lot of reasons for someone to look at both what and how trump is approaching this, and rationally come away less-than-enthused:

1. Poor execution & personnel at odds with each other leaking play-by-play details has led to a lot of market fluctuation and difficulty for the market to price in the "real world". Anyone exposed to this gets a first hand look at the monetary cost of this. 2. Real impacts of the tariffs felt by american manufacturing & farmers as well as american consumers. If trump wanted an extended trade war he should have been much more upfront with people & prepared to cushion it. You say it's "some tariffs" but this minimizes real household struggles. 3. General impacts of "losing the people". He's a highly polarizing leader; anywhere from beat street to wall street to pennsylvania ave, people who don't get along with others will find it very difficult to be trusted on any given issue even when they're right. This is a near-constant in life, some people manage to be a net-benefit with that attitude but it's usually by leaning on other crutches like being highly gifted. Trump isn't that person.

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#14

Post by baybal2 » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:20 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #2

So basically China's stance is, we cannot change our laws so our bad trading practices must remain in place? While we only get news of trade imbalances between US and China to include all their tariffs and restrictions can someone for the EU or elsewhere chime in with how their nations fare?

> So basically China's stance is, we cannot change our laws so our bad trading practices must remain in place?

China's, or better said Liu He's, stance is "we will not do anything if it has chance to blew into Xi Jinping's face"

Xi brandished how he tames "capitalist tigers" by wholly appropriating the credit for the trade deal. Now he is being made to look stupid with a single twiter post.

It is likely he will not touch the talks personally out of fear for more embarrassment

Liu He might be only a fourth vice premier in line, but only one Xi has personal ties to.

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#15

Post by toasterlovin » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:21 PM UTC

scarface74 wrote: post #5

verroq wrote: post #3

I don't understand the hate Trump gets for doing what needs to be done. All these issues esp. theft of intellectual property, IP transfer, currency manipulation are much more important in the long term than some tarrifs. One shitpost tweet crashed SZSC by 7%, most of China couldn't even read it. Trump is in a position of power at least with this negotiation. China deserves the pain train for backpedalling.

The trade war isn't helping anyone. It's costing US consumers, companies, farmers and the stock market. Just a quick search, I couldn't find any mainstream, usually Republican leaning economists, magazines, or newspapers that said it was a good idea.

It isn’t costing consumers much. I run a company that was affected by the tariffs. If we had kept manufacturing in China, cost of goods sold (COGS) would have gone up by 25%. But COGS are only 50% of the price customers pay for our products. So the price increase to our customers would have only been 12.5%. But we didn’t keep our manufacturing in China, we moved it to Taiwan and Vietnam. As a result, our COGS went up by roughly 8% (prices are higher at our new factories), which works out to a 4% increase in prices to our customers. And our products have an unusually high COGS relative to most things consumers would buy at, say, Walmart. So the real impact of the tariffs to the prices most consumers are paying is in the very low single digits, percentage wise. Not really a big deal. Mostly the tariffs are/were very inconvenient for US business that manufactured in China.

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#16

Post by educationdata » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:21 PM UTC

China is playing the old game, negotiation and negotiation and negotiation, never intend to make any change. They can even make promise to make changes after long long long negotiations and never do anything. And then when someone finally decide to do something about it, they will ask for a new round of negotiation and negotiation and negotiation.

Xi will stay in power may be in next 20 years, and he knows US will have general election in every 4 years. Trump gets the idea: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/11261065400150712...

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#17

Post by rrggrr » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:22 PM UTC

I suspect Xi wants this dispute to continue for internal Chinese reasons. The tariffs impact different sectors and regions in China differently. It may be continued tariffs are reducing overcapacity in a manner that allows Xi to save face internally. It could be the tarrifs are breaking the back of powerful exporting provinces (eg. Jiagnsu) and helping Xi consolidate power. It may also be the case that things need to get much worse in China economically before Xi has a strong enough argument to persuade the Chinese military (a powerful economic force itself) to embrace a deal. Finally, the success of the Belt&Road strategy requires a shift from US/Western export to vast investment elsewhere; and it may be the case these tariffs provide the Chinese private sector a strong incentive to open new markets and long-haul decrease reliance on the US. Its complicated. I suspect a deal will be reached in 2-4 months.

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#18

Post by [deleted] » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:23 PM UTC

verroq wrote: post #3

I don't understand the hate Trump gets for doing what needs to be done. All these issues esp. theft of intellectual property, IP transfer, currency manipulation are much more important in the long term than some tarrifs. One shitpost tweet crashed SZSC by 7%, most of China couldn't even read it. Trump is in a position of power at least with this negotiation. China deserves the pain train for backpedalling.

[deleted]

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#19

Post by rrggrr » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:23 PM UTC

educationdata wrote: post #16

China is playing the old game, negotiation and negotiation and negotiation, never intend to make any change. They can even make promise to make changes after long long long negotiations and never do anything. And then when someone finally decide to do something about it, they will ask for a new round of negotiation and negotiation and negotiation. Xi will stay in power may be in next 20 years, and he knows US will ha…

Incorrect. The tariffs are costing Chinese businesses and the government greatly. There is some other benefit to this that isn't explained by negotiation tactics. Although I cannot rule out a total misread of Trump by China, due to poor analysis, intelligence or misinformation.

Re: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

#20

Post by ok_coo » Wed, May 08, 2019, 2:25 PM UTC

whytaka wrote: post #4

verroq wrote: post #3

I don't understand the hate Trump gets for doing what needs to be done. All these issues esp. theft of intellectual property, IP transfer, currency manipulation are much more important in the long term than some tarrifs. One shitpost tweet crashed SZSC by 7%, most of China couldn't even read it. Trump is in a position of power at least with this negotiation. China deserves the pain train for backpedalling.

This is the one thing where I find myself supporting the policies of the Trump administration.

Yep, one of the hardest and most important things in life is the ability to agree/compromise with people you have fundamental issues with.

This is one of those cases and his tweet is correct, they can just wait this out until the next election after someone new gets in and we do a 180.