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America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

nytimes.com

41–50 of 314 posts

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#41
post #34

> A plunge in NIC checks foreshadows a corresponding plunge in gun sales I'm curious about this statement. NIC checks are, as the name implies, instant. They happen upon transfer of ownership of a firearm from an FFL dealer. So I'm not sure how they 'foreshadow' sales, more likely they mirror sales. In fact, when you purchase a gun online, the sale occurs before the check...

Also, with the number of CCH licenses, those don’t needs a NICS check.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#42

This is not an uncommon story for firearm manufacturers unfortunately. Tooling costs are high, sales hard to predict, and designs can fail easily. Ian McCollum of Forgotten Weapons has done a lot of videos on this topic.

Normally caused by producing bad products, some wacky massive change to the business model or losing a government contract.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#43

This is not an uncommon story for firearm manufacturers unfortunately. Tooling costs are high, sales hard to predict, and designs can fail easily. Ian McCollum of Forgotten Weapons has done a lot of videos on this topic.

There's also the issue - perhaps - of market saturation. How many guns does one need? My pro-gun friends typically seem to have 2-3 but shy away from any more than that.

Let's see, 3 for 3-gun matches, 1 more for PCC matches, 1 more for precision matches, a few extra if I don't compete in the same class for all of those, 1 the kids can shoot, 1 for my wife to carry, 1 for me to carry, bigger ones for the house and cabin, a few extras for the zombie apocalypse.

No, there's plenty of demand for guns. Remington's just lost their former reputation.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#44
post #34

> A plunge in NIC checks foreshadows a corresponding plunge in gun sales I'm curious about this statement. NIC checks are, as the name implies, instant. They happen upon transfer of ownership of a firearm from an FFL dealer. So I'm not sure how they 'foreshadow' sales, more likely they mirror sales. In fact, when you purchase a gun online, the sale occurs before the check...

I don't know for a fact, but I'm guessing it's because theres a lag in the supply chain. NIC checks may instantly reflect a drop in sales at individual stores, but it will be a bit before that drop works its way back up through the suppliers and distributors to Remington itself.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#46
post #34

> A plunge in NIC checks foreshadows a corresponding plunge in gun sales I'm curious about this statement. NIC checks are, as the name implies, instant. They happen upon transfer of ownership of a firearm from an FFL dealer. So I'm not sure how they 'foreshadow' sales, more likely they mirror sales. In fact, when you purchase a gun online, the sale occurs before the check...

NIC happens at retail. I suppose it would take time for retail sales volume changes to ripple back through the supply chain, so maybe manufacturers view it as a leading indicator.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#47
post #36

> Because private-equity firms appear frequently as villains in the press, many people assume that they cater mostly to the superrich, earning high returns on investments for billionaire clients. They do. But by far the most important piece of their business — 48 percent, according to the data-analytics firm Preqin — is investing capital for American pension funds. This doesn't get mentioned often enough when talking…

I think your point ignores that there's a mandatory federal pension system w/ a minimum benefit that people who don't save in private pension plans or who may only have temp jobs do contribute to, and will draw from in old age. It's true that it's not fully funded, sure, but if it didn't exist it would be the obvious policy solution to the problem you're describing.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also the issue - perhaps - of market saturation. How many guns does one need? My pro-gun friends typically seem to have 2-3 but shy away from any more than that.

Compare to social media games like Farmville - most people might spend money they personally consider excessive, but that balances out with some other forms of entertainment. Meanwhile I've heard they had people spending upwards of $10k PER MONTH. Enough so that it wasn't "that one weirdo". So while the "average" owner might have 1-3 guns (in this case), and the average "fanatic" might have 5-10, you have enough obse…

Carefully does not look at Steam/GOG libraries with hundreds of games

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#49
post #45

Remington just doesn’t have that many interesting guns. There are a ton of firearms manufacturers in the last 20 years. I’m guessing the AR-15 market alone is billions in revenue.

And their quality has plummeted the past few years. I had an AK that could out-shoot my Rem 700 no matter what I did to it, and my 870 would only reliably eject Remington brand shells. Sold both, will never buy Remington again. Really a shame. Both of those were excellent guns back in the day.

Re: America’s Oldest Gun Maker Went Bankrupt: A Financial Engineering Mystery

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. This isn't a unique tale for a firearms manufacturer. This is a common tale for nearly any type of manufacturer that is bought out by private equity firms. They reduce costs and quality, load it with debt, suck it dry, and then dump it on their creditors.

I’ve read about this scenario many times, but I’m curious about why any creditor would lend money to a company that’s poised to do this. Wouldn’t these private equity firms lose the ability to borrow money based on past practices like this?

Buyers searching for yield. Take a look at the current state of covenant light loan and leveraged loan markets. They assumption should be based on the winners paying for the losers, just like in VC, but it isn’t clear that the yields are high enough now to make up for it.

Consider the alternative for where people can park their money - sovereign debt paying effectively zero paid for in an inflationary currency.

There is logic here. It isn’t great, but it’s there.

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