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Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

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Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#81

Post by close04 »

Reedx wrote: post #57
Judgmentality wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That study has been highly disputed by people in the field; the methodology is questionable at best for the claims they're making.

Perhaps, but you can't dispute that humans don't have LIDAR. It's just a matter of time before AI can drive better than humans even if using similar vision. Especially in aggregate (e.g., factoring in distracted drivers).

Sure, but they have a vastly superior processing unit to make sense of those images. The question isn't necessarily if binocular vision is better than LIDAR or not but rather which one works best with the current crop of artificial brains and algorithms.

I am not considering here situations where either system is impaired since that will lead to varied degrees of failure with both.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#82

Post by [deleted] »

Reedx wrote: post #57
Judgmentality wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That study has been highly disputed by people in the field; the methodology is questionable at best for the claims they're making.

Perhaps, but you can't dispute that humans don't have LIDAR. It's just a matter of time before AI can drive better than humans even if using similar vision. Especially in aggregate (e.g., factoring in distracted drivers).

[deleted]

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#83

Post by WhatIsDukkha »

gamblor956 wrote: post #74
WhatIsDukkha wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm REALLY unclear how you decided to post this giraffe comment... The picture and the words in the article show cameras next to the rear view mirror. """ Using two inexpensive cameras on either side of a vehicle’s windshield, Cornell researchers have discovered they can detect objects with nearly LiDAR’s accuracy and at a fraction of the cost."""

That's not what the article originally said, so it appears that it's been updated since then. Good think I quoted the relevant section of the article in my comment... That being said, existing self-driving cars already have some cameras at that level without displaying the sort of accuracy the researchers found, which relates to the methodology issues other commenters have noted.

That quote I posted was the sentences just before the ones you selected.

Why don't you read the paper a bit -

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.07179.pdf

And then work out why they used the words "birds eye" that you found so upsetting.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#84

Post by DennisP »

close04 wrote: post #81
Reedx wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps, but you can't dispute that humans don't have LIDAR. It's just a matter of time before AI can drive better than humans even if using similar vision. Especially in aggregate (e.g., factoring in distracted drivers).

Sure, but they have a vastly superior processing unit to make sense of those images. The question isn't necessarily if binocular vision is better than LIDAR or not but rather which one works best with the current crop of artificial brains and algorithms. I am not considering here situations where either system is impaired since that will lead to varied degrees of failure with both.

True, but lots of animals with much smaller visual cortexes also manage to avoid running into things.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#85

Post by Robotbeat »

dragontamer wrote: post #77
Robotbeat wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly, it'd be insane to invest in 10 or 7 or 5nm at this point for a custom design of maybe a few million units. The investment required scales insanely with reduction in feature size (Billions of dollars, potentially), and you'll never get your investment back. That effectively locks you in to an old design for several years. And the difference in unit costs or efficiency between 14 and 10nm is not big enough to…

Intel / MobilEye is making a 7nm chip for all of its customers. And part of that is because MobilEye has Ford, GM, BMW, Audi... MobilEye is deployed in 313 car models across 27 manufacturers. They're going to have a 7nm chip next year, and are easily going to leapfrog Tesla's 14nm capabilities.

If it's deploying so broadly over so many different models and manufacturers (with different sensor configurations, different IP, etc), then it necessarily has to be less application-specific and more general purpose. Tesla introduced its NN chip already in 2019 in actual built Model 3s already.

MobileEye plans to maybe have a 7nm chip sometime in 2020 (probably the end of the year) which might make it into year 2021 cars. So again, we're talking about ~2 years difference in deployment time for a less-tailored chip with a far more expensive development process. Maybe MobilEye can justify that (I'm not saying MobilEye is wrong to pursue 7nm), but it seems pretty clear Tesla pursued a logical plan to go with a 14nm process that is much cheaper to design for and is already available now at high quantities from multiple providers and reliable yields with zero technical risk on the chip fab side.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#86

Post by Robotbeat »

dragontamer wrote: post #78
Robotbeat wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Launching in 2020 means two years (starting in 2018) of using the more expensive and slower Nvidia chip. By using the 14nm process now, Tesla paid far less on upfront dev costs (we're talking tens of millions versus billions) and saved on unit costs right out the gate, putting them in better position for smaller process sizes in the future. Volta architecture is much more general purpose than Tesla's. If you're doing…

> Launching in 2020 means two years (starting in 2018) of using the more expensive and slower Nvidia chip. You mean a cheaper and more industry established MobilEye EyeQ5 chip, with LiDAR capabilities, Tensor Units and all that good stuff. ------------ Let me ask you this: how many vehicles do you think Tesla will make in 2018 and 2019? A million? Two million? Do remember, 2018 Tesla made only 244,920 cars. 2019 Q1 o…

14nm is a sound move for Tesla exactly because their volumes are lower. All their cars will have the new chip installed as it's part of the safety features as well (and gives them margin whenever someone decides to do an upgrade on their existing vehicle).

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#87

Post by dragontamer »

Robotbeat wrote: post #85
dragontamer wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel / MobilEye is making a 7nm chip for all of its customers. And part of that is because MobilEye has Ford, GM, BMW, Audi... MobilEye is deployed in 313 car models across 27 manufacturers. They're going to have a 7nm chip next year, and are easily going to leapfrog Tesla's 14nm capabilities.

If it's deploying so broadly over so many different models and manufacturers (with different sensor configurations, different IP, etc), then it necessarily has to be less application-specific and more general purpose. Tesla introduced its NN chip already in 2019 in actual built Model 3s already. MobileEye plans to maybe have a 7nm chip sometime in 2020 (probably the end of the year) which might make it into year 2021…

ASICs are all well and good when you can afford them AND when you have the volume to sustain them.

The main issue is that Tesla can't afford them. They have $2.2 Billion in cash remaining and are currently losing money at a rate of $700 Million/quarter.

Tesla's cash reserves are nose-diving and they're busy doing vanity projects like a self-driving ASIC, when their volume of cars being produced is well under 300k / year.

The volume simply isn't there yet to sustain this ASIC. 300k/year total car production, and not all of those cars would even have a self-driving capabilities installed. Tesla needs to work on expanding its Model 3 capabilities before ASICs make sense.

70,000 total vehicles produced Q1 2019. That's 280,000 vehicles this year if extrapolated over 4 quarters.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#88

Post by Nasrudith »

DennisP wrote: post #40
brianpgordon wrote: post #2

> a fleet of self-driving vehicles that will make their way into the robotaxi service as soon as next year. So... are we living on the same planet? Does Musk seriously think that Tesla will have solved full autonomous driving, with no LIDAR, and have commercialized a functioning robotaxi service, by next year ? This is so far outside of the realm of possibility that it's like saying he's going to Pluto next week.

I've always been skeptical of skipping LIDAR, but a recent study at Cornell found that with binocular vision they could be almost as accurate as LIDAR, but with much cheaper hardware. https://www.therobotreport.com/researchers-back-teslas-non-l...

The best reason I can see to skip LIDAR isn't its expense but the reliability given opaque to LIDAR but transparent to vision obstructions like mist.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#89

Post by close04 »

DennisP wrote: post #84
close04 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but they have a vastly superior processing unit to make sense of those images. The question isn't necessarily if binocular vision is better than LIDAR or not but rather which one works best with the current crop of artificial brains and algorithms. I am not considering here situations where either system is impaired since that will lead to varied degrees of failure with both.

True, but lots of animals with much smaller visual cortexes also manage to avoid running into things.

And sure enough their brains are more advanced and capable than our current computers, especially the ones that easily fit in a car. Even human vision (for the purpose of driving) is more advanced than cameras you might see in a car.

And you're oversimplifying a little, it goes far beyond just avoiding obstacles. You need to be able to anticipate, learn and adapt to completely new situations, understand consequences and things that aren't strictly related to what happens on the road. That's something even most mammals fail to do. Our computers are not there and they won't be for some time.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#90

Post by Robotbeat »

dragontamer wrote: post #87
Robotbeat wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's deploying so broadly over so many different models and manufacturers (with different sensor configurations, different IP, etc), then it necessarily has to be less application-specific and more general purpose. Tesla introduced its NN chip already in 2019 in actual built Model 3s already. MobileEye plans to maybe have a 7nm chip sometime in 2020 (probably the end of the year) which might make it into year 2021…

ASICs are all well and good when you can afford them AND when you have the volume to sustain them. The main issue is that Tesla can't afford them. They have $2.2 Billion in cash remaining and are currently losing money at a rate of $700 Million/quarter. Tesla's cash reserves are nose-diving and they're busy doing vanity projects like a self-driving ASIC, when their volume of cars being produced is well under 300k / y…

All the more reason for them to go with the proven and far cheaper 14nm process node rather than 7nm (which Intel/MobilEye have had difficulties with as far as yields). https://www.techpowerup.com/248008/intel-at-least-5-years-be...

EDIT: Corrected below. MobilEye is using TSMC even though they're owned by Intel.

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