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Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

anandtech.com

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Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#11

Post by tooltalk »

mikhailt wrote: post #10
tooltalk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because there is no proof of collusion. Absolutely no need for any further regulation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. I can only guess that laws are more lenient in Asia and they can only be charged in US after the fact. Edit: removed my opinion about getting sued again as that's off the topic.

> They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing.

Now you are making stuff up. We are in 2018, not 2006. There is no regulatory investigation by any gov't antitrust agency. China's NDRC announced that they had "massive evidence" of price fixing by Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, in 2018. It turned out they had nothing, so instead they tried to blackmail Samsung and SK Hynix to drop all pending and future patent lawsuits against China's domestic companies in exchange for dropping a multibillion dollar fine and antitrust violation that they couldn't prove.

You clearly haven't read the class-action lawsuit by Hagens Berman in which the law firm alleges that the memory companies "coordinated" by signaling each other via PR. Do you understand why the class lawsuit is not going anywhere?

Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#12

Post by mikhailt »

tooltalk wrote: post #11
mikhailt wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. I can only guess that laws are more lenient in Asia and they can only be charged in US after the fact. Edit: removed my opinion about getting sued again as that's off the topic.

> They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. Now you are making stuff up. We are in 2018, not 2006. There is no regulatory investigation by any gov't antitrust agency. China's NDRC announced that they had "massive evidence" of price fixing by Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, in 2018. It turned out they had nothing, so instead they t…

Please provide sources to the NDRC case, that's why I asked in the first place about why this isn't collusion. My understanding is limited to the original 2006 case where these companies were in fact charged and fined by Department of Justice, that's not a made up story and I provided the source to that.

Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up.

Technically, we're in 2019 but that's off the topic.

Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#13

Post by wtallis »

reacharavindh wrote: post #8
dazilcher wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn't that illegal? Yeah, how dare these companies adjust their production to respond to supply/demand imbalances? /s I cringe at the vision of a world where that would be illegal.

I think you misunderstood my concern. I'm not talking about Intel adjusting its production to meet its demand. I'm talking about a collection of competetitors getting together and saying that we should limit supply so that the prices stay where they can make a good profit. How could that be healthy competition? If all cement manufacturers suddenly got together and said they'll keep their prices at 40% more than other…

The "getting together" is entirely your own supposition. The NAND manufacturers have not made any joint announcements or otherwise admitted to any joint action. They have responded similarly to market conditions that affect all of them equally, which is to be expected whether or not they are coordinating. These announcements were completely predictable; we knew last summer that something like this would have to happen this year unless several companies experienced serious yield issues with their 96-layer 3D NAND.

Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#15

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Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#16

Post by tooltalk »

mikhailt wrote: post #12
tooltalk wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. Now you are making stuff up. We are in 2018, not 2006. There is no regulatory investigation by any gov't antitrust agency. China's NDRC announced that they had "massive evidence" of price fixing by Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, in 2018. It turned out they had nothing, so instead they t…

Please provide sources to the NDRC case, that's why I asked in the first place about why this isn't collusion. My understanding is limited to the original 2006 case where these companies were in fact charged and fined by Department of Justice, that's not a made up story and I provided the source to that. Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up. Technically, we're in 2019 b…

Google "china ndrc dram price fixing -digitimes"

If you are citing Wiki, you probably know very little about the older 2006 case. You seem to make haste assumption on what, how, and who are involed this time around without any facts or understanding claims made by different parties.

> Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up.

You are the one making accusation against the DRAM makers of price-fixing, it's your obligation to prove your allegations. The burden of proof is not on me to prove the negative (which is a logical fallacy).

Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#18

Post by mises »

tooltalk wrote: post #5
reacharavindh wrote: post #4

> three major manufacturers of NAND memory — Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix — have announced that they will be taking measures to address the oversupply Isn't that illegal? To fix the market by colluding and price fixing? How is this different from the act that Mercedes, BMW and VW are getting fined for for colluding to not release emissions tech?

it's illegal if and only if it can be proven that they coordinated their production cut. They all respond to the same changing market conditions -- they can't just continue increasing their production when the price continues its downward spiral. Further, the largest producer Samsung hasn't joined the foray yet according to the article. Samsung is a big variable in this -- the company's expansion created the memory g…

It is possible that Samsung will not do so. It's the same problem that would have affected them had they actually colluded: each player has incentive to wait until others have cut production/raised price and maintain their own. Handy way to snap up market share. Every one loves to scream "price fixing!", but it's not easy to do and almost always collapses.

Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#19

Post by hugh4life »

reacharavindh wrote: post #4

> three major manufacturers of NAND memory — Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix — have announced that they will be taking measures to address the oversupply Isn't that illegal? To fix the market by colluding and price fixing? How is this different from the act that Mercedes, BMW and VW are getting fined for for colluding to not release emissions tech?

If you read it, it's mostly about phasing out costly older technology and slowing down the creation of a new fab.

The chinese are slowly entering the NAND business so there's not going to be few enough players to really make collusion possible.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=3...

Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

#20

Post by shaki-dora »

wtallis wrote: post #13
reacharavindh wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you misunderstood my concern. I'm not talking about Intel adjusting its production to meet its demand. I'm talking about a collection of competetitors getting together and saying that we should limit supply so that the prices stay where they can make a good profit. How could that be healthy competition? If all cement manufacturers suddenly got together and said they'll keep their prices at 40% more than other…

The "getting together" is entirely your own supposition. The NAND manufacturers have not made any joint announcements or otherwise admitted to any joint action. They have responded similarly to market conditions that affect all of them equally, which is to be expected whether or not they are coordinating. These announcements were completely predictable; we knew last summer that something like this would have to happe…

But they won’t be leaving the market, right? Therefore, they expect to make some profit at the expected higher price, and would stand to gain the most if all others cut production, except for them.

This is a classic prisoners’ dilemma, where everyone should defect. If they don’t, it must be due to coordination, either ex- or implicitly. And because anti-trust is civil law, it criminal, the standard of poof is “preponderance of evidence”, i. e. >50%.

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