I think the article hints at this but I wonder if civil political discourse is over for people even despite the fact that people of differing beliefs don't live next to each other and intermingle. It seems that enough people spend a lot of time online and can hang out virtually in their circles anyway and get caught up in groupthink.
Brain Drain Across the United States
71–80 of 213 posts
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#72Now, consider the "meta-brain-drain" of 1) increased assortative mating (people are increasingly more likely to marry someone of similar educational and professional achievement) and 2) college-educated women delaying childbirth and having fewer children than non-college-educated women. The net result is that more educated people tend to have fewer children than the less educated. If we assume educational attainment…
We're probably less than a century away from having the capability to edit intelligence into the genome of embryos. Certainly not more than two, assuming we don't blow ourselves up. At that point in time, a child will not be shackled to the luck of their parents' genetic fortunes -- at least not because of our technical inability to break those chains. I doubt any hypothetical dysgenic effects will have become so acute by then that we'll be unable to make that advancement, although I too feel some kind of visceral concern over this issue.
Also worth noting: according to [1], women who don't finish high school are only about 50% more fertile than women who finish college, and that group represents only 20% of the population. The difference between the high school, some high school, and college cohorts is much smaller.
We also don't know exactly how well that difference in educational attainment is linked to a genetic difference. That is, it seems very likely that some of the difference in attainment is due to family socioeconomic circumstances, not an underlying genetic difference in intellect. As such, I don't think any dysgenic effects are going to be so pronounced as to cause a crisis before genetic engineering efforts can be well under way.
[1]: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/9/education-le...
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#73I'm sure I will be downvoted for even mentioning his name, but Charles Murray has been writing about this for decades.
bummer that just mentioning someone’s name requires this kind of prefacing
It doesn't.
And it would be helpful if the commentary on Murray's thoughts exceeded the meta-commentary on mentioning Murray's name.
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#74Now, consider the "meta-brain-drain" of 1) increased assortative mating (people are increasingly more likely to marry someone of similar educational and professional achievement) and 2) college-educated women delaying childbirth and having fewer children than non-college-educated women. The net result is that more educated people tend to have fewer children than the less educated. If we assume educational attainment…
> It seems like we as a society need to figure out a way to make "have children at a reasonable age" not be a low-status move for highly educated / driven / intelligent women.
Isn't the obvious answer better maternity leave laws? Ambitious women in the US don't have kids because it fucks their career. The US is literally last among OECD countries, offering zero guaranteed maternity pay [1].
[1] https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/19/news/economy/countries-most...
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#75What’s interesting is the world has a brain drain.....and the highly educated adults are going to US. From places like India and China. Don’t believe me? Check this out: Chinese students got beaten down by university securities, for protesting against fake degrees given to them. Happened today https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/bhxgng/chinas_studen...
You’re 100% correct and it is why I’m generally very bullish on America despite the gloom and doom on the right and late stage capitalists on the left. It’s the competitive advantage of being a nation bound by ideas and common purpose than a monarch or ethnicity or religion.
As someone who grew up in Ohio, went to an Ivy, and left the US (but working remotely when I come across interesting projects for companies), I want to offer a different perspective.
>It’s the competitive advantage of being a nation bound by ideas and common purpose than a monarch or ethnicity or religion.
I think the US has become very ossified in this belief (which people fool themselves that the nature of this belief is any different from any other belief), you can see global capital flight to (parts of) the US and brain drain into the US, but in market speak, its a crowded trade, driven out of fear of the current downsides and not future upsides. However the nature of crowded trades is that they have the most tail risk, that some people (like me) cannot stomach.
I'm of the mind that things will get more complicated soon within the next year (well at least for those who have been oblivious all along despite the warning signs), and that people will start to realize that value can be found anywhere if those are willing to seek it out, though it may not be as simple as what we are used to and have come to expect.
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#76Now, consider the "meta-brain-drain" of 1) increased assortative mating (people are increasingly more likely to marry someone of similar educational and professional achievement) and 2) college-educated women delaying childbirth and having fewer children than non-college-educated women. The net result is that more educated people tend to have fewer children than the less educated. If we assume educational attainment…
> It seems like we as a society need to figure out a way to make "have children at a reasonable age" not be a low-status move for highly educated / driven / intelligent women. Isn't the obvious answer better maternity leave laws? Ambitious women in the US don't have kids because it fucks their career. The US is literally last among OECD countries, offering zero guaranteed maternity pay [1]. [1] https://money.cnn.com/…
Paternity laws as well, though Maternity should come first. It needs to be at the federal or state level.
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#77Now, consider the "meta-brain-drain" of 1) increased assortative mating (people are increasingly more likely to marry someone of similar educational and professional achievement) and 2) college-educated women delaying childbirth and having fewer children than non-college-educated women. The net result is that more educated people tend to have fewer children than the less educated. If we assume educational attainment…
> It seems like we as a society need to figure out a way to make "have children at a reasonable age" not be a low-status move for highly educated / driven / intelligent women. Isn't the obvious answer better maternity leave laws? Ambitious women in the US don't have kids because it fucks their career. The US is literally last among OECD countries, offering zero guaranteed maternity pay [1]. [1] https://money.cnn.com/…
That would be a good start, but overall I think access to high quality child care is more important than maternity leave.
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#78Living in one of the high rent areas, it's amazing how many people move here for the work, and then leave once they've achieved their goals. Quality of life and good pay don't seem to be collocated.
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#79Now, consider the "meta-brain-drain" of 1) increased assortative mating (people are increasingly more likely to marry someone of similar educational and professional achievement) and 2) college-educated women delaying childbirth and having fewer children than non-college-educated women. The net result is that more educated people tend to have fewer children than the less educated. If we assume educational attainment…
> It seems like we as a society need to figure out a way to make "have children at a reasonable age" not be a low-status move for highly educated / driven / intelligent women. Isn't the obvious answer better maternity leave laws? Ambitious women in the US don't have kids because it fucks their career. The US is literally last among OECD countries, offering zero guaranteed maternity pay [1]. [1] https://money.cnn.com/…
Most countries with better guaranteed parental leave policies have even worse fertility rates than the US.
Re: Brain Drain Across the United States
#80Whenever I see this topic come up, I think back to the climactic speech in the movie Good Will Hunting, the one where Chuckie excoriates Will for wanting to put down roots in the community he grew up in. He concludes: "It'd be an insult to us if you're still here in 20 years. Hangin' around here is a fuckin' waste of your time." This was framed as an inspirational moment that finally pushed Will to achieve his potent…
Sounds more like it's an idea that's been fed to the culture by Hollywood.