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Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

nytimes.com

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Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#681

Post by sbov »

sliken wrote: post #510
sbov wrote: post #502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to call in to get the actual base model - they removed the option to order it from the website.

Yes, I ignored that one. The $39,500 model with autopilot is right on the website. It's not the promised $35k model, but it does include autopilot.

If something is "zero extra cost" I would expect the base model to have it.

Beyond that, what you looked at used to cost $37,500 with autopilot as an optional $3k addon. Now it always includes autopilot but costs $2k more. Again, not exactly "zero extra cost".

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#682

Post by cagenut »

telchar wrote: post #623
cagenut wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is a line of reasoning, rarely articulated, that EVs will never reach the price points it would take to fully 100% replace ICE cars in the private/personal market. li-ion batteries have done an excellent job walking down the learning/cost curve, but we can all see the way it bends and how much headroom is left in the chemistry. we'll likely hit $100/kwh in the next few years, but even just $80/kwh is likely 5+…

I think that view neglects the costs of the fossil fuel infrastructure. At some point gas stations are going to start closing for lack of customers. That time is a while off yet, but all of the existing stations are not going to be able to be supported by say, half as many ICE cars. Convenience will go down and at some point prices may go up as the existing infrastructure is paid for by fewer stations and less fuel.…

I agree with your points on a longer time horizon, but elon needs to solve for model3 demand now (this year).

EVs will not drive the kind of oil distribution market retraction you're describing until they're at least 10% of cars on the road, which would be years and years after they're 10% of new cars sold.

So while I agree the affect you describe will help, we don't have time to wait for it.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#683

Post by moduspol »

treis wrote: post #679
moduspol wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nokia was better at building phones at a profit than all its competitors until Apple entered the market. Apple changed the market for what consumers expected from phones, which Nokia failed to adapt to, and the rest is history. Traditional automakers are, indeed, much better at profitably making what consumers wanted in 2012. It's not clear how well they'll react as expectations change, driven in large part by what T…

It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive. Which goes back to the initial point about there being a race on and Tesla isn't winning it. Tesla has to increase their manufacturing by an order of magnitude before the other car companies make competitive EVs. We already…

> It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive.

Apple had successful business in related fields before starting to sell phones, and the consumer purchase cycle for phones is much faster than cars. Unless traditional automakers take note and make big structural changes, the same pattern will happen here--only more slowly.

> We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over.

You're missing the point if you think being a good EV is the only significant differentiator Tesla has. It's probably only 1/3 of the things I love about this car that traditional automakers will be unable to compete with easily.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#684

Post by cagenut »

jp555 wrote: post #593
cagenut wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is a line of reasoning, rarely articulated, that EVs will never reach the price points it would take to fully 100% replace ICE cars in the private/personal market. li-ion batteries have done an excellent job walking down the learning/cost curve, but we can all see the way it bends and how much headroom is left in the chemistry. we'll likely hit $100/kwh in the next few years, but even just $80/kwh is likely 5+…

I've read that the wiring harness of a modern ICE car costs more than the transmission. Do you think it's possible that all we need is ~$100/KWh, after which due to diminishing returns, find better ROI improving other areas like a dramatically cheaper wiring harness?

Yes but its not enough and its not soon enough. Tesla needs to stoke demand this quarter. Humanity needs to be driving toward zero emissions yesterday.

IMHO privately owned electric vehicles will only ever have been a historical oddity of the transition between personally owned cars and shared/pooled cars.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#685

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #649
_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several tests comparing Tesla with NIO show that the efficiency is the same, so not sure about "batteries and drive train efficiency are the secret to Tesla's dominance in efficiency."

Niro has efficiency but it's fast charging and acceleration is considerably worse than Tesla's. eTron has fast charging and acceleration but efficiency is considerably worse than Telsa's.

Thanks didn't know, was just replying to the parents "efficiency" argument.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#686

Post by radium3d »

_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #534
radium3d wrote: post #252

Seasonal 4th to 1st quarter may have been a loss but these numbers stand out to me as being a bit more important. Cars sold: Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 Revenue Q1 2019: $4.5 billion Q1 2018: $3.4 billion Q1 2017: $2.7 billion Q1 2016: $1.6 billion Q1 2015: $1.1 billion Q1 2014: $713 million Q1 2013: $562 million Q1 2012: $30…

"Q1 2019: 63,000" I'm curious, sold or Model3 from the waiting list delivered?

Delivered. Sorry.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

https://ir.teslamotors.com/news-releases/news-release-detail...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#687

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

dd36 wrote: post #292
_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has no network effects as a marketplace and doesn't drive competitors out of the market. Both things Amazon traded their profits in for.

It has both those things. It’s literally devouring market share from similar class vehicles of competitors. The network effect is also happening slowly.

From my point of view Tesla hasn't driven BMW, Audi or Mercedes out of business in the last 15 years, but I didn't take a look at their recent numbers, perhaps they already have.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#688

Post by gwright »

jwr wrote: post #151
gwright wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have a point about the negative externalities, but insisting on using the word "subsidy" for that concept is just going to confuse people. That isn't the accepted meaning of "subsidy", in casual conversation at least.

Hmm — how else would you call it? As I understand it, future generations are subsidizing the price of our fossil fuels and internal combustion engines, making ICEs artificially cheap by not considering their environmental impact. Subsidies do not have to be in the form of cash: many come in the form of tax breaks and I would consider this to be one such case.

It is just confusing to use the same word to suggest explicit assistance (cash, tax breaks, etc) and "failure to penalize". I guess mathematically they both represent a reduction in cost when compared to an alternative scenario (no subsidy and some sort of tax/fee for the externality) but they are different mechanisms and so it makes sense for them to have different words to describe them if you want to communicate clearly.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#689

Post by dan678 »

sliken wrote: post #257
golfer wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specifically what remains? They are basically the only OEM pushing self driving without lidar. Their manufacturing facilities are childish compared to other large automakers. Solar City, powerwall, and the solar roof are huge money losers and barely make a dent in the P&L statement. Maybe just the brand name? But will the brand have the cache once it suffers bankruptcy? Maybe it will.

Seen the Cornell paper "Pseudo-LiDAR from Visual Depth Estimation: Bridging the Gap in 3D Object Detection for Autonomous Driving" or the more consumer friendly "Elon Musk Was Right: Cheap Cameras Could Replace Lidar on Self-Driving Cars, Researchers Find"? Looks like a pair of cheap cameras with good stereo separation (distance between the cameras) provides very similar data to Lidar. All without the giant domes on…

Not in scenes with poor lighting, not in rain, not in fog, not in scenes with poor surface variation, and not at the ranges needed for safe on highway driving.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#690

Post by humbleMouse »

_ea1k wrote: post #624
humbleMouse wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to clarify, you dont get heated seats unless you pay 4.5k for a software upgrade?

That was the initial claim. It sounds like they might not actually be turning those off, though.

Seems pretty ridiculous to claim software is needed for heated seats. Usually a hardware setup with a simple switch.
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