Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
spectrum.ieee.org
Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
1–10 of 62 posts
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#230% gap between known maximum and highest average is interesting in and of itself. We have barely attacked aging as opposed to diseases of age.
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#330% gap between known maximum and highest average is interesting in and of itself. We have barely attacked aging as opposed to diseases of age.
"Aging" is not singular thing.
After development, the age of a human body is just an accumulation of many many different kinds of failures over time.
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#4I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed.
At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity.
I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist.
But I suspect we will see bifurcated life expectancy moving forward.
In the distant past when there was great wealth divide, one common denominator was similar life expectancy.
Moving forward, that same wealth divide can now be leveraged by those who can afford it to exploit the entire spectrum of longevity incremental opportunities:
Nutrition Clean water Clean air Mitigating physical wear & tear Sleep Stress Well being Microbiome Supplements Pharmacology Stem cell therapy Gene therapy CRISPR
I predict a continued flattening of average life expectancy as developing world life expectancy slowly improves and some developed countries possibly see some attrition from systemic obesity, economic disruption, and continued wealth divide.
But I see the top few % of most wealthy begin to see enhanced quality of life in their later years, as well as incrementally more years.
Longevity tech is the ultimate market.
How much will people pay for a Tesla Model Y(assuming it makes it to market)?
Something.
How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years?
Everything.
Apologies, social “scientist” talking fiction!
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#530% gap between known maximum and highest average is interesting in and of itself. We have barely attacked aging as opposed to diseases of age.
"Aging" is not singular thing. After development, the age of a human body is just an accumulation of many many different kinds of failures over time.
And we will be able pretty soon to replace failed organs - anything but the brain itself should be replaceable in 30 years at the latest, I bet. With the progress that is being made right now, I'd say prototypes should exist in a decade, and another 20 years to let the economies of scale work.
What has not caught up with reality yet is society: how are people living 100+ years supposed to be financed? Do we expect people to work in their 80s fulltime? Will we be mandating organ replacements for those above a certain age?
How are we supposed to feed all those people? It's barely working out right now with current mortality rates and only not collapsing because the rate at which resources like fish are exploited is way beyond the sustainability threshold?
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Aging" is not singular thing. After development, the age of a human body is just an accumulation of many many different kinds of failures over time.
And we will be able pretty soon to replace failed organs - anything but the brain itself should be replaceable in 30 years at the latest, I bet. With the progress that is being made right now, I'd say prototypes should exist in a decade, and another 20 years to let the economies of scale work. What has not caught up with reality yet is society: how are people living 100+ years supposed to be financed? Do we expect pe…
Also, most 100-year-olds are not self-sufficient.
If it was the norm be to live to 100 years old we would have a lot of "disabled" people, and even architecturally that would be a problem, no..?
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#7I don't doubt that we're approaching the max life expectancy that you can get from natural means... By that, I mean curing diseases and maintaining the right balance of nutrition.
But I think we'll start to see improvements that aren't about just staying healthy, but instead are about actually reversing "the aging process" and the things we barely understand about what makes us change as we get older.
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#8I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…
>How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? Everything.
I doubt it, most people aren't even willing to pay the small price of feeling lactic acid when exercising. Or not consuming excess calories.
Quality of life matters too. If you have children, I would be surprised if most people would want to spend their personal wealth for an extra 5 to 10 geriatric bed ridden years. It only happens now because the taxpayers pay for it. I'd rather pass those resources onto my kids if it had to come out of my pocket.
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#9I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity. I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist. But I suspect we will s…
>How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? Everything. I doubt it, most people aren't even willing to pay the small price of feeling lactic acid when exercising. Or not consuming excess calories. Quality of life matters too. If you have children, I would be surprised if most people would want to spend their personal wealth for an extra 5 to 10 geriatric bed ridden years. It only happens now because the taxpay…
A lot of people in the 90s wish they have another 10 years of being 50 and would happily live 10-20 years less time for that. Nobody is talking about ways to become a Struldbrugg, this is about extending healthy lifetime.
There is a huge difference between "exercise to uncomfortableness every day and you'll probably live longer" and "give us $10M for a genetic modification treatment that extends your 50s for another 5=10 years"
Re: Is Life Expectancy Finally Topping Out?
#10I don't doubt that we're approaching the max life expectancy that you can get from natural means... By that, I mean curing diseases and maintaining the right balance of nutrition. But I think we'll start to see improvements that aren't about just staying healthy, but instead are about actually reversing "the aging process" and the things we barely understand about what makes us change as we get older.
We seem to have got a lot worse at nutrition over the last thirty years.