271–280 of 778 posts
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The bar for success is different too. A rocket which safely delivers its cargo 99.99% of the time would be a huge step forward. A car which safely delivers its cargo 99.99% of the time would be taken off the roads.
It’s funny you mention 99.99% - because 40,000 people are killed by car crashes in a year in the United States, which is actually .012% of the population. So cars actually do a bit worse than your stat...
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Apply bankruptcy and sell the assets for cheap... Id imagine many would want to pick up the remains...
Specifically what remains? They are basically the only OEM pushing self driving without lidar. Their manufacturing facilities are childish compared to other large automakers. Solar City, powerwall, and the solar roof are huge money losers and barely make a dent in the P&L statement. Maybe just the brand name? But will the brand have the cache once it suffers bankruptcy? Maybe it will.
Just want to say that the amount of hate Elon gets on HN is really interesting.
Yes, you would expect that someone from tech revolutionizing an entire industry at global scale would get a little bit more respect and appreciation here.
I'm not one of the people negatively commenting but I personally think one's character is significantly more important than ones accomplishments and he doesn't really seem like a good person.
I admire that he is trying to do something about global warming. Nevertheless he seems like he's let his fame (or lack of sleep..) get to his head and I strongly disagree with the marketing of autopilot.
I understand why people would admire him though. He's done some amazing things and consistently.
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Manufacturing is well-understood, self-driving is research. Dumb cars = flip phones shortly.
I doubt that will happen. The paradigm shift for a “smart” car vs just a car is nothing like a flip phone vs a smart phone. Besides being able to drive you home when you’re drunk, what can you smart car do for you that you couldn’t already do with a regular car? Cruise for parking? These are just minor conveniences and for large swathes of the population, they’re likely not welcome either.
Save millions of lives by being safer driving than humans?
Drive you home the rest of the time?
Drive you cross country overnight while you sleep?
Come and pick you up at the airport after a holiday?
Make you money during the day as an autotaxi while you're not using it?
Save your life by avoiding accidents you didn't see?
Radically bring down the cost of taxis and car hire for those who don't own a car?
In our lifetimes all cars will be electric driverless cars in at least some countries. It may not be Tesla but the future is coming.
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There is a lot of software in cars, but cars are not software. Making cars is a lot harder from a business perspective than doing AI. In the end software is just a file that gets loaded into a module - one step in a very long chain.
Manufacturing is well-understood, self-driving is research. Dumb cars = flip phones shortly.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I doubt that will happen. The paradigm shift for a “smart” car vs just a car is nothing like a flip phone vs a smart phone. Besides being able to drive you home when you’re drunk, what can you smart car do for you that you couldn’t already do with a regular car? Cruise for parking? These are just minor conveniences and for large swathes of the population, they’re likely not welcome either.
What can a smart car do that a 'regular' car can't? Save millions of lives by being safer driving than humans? Drive you home the rest of the time? Drive you cross country overnight while you sleep? Come and pick you up at the airport after a holiday? Make you money during the day as an autotaxi while you're not using it? Save your life by avoiding accidents you didn't see? Radically bring down the cost of taxis and…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The bar for success is different too. A rocket which safely delivers its cargo 99.99% of the time would be a huge step forward. A car which safely delivers its cargo 99.99% of the time would be taken off the roads.
It’s funny you mention 99.99% - because 40,000 people are killed by car crashes in a year in the United States, which is actually .012% of the population. So cars actually do a bit worse than your stat...
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There is a definitely path forward for Tesla. They needs to be 1908 Model-T but for EVs of 2019. This means only two things: (1) aggressively lower the manufacturing cost and, (2) scale the battery production. I want to see Tesla that costs $18K and has a range of 300 miles. This would turn auto-industry upside down. I think this is completely doable.
Why would this be doable for Tesla but not every other car manufacturer?
Tesla's main strength is design, courage and agility. Everything from door handles to dashboard is made to delight the user. They are tech company that became car company, they move fast and they deeply care about delighting users. Ideas don't boggle down in bureaucracy. Model-3 is upgraded even before year was over. Model-3 is designed for million mile life. No incumbent manufacturer would dare go in this territory. The difference is same as incumbent software giant vs new startup.
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It would be easier if he'd stop making grandiose claims like "self driving is only two years away!"
Two years away? Just in mid-February he said "You'll be in FSD, coast to coast, in of our cars, _this year_".