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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#461

Post by antpls »

RivieraKid wrote: post #270

I watch Tesla fairly closely from both the bull and bear sides. In short, I don't believe Tesla is anywhere close to Waymo. They won't achieve FSD in 2020. It's important to see this event in the context of their significant demand and cash problems. Even enthusiastic Tesla investors like Galileo Russell suggested that Tesla is in a cash crunch and should raise money. Which hints at the main mystery about Tesla, why…

If I were a billionaire and I wanted to change the world, I would put pressure on existing companies by creating a competing company and pretending extraordinary achievements.

Truth or not, failure or not, Musk moves forward the hopes and expectations, and I'm thankful just for that.

I don't see how we can blame him for taking position

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#462

Post by bobsil1 »

sytelus wrote: post #123
gonehome wrote: post #88

Interesting pieces: - First principles hardware design of focused self driving computer (many times better than any competing existing hardware). Already shipping in all newly produced cars. Currently working on next gen that will be 3x better to ship in a couple years. - Lidar is an unnecessary mistake that competitors are making that won't succeed (too expensive, need too many, unnecessary). - Real world fleet test…

> Lidar is an unnecessary mistake that competitors are making This is very controversial and rest of the industry thinks exact opposite, many even claiming that Tesla is being irresponsible and even delusional in trying to do autonomy without lidar. The main points I have heard in favor of lidar are that computer vision is very flaky not only in suboptimal weather but even in good weather. Cameras are simply no where…

- Only a matter of time (evolved AGI research) before vision suffices. We know it can work because of bio evolution.

- Also only a matter of time before lidar cheap enough that even Tesla will add for redundancy and edge cases.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#463

Post by lozenge »

ribosometronome wrote: post #264
michaelt wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lidar is not required and is expensive. Given that the only the company claiming that is the one whose cars sometimes hit (or even swerve into) clearly visible stationary concrete barriers in broad daylight [1, 2, 3, 4], I consider that claim far from proven. [1] 2019 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/dashcam-video-shows-tes... [2] 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16772748 [3] 2017 https://bgr.com/2017/03…

Are there any other vehicles being driven autonomously at the same scale? It seems like it may be an unfair comparison.

Yes, many other cars have lane following features and adaptive cruise control, they just don't call them "autopilot".

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#464

Post by hebrox »

jacquesm wrote: post #41

The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate rather than just (for large values of just) re-doing the motive power bit. That alone is a massive challenge and it is not something they've licked at economies of scale that allow a $10K vehicle to be brought to market, which is what it will take to really make this a success. Every extra they tack on to the base product is one they will…

I wouldn't have bought my Model S if it wasn't for Auto Pilot and the promise of Full Self Drive

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#465

Post by xedeon »

justapassenger wrote: post #369
xedeon wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For vertical integration to work you need to have funds to support it long term. Elaborate.

Building one-off solution that will work good for your special use-case is hard, but in a doable territory. But cutting off fat that you don't need for your use-case is a one-off gain. Building whole process that will keep on producing solutions that are better than what suppliers can offer, especially in highly competitive area, is way way harder. That's where the real money are spent.

From the video presentation, it did not seem to be a "one-off" effort. They mentioned that V2 was already 50% complete and will continue to be developed over time to avoid complacency and stay competitive while also keeping the cost at a manageable level.

I get what you're saying though. But if they manage to pull off the Robotaxi fleet, then $$$ won't be much of an issue.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#466

Post by [deleted] »

sytelus wrote: post #336
sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

Karpathy is great at presenting executive-101. However self-driving is much much more than image classification. You have a time component, you need to integrate information as it comes in to meaningful state (aka SLAM) and make sequential decisions that has potential to kill people. This is still unsolved research problem unlike punny ImageNet classification. Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#467

Post by MarkMc »

rohit2412 wrote: post #293
SheinhardtWigCo wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

I'm getting tired of saying this. Why is it one or the other? Why only a human driver or a robot driver? Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds? If the human falls asleep, the robot can do trivial driving, and the human still makes the more difficult driving decisions. The question isn't if robot car is better than an average car being driven by a hu…

> Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds?

I'm not sure that human+robot would be better than robot alone. Eg. The human is in control and starts moving close to the adjacent lane without indicating. Does the robot (a) assume the human driver is changing lanes and so turns on the indicator light; (b) take control of the car and move it back to the center of the current lane; (c) do nothing and let the driver change lanes without indicating? The ambiguity in the human driver's intentions means the robot might make a decision that is less safe than if it was in complete control.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#468

Post by DeonPenny »

cmsonger wrote: post #29

This focus on the hardware is silly. Assume for a second that their new hardware is 50x faster than their last hardware. That does not mean that their cars can self drive today. That does not mean that their cars can self drive three years from now. It's 100% not proven or obvious how car self driving skill and car self driving error rates scale with compute -- but it's surely not linear.

What if they proved it by improving hardware from self-driving hardware 1 to 2. If they proved that and proved it made their NN better then it makes sense. Of course, it wouldn't to you cause you have no inside knowledge but it may make perfect sense to them based on their data.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#469

Post by hellllllllooo »

dougmwne wrote: post #231

Those are some very bold claims. Level 5 by the end of this year? I find the software approach intriguing and Karpathy's segment was enlightening and did a lot to convince me of Tesla's advantages. On the other hand, I've been sensing that Tesla is finding it harder and harder to raise cash and has been getting increasingly desperate. Are we on the cusp of a new transformative technology or the peak of the mother of…

Option 1: They have solved a problem so hard that no one else, even Waymo, is claiming to be close even with $100k+ worth of sensors and a lot more compute and they have also quietly solved multiple hard unsolved research problems.

Option 2: He's lying to get money.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#470

Post by RivieraKid »

slg wrote: post #420
tomjakubowski wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It gets more daylight and sunlight than any other major city in the US. I think every place on Earth gets just about the same amount, ~182.5 days, of daylight in a year, right? (Not accounting for solar eclipses, or that the earth's spin is slowing) Phoenix having relatively sunny and dry weather is a point taken though.

I phrased poorly. Daylight does vary by location, but that wasn’t specifically the point. Phoenix combines one of the sunniest cities in the country with an average day length that is near the most ideal for the average workday due to geography and no DST. If you work 8am-5pm, your commute will be in daylight for the entire year.

Some of the rides are unsupervised and they can handle night just fine.
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