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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#421

Post by dforrestwilson »

DeonPenny wrote: post #373
navigatesol wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As opposed to the "scientific", "quantitative" reasoning behind Tesla being the leaders in FSD?

Yes absolutely saying Tesla who gets camera data from it's a half million car doesn't give it an advantage is crazy. That not even including the fact it's the only company who can do its strategy. Google would need to get constant data and GM and legacy automakers would need sensor suites on all it's cars yesterday. No one knows if Tesla strategy will work because they don't have the data collection in place.

Neither does Tesla which makes it a moot point.

They have no way to store or transmit the massive data you are describing off the platform do they?

My understanding is that they have very limited storage and transmit onboard.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#422

Post by dforrestwilson »

joshlegs wrote: post #189
dforrestwilson wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“diverting attention from the main problem they are dealing with, which may in the longer term leave open enough room for the competition to wiggle through.” Perhaps this is the intent rather than a side-effect.

Indeed, Musk has encouraged competitors from the start. I believe they open sourced a lot of their patents in an effort to encourage competition in the electric vehicle space.

I was actually referring to the first part of the quote.

Intentional misdirection to distract investors.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#423

Post by CamperBob2 »

torpfactory wrote: post #150
sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

Does anyone know how Lidar would work in the future when many other vehicles are also using lidar? From working with some different types of photo sensors (CCD, avalanche photodiodes, photomultiplier tubes), you might imagine that incident light from another car's emitter would be much brighter than the reflected light the lidar sensors are reading and cause saturation.

Probably the same way GPS satellites avoid jamming each other: modulate the lidar transmitter with a unique coded sequence that can be detected by correlation.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#424

Post by CamperBob2 »

rohit2412 wrote: post #293
SheinhardtWigCo wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

I'm getting tired of saying this. Why is it one or the other? Why only a human driver or a robot driver? Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds? If the human falls asleep, the robot can do trivial driving, and the human still makes the more difficult driving decisions. The question isn't if robot car is better than an average car being driven by a hu…

Human drivers already space out, check their Facebook, text their friends, and otherwise lose track of what's going on without having cars that claim to do most of the driving autonomously. The more autonomy you add, the more drivers will take advantage of the opportunity to do something behind the wheel besides drive.

Autonomous cars are one of those things that really need to be done right or not at all. The notion that human drivers will be ready and able to take control at a moment's notice is nothing short of laughable.

IMO, about the only way partial self-driving cars can work would be to delegate it to a remote building full of 'drone drivers' somewhere. Heck, I'd pay for that today, just out of laziness.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#425

Post by threeseed »

alyx wrote: post #375
sytelus wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Karpathy is great at presenting executive-101. However self-driving is much much more than image classification. You have a time component, you need to integrate information as it comes in to meaningful state (aka SLAM) and make sequential decisions that has potential to kill people. This is still unsolved research problem unlike punny ImageNet classification. Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about…

Good overview, I share your opinion. Tesla is betting BIG on NNs. In the presentation they say that we have NNs in our brain. Which is why we can look at one photo of a dog, and distill enough identifying information in order to spot the breed from then on. Training sample of 1. Curiously though, they than say that NNs don't work like our brains do, and require A LOT of training data from all angles, etc. Training sa…

Going to guess that you're new to this.

So deep learning via neural networks is pretty much the only way to implement self driving cars these days. It's what everyone is using and is used also in FaceID and other recognition systems.

So Tesla isn't betting big on it any different to all of the other self driving companies. We wouldn't say Facebook is betting big on PHP just because they use that technology. And Tesla definitely isn't in the top tier compared to say Waymo.

Plus talking about neural networks approaching human ability is just marketing buzzwords. It doesn't mean anything tangible since we can't define our abilities in terms of models with hyperparameters.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#426

Post by MPSimmons »

rayiner wrote: post #384
slg wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Phoenix basically provides perfect conditions for self driving cars. There is very little precipitation. It gets more daylight and sunlight than any other major city in the US. There is little to no vehicle endangering wildlife. The city was mostly designed post-cars meaning there are lots of big newish straight roads and there isn't much pedestrian culture. To put it simply there is a lot of "reality" that exists in…

Note that currently Tesla’s “autopilot” doesn’t even beat Toyota’s and Subaru’s adaptive cruise control: https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a24511826/safety-featu... You can’t even mention Tesla in the same breath as Waymo.

My Tesla has gotten immensely better in the past few months. The release of the version 9 (https://www.tesla.com/support/software-v9) was revolutionary. I would love to see the same test repeated with current software (and then again, once AP HW3 is released)

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#427

Post by 1123581321 »

sixQuarks wrote: post #277
VikingCoder wrote: post #118

Musk: "You're only going real fast in the forward direction." Dozens of times in my life, I have been driving down the freeway at 70 MPH in a 60 MPH zone, and I've noticed someone weaving through traffic behind me, going closer to 140 MPH. I need to know whether to change lanes, stay in my lane, stop changing lanes, pump my breaks to indicate there is slowdown ahead of me that car might not see, etc. Just food for th…

I’ve been driving for nearly 30 years and have never even seen one person going 140mph, yet alone dozens

The person who wrote that doesn’t realize how fast 140 would seem. That kind of speed differential is not something you can attempt to avoid. Even 100 vs. 70 is rare, and the safest thing to do given that differential is nothing. This is not an area any car company should worry about.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#428

Post by eanzenberg »

ajross wrote: post #407
eanzenberg wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a photo with any camera at night and compare with what you're seeing with your eyeballs.

Have you... actually tried that? Night shots with a decent camera sensor work much better than your eyes. You're probably being fooled by the exposure control on your junky consumer phone app. Grab one with manual control over exposure/iso and sample rate, you'll be shocked. It's not even a secret. Light capture in a phototransistor[1] is a basically direct process without a whole lot of loss or wasted surface area.…

How are you arguing that ccd’s are better than human eyes? Take video at night and compare. Why do you think hollywood, with their 100k+ camera rigs, still need to add artificial light everywhere especially night scenes? Eyes are incredible at dynamic range, resolution, and response rate. They have to be due to evolution.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#429

Post by Animats »

sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

It was significant that the brief bits of video showed the system identifying "driveable" areas, shown in blue. That's important. The first step is to conservatively mark driveable areas, where you can physically drive. Then you get to plan where to go.

Amusingly, if you wanted to train a vision system to recognize driveable areas, the straightforward approach would be to use a LIDAR system to measure road flatness. Watching the road go by on video as a human driver drives is not very useful for this. That just tells you about the part of the road a human driver chose to use, not about the road geometry itself. The driver probably won't use the road shoulders, but the drivable area system needs to evaluate them.

Recognizing drivable areas is what keeps you from hitting solid objects. You don't have to classify them, just note that they're not flat road.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#430

Post by threeseed »

xkcd-sucks wrote: post #398
monk_e_boy wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> require A LOT of training data from all angles Also, we learn things outside of our cars. I ride a bike, this gives me insight into what bike riders will do on the road. I have kids, so I know a kid on the pavement will be more risky / unpredictable than an adult. I drove down a single track road today and met another car coming towards me. We stopped, then he started to reverse, there was a passing place behind hi…

Hmm maybe the problem is actually interacting with humans naturally, on the road, so self-driving is really human-style general AI

This is actually the aspect that really doesn't get discussed enough. Imagine these scenarios:

a) Roadworks and a guy tells you to stop or waves you through. Or asks you to drive slowly. Or points to a direction that he wants you to go.

b) Woman on the side of the road is waving their arms about because her small child is crawling on the road trying to chase a toy.

If self driving cars can't look another person in the eye and identity their intent then there are going to be a lot of unforeseen problems.

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