Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#411

Post by Animats » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 2:58 AM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #397

maccam94 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe he claimed that they did have all of the sensors they need with hardware v2, and they had no need for LIDAR. We'll see if that's true. One thing that stood out to me is that he said they only need radar in front because you're only moving fast in that direction. Does that mean the cars will be susceptible to T-bone accidents?

>Does that mean the cars will be susceptible to T-bone accidents? Is there much of anything a car can do to prevent being T-Boned? And even if there is, I don't really see it being something that radar would help much with. If you and another car are approaching perpendicularly, you'll have an almost perfect situation to get positioning and speed information over a pretty short amount of time. Of course I've never do…

Is there much of anything a car can do to prevent being T-Boned?

Yes. Stop suddenly while entering the intersection when conflicting traffic is detected. Google cars do that, and they have been rear-ended several times because of it. You can find those events in the CA DMV accident reports. Better than being hit by the cross traffic.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#412

Post by Animats » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:23 AM UTC

DarmokJalad1701 wrote: post #410

Animats wrote: post #405

Here's the new self-driving demo video from today.[1] From Tesla's HQ in Palo Alto, out to I-280, down one exit, use interchange at Sand Hill to turn around, come back. No visible conflicting traffic on non-freeway streets. Compare the 2016 demo video.[2] That's a tougher route. That's the one where we now know it took a lot of tries to get a clean video. Waymo and Cruise have put up videos of their cars in city traf…

https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120466861970399232 These guys also went on the ride-along: https://youtu.be/2BZHXh1nbWc?t=360

That's helpful.

Second video says the driver "touched the steering wheel once" in 15 minutes of driving. That's a disconnect. So, one disconnect in, what, 10 miles of driving? Waymo reported one disconnect per 1,392 miles to CA DMV last year.

Amusingly, the riders were not allowed to take video.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#413

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:27 AM UTC

krzkaczor wrote: post #234

sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

What I found interesting as well is that they (him and Elon) hated the idea of using high definition maps, saying that if you need them you don't do self-driving cars really. For example, when driving condition change (roadblock or anything) you're done.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#414

Post by naikrovek » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:28 AM UTC

ajross wrote: post #404

naikrovek wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that, ultimately, vision and some IMUs will be all that's needed for an as-perfect-as-possible self-driving cars. Your statement on phone cameras being better than the human eye isn't true today, though. The human eye has FAR better dynamic range than any camera built to date, at any price point. This matters a great deal on sunny, cloudless days in a city with tall buildings casting dark shadows, for example…

> The human eye has FAR better dynamic range than any camera built to date, at any price point. Not at all true. All you need to do is take your camera into a dark room for proof. It can take useful pictures in environments you can't see. And with some manual control and safety precautions (seriously, don't actually do this) you'll note you can shoot useful photos of things that are very near bright sources like the…

Dynamic range is the ability to see things in both direct sunlight AND in dark shadows at the same time. You need to be able to see pedestrians that are both directly lit by the sun and in the darkest shadows in the same frame of video.

No long exposures, no multiple exposures with varying exposure -- a single frame. I don't know of any 24-32-bit per channel sensors, and that's what you'd need.

We agree on vision processing. I thought I made it clear that it's a strong "backend" to vision (the brain or compute behind it) that makes it work so well, and that will be the case with good self-driving cars as well. I must have misstated something.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#415

Post by natch » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:38 AM UTC

dyarosla wrote: post #379

natch wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Limited routes, geofenced, not truly autonomous, mows down pedestrians even with a supervisory driver.

Source for the last two claims?

Can't edit now, but I was mistaken, that was an Uber car.

The Waymo robotaxi cars are supervised. Source: https://www.apnews.com/09894dee68d7496399f176a77a8bc98d

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#416

Post by slg » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:43 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #406

slg wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article is judging AEB which is a safety feature that comes free on Teslas and isn't a part of the Autopilot system. It would obviously instill more confidence if Teslas performed better, but this isn't a measure of the company's Autopilot or FSD capabilities since it is entirely possible that AEB is a completely independent system.

AEB is allegedly built on the same vision system: https://electrek.co/2017/04/25/tesla-automatic-emergency-bra... > But the system still wasn’t at feature parity with the first generation Autopilot, primarily because of the lack of Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) feature. Electrek has now learned that the important feature is going to be released this week. > As we reported during the release of the 8.1 update, AEB…

You are linking to an article describing the 2nd hardware version. They have since released version 2.5 and today’s demo was about version 3.0 which is in current production cars.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#417

Post by slg » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:46 AM UTC

mrep wrote: post #400

slg wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot isn't trying to compete with Waymo and therefore any comparison there is irrelevant. Tesla hasn't rolled out FSD publicly so it is unclear whether Tesla would have any data about it performs in Phoenix.

> Autopilot isn't trying to compete with Waymo and therefore any comparison there is irrelevant So their autopilot sensors, disengagement data, and algorithms from their autopilot cars aren't being used at all for their FSD program whatsoever? > Tesla hasn't rolled out FSD publicly so it is unclear whether Tesla would have any data about it performs in Phoenix. Isn't that because they are using their autopilot progra…

Yes that data is used to train the FSD tech, but that doesn’t mean Tesla has FSD stats that are would mean anything in comparison to Waymo. This is neither a positive or negative sign for either company, they are just approaching things differently and therefore they can’t be judged against each other easily.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#418

Post by lutorm » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:50 AM UTC

X6S1x6Okd1st wrote: post #299

threeseed wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That people drive vision is so idiotic. Humans have far higher resolution sensors and the most advanced computer ever seen behind them. And even that fails at a far higher rate than we want self driving cars to be.

The resolution outside of the fovea is pretty poor. It's a little unclear what portion of accidents we could cut out if we had human level performance, but never let the attention waver or disallowed reckless driving. Judging from NMVCCS it'd cut out somewhere between 34 - 75% of accidents. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

That's not really relevant though because people don't stare at a fixed point, they trade time for resolution over a larger area.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#419

Post by lutorm » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:55 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #52

jacquesm wrote: post #41

The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate rather than just (for large values of just) re-doing the motive power bit. That alone is a massive challenge and it is not something they've licked at economies of scale that allow a $10K vehicle to be brought to market, which is what it will take to really make this a success. Every extra they tack on to the base product is one they will…

I think it's related to who Musk is, and the kinds of things he wants to achieve. SpaceX isn't trying to just do what has always been done and just make it 5 or 10% cheaper. That's boring. SpaceX is completely turning the launch industry on it's head. Tesla is the same. Elon isn't interested in making "just" an electric car. He wants to change the world, and electric cars that drive themselves will do that. Can he do…

The purpose of Tesla is to save the world from global warming, though. I'm not sure self-driving is that relevant compared to the electric propulsion part.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#420

Post by slg » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:55 AM UTC

tomjakubowski wrote: post #393

slg wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Phoenix basically provides perfect conditions for self driving cars. There is very little precipitation. It gets more daylight and sunlight than any other major city in the US. There is little to no vehicle endangering wildlife. The city was mostly designed post-cars meaning there are lots of big newish straight roads and there isn't much pedestrian culture. To put it simply there is a lot of "reality" that exists in…

> It gets more daylight and sunlight than any other major city in the US. I think every place on Earth gets just about the same amount, ~182.5 days, of daylight in a year, right? (Not accounting for solar eclipses, or that the earth's spin is slowing) Phoenix having relatively sunny and dry weather is a point taken though.

I phrased poorly. Daylight does vary by location, but that wasn’t specifically the point. Phoenix combines one of the sunniest cities in the country with an average day length that is near the most ideal for the average workday due to geography and no DST. If you work 8am-5pm, your commute will be in daylight for the entire year.