I have several questions about Karpathy's presentation:
1. How to label automatically using fleet learning? An example he gave is detecting cut-ins. However, I am wondering if it could be applied to more general and basic cases, for example, labeling lane marking/vehicles.
2. How do you know if someone is a good driver (which is essential for imitation learning)?
Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
361–370 of 550 posts
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#362So far, half an hour from the head of IC design. Nice special purpose IC and board. Dual everything for redundancy. Wide special purpose neural net evaluation. 100 watts for the compute system. Code signing. Shipping in new Model 3 cars since last 10 days. "All we need to do is improve the software" - Musk [12:07 PDT] LIDAR "unnecessary" - Musk [12:13 PDT] Computer vision guy is now speaking. Recognizes "driveable sp…
the narrative in this conference seems, minus the exaggeration, to follow exactly the flow for the presentations given by the MobilEye CTO for the last six years.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#363I watch Tesla fairly closely from both the bull and bear sides. In short, I don't believe Tesla is anywhere close to Waymo. They won't achieve FSD in 2020. It's important to see this event in the context of their significant demand and cash problems. Even enthusiastic Tesla investors like Galileo Russell suggested that Tesla is in a cash crunch and should raise money. Which hints at the main mystery about Tesla, why…
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-tesla-musk-panason...
the fact that suppliers don't like them has been a red flag for a while now
bulls and dreamers don't want to pay any attention to the very imminent problems with tesla's financials and furthermore tesla's executive record
there's a very good reason bears refer to him as fraudboy
but watching him scam taxpayers/unfortunately gullible people/govt (my fav ex. battery swap zev credits) while people fan over him and his company is pretty amazing
also the list of lawsuits...
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#364Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#365It's interesting to contrast Musk's stated aversion to LIDAR with his previous statements about new technologies always starting at the high end and working their way down [1]. Tesla appears to be trying to start at the low end (HW is included with the purchase of a car even if you decide not to opt for the software to make it function. You might imagine that you would start with all the bells and whistles and pare them down as the technology matures and you invent ways to do without.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#366link to the livestream video on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE&t=4150s
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#367Earlier quoted context omitted.
This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.
Problem with Tesla is that it is crashing into objects no human would crash into. And doing so at high speed.
My car (not a Tesla) has a collision warning system but no automatic breaking, and I wouldn't want it to with the number of false warnings I receive.
The public road right before the drive to my house has an s-turn in it. The CWS goes off about half the time I go through that series of turns just hundreds of feet from my turn. I can see the turn in the road and the guard rail ahead, the car sees a stationary object I'm driving straight towards at around 45mph. If it automatically braked with its current awareness, I might never get home or get rear-ended by people following.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
Dirt and dust can also impair LIDAR (it's just light, remember?) as can adverse weather (there's a big question over how well any California-based company will perform in a non-California climate. I suppose my country - Australia - is going to be a big beneficiary of all this). It's a mistake to think LIDAR doesn't have these drawbacks - its an optical system at its core.
Yes, LIDAR has drawbacks too. That's why almost all autonomous vehicle systems "fuse" LIDAR and vision data together. The debate here should be LIDAR + camera vs only camera. Musk has turned the conversation to LIDAR vs camera.
Wow you are commenting,
but you didn’t watch the event I guess because that’s not what Musk said.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#369Earlier quoted context omitted.
For vertical integration to work you need to have funds to support it long term. Apple has it. Tesla - not that much (at least not in the current state)
> For vertical integration to work you need to have funds to support it long term. Elaborate.
Building one-off solution that will work good for your special use-case is hard, but in a doable territory. But cutting off fat that you don't need for your use-case is a one-off gain.
Building whole process that will keep on producing solutions that are better than what suppliers can offer, especially in highly competitive area, is way way harder. That's where the real money are spent.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#370Earlier quoted context omitted.
lidar is not required and is expensive. Given that the only the company claiming that is the one whose cars sometimes hit (or even swerve into) clearly visible stationary concrete barriers in broad daylight [1, 2, 3, 4], I consider that claim far from proven. [1] 2019 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/dashcam-video-shows-tes... [2] 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16772748 [3] 2017 https://bgr.com/2017/03…
Are there any other vehicles being driven autonomously at the same scale? It seems like it may be an unfair comparison.
It is very much an unfair comparison. There is very little (if any) mention of the number of times AutoPilot has prevented an accident amongst self-driving skeptics.