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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is true, why do Waymo (or any of the top 10 self-driving companies besides Tesla) use Lidar? Two facts: 1. Tesla can't use Lidar because of cost and aesthetics. 2. Elon has a strong incentive to oversell their approach to self-driving.

From the presentation they mention that Lidar is good at developing tech demos quickly, but they've found it is insufficient in reality. Which of those 10 companies you reference have moved far beyond tech demos?

I would suggest that the ultimate quick-to-impressive-demo technology of all is deep learning and that as of yet it has proven insufficient.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope to god they are sending back short video clips randomly sampling all driving conditions, not just the disengagement events.

They are.

I wonder if Tesla is getting subpoenaed for video clips.

Other than for accidents, the SEC investigation, etc.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point was that lidar is too low resolution. You must have very high resolution (in both time and space) to achieve L4 or L5; to accurately determine if a pedestrian is not paying attention, or if a bicyclist is looking to cross the road. Not that Tesla is doing any of that right now, they most likely are not. But a lidar is not going to, either. Not ever, which is the point. I thought the fleet learning a…

Musk would have you think it's a Lidar vs. cameras debate. It's not. It's a Lidar + cameras vs. just cameras debate. Lidar has significant shortcomings. So do cameras. But together they make for a decent perception system. With regards to fleet learning, Tesla has been going on about it for years, but more data is not better. Better data is better. Clifornia's disengagement reports have seen criticism because they pl…

It's a radar + cameras vs lidar + cameras debate. It sounds like radar + cameras > lidar + cameras

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are.

I wonder if Tesla is getting subpoenaed for video clips. Other than for accidents, the SEC investigation, etc.

My FOIA requests say no, but lots of blind spots. I'm not operating "at scale" due to the cost involved with non-electronic FOIA requests.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk is noted for his premature optimization. Case in point: both the Gigafactory (vastly overbuilt for the quantity of batteries actually produced) and the Alien Dreadnought (vastly overbuilt for the number of cars Tesla current produces...assuming that Tesla is ever able to get the fancy automation working). Boring Co digging a two-mile tunnel in West LA without bothering to learn how to pour concrete smoothly…

It's easier to optimize a working system than it is to get an optimized system working.

Often reverse is true. Trying to optimize system with million lines of code may require serious change in architecture and much harder because of backward compatibility and all the legacy baggage. As many people would describe it, it much harder to fix an airplane that must also continue to stay in the air.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#356
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two words: Vertical Integration. Apple's work on developing their own SOC (A13) have paid dividends for them. The same legendary chip designer (Jim Keller) designed the new Tesla chip after working for Apple.

For vertical integration to work you need to have funds to support it long term. Apple has it. Tesla - not that much (at least not in the current state)

> For vertical integration to work you need to have funds to support it long term.

Elaborate.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#357

What kind of event is this and who is it targeted to? Right now there’s a comparison of energy consumption for different instructions on processors, I’m very confused.

Surprisingly technical versus what I'd expected, but it is targeted specifically at investors.

The technical angle seems like a very smart one for this talk. You can just smell the cowering insecurity of the analysts and their deference to Musk when the technical descriptions whoosh past them. They may be (rightly) skeptical, but they don't want to look stupid while being so.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…

>"We've gone over this multiple times. Are we sure we have the right sensor suite? Are we sure we have everything we need?.... No."

Where did he say this? He repeatedly said they have everything they need to drive.

>but before you can deploy, you need to integrate Lidar,

Why?

>not all the conventional things you need to build a complete autonomous vehicle.

No one knows how to make a completely autonomous vehicle because they don't exist. I'll take the billionaire tech genius' approach, whose gotten farther than anyone in this field, over your armchair opinion, thanks.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#359

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

>"People drive vision only." Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you mean that Tesla will only be using Computer Vision for autonomy? Doesn't or wouldn't Lidar compliment CV? Or is there a practical design consideration that makes them mutual exclusive?

How many technologies do you see people working on where they say, "well we have one approach we think is gonna work, but we're also going to spend a ton of resources and time developing this other solution that would be useless if the first approach does work. Oh and it would make our cars 5k more expensive atleast."

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#360

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

Karpathy is great at presenting executive-101. However self-driving is much much more than image classification. You have a time component, you need to integrate information as it comes in to meaningful state (aka SLAM) and make sequential decisions that has potential to kill people. This is still unsolved research problem unlike punny ImageNet classification. Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about…

This is still unsolved research problem

Luckily, Karpathy is pretty good at solving research problems.

Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about current state of the art and how they have improved on it

Why would he do that? To help Uber?

Collecting data is actually more trivial part of this problem.

For Tesla, yes. For all others that’s the hardest part.

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