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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#291

Post by ibeckermayer »

sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

> People drive vision only.

No we don't. We have vision which we then interpret with our _minds_. We have the ability to _understand_ what we are seeing, reason from it, and make decisions accordingly. "Deep Learning", no matter how big your dataset, fundamentally cannot possess this capability. Which goes a long way into explaining why Tesla's "self driving" tech keeps on killing people in situations that are trivially simple for humans. There's no way to rigorously test for edge cases in opaque deep learning algorithms, nor is there any way to implement redundancy as there is in ordinary deterministic systems.

This is a mad attempt to replace human cognition with "AI".

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#292

Post by VikingCoder »

gpm wrote: post #202
VikingCoder wrote: post #118

Musk: "You're only going real fast in the forward direction." Dozens of times in my life, I have been driving down the freeway at 70 MPH in a 60 MPH zone, and I've noticed someone weaving through traffic behind me, going closer to 140 MPH. I need to know whether to change lanes, stay in my lane, stop changing lanes, pump my breaks to indicate there is slowdown ahead of me that car might not see, etc. Just food for th…

You're not responsible for dodging the person going 140 MPH behind you to the same extent as you are for dodging the tire doing 0mph in front of you. Humans generally don't because they aren't capable of paying enough attention to what is behind and in front of them simultaneously. The car - with 360 degree vision - is more capable in fact.

Even if I'm not responsible, it's Defensive Driving. It can save my life to be aware of the dangerous situations that other drivers are causing.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#293

Post by rohit2412 »

SheinhardtWigCo wrote: post #259
michaelt wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lidar is not required and is expensive. Given that the only the company claiming that is the one whose cars sometimes hit (or even swerve into) clearly visible stationary concrete barriers in broad daylight [1, 2, 3, 4], I consider that claim far from proven. [1] 2019 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/dashcam-video-shows-tes... [2] 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16772748 [3] 2017 https://bgr.com/2017/03…

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

I'm getting tired of saying this.

Why is it one or the other? Why only a human driver or a robot driver? Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds? If the human falls asleep, the robot can do trivial driving, and the human still makes the more difficult driving decisions.

The question isn't if robot car is better than an average car being driven by a human. It's if the same robot car would be safer if the human was driving it, and the robot in accident prevention mode. And I don't think that is going to be true in any near future.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#294

Post by whamlastxmas »

dforrestwilson wrote: post #15
netinstructions wrote: post #9

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

Hmmm so then why is Tesla ranked last for autonomous driving by third party researchers? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiR... And Elon has a long history of making false claims about Tesla’s progress. For example in 2015 and 2016 he claimed that Teslas would be fully self-driving by 2018. So why shouldn’t we be skeptical? https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/teslas-self-driving-str...

What other major manufacturer has anything close to Tesla's autopilot in a car I can buy today? As far as I know, no one.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#295

Post by XorNot »

threeseed wrote: post #280
sairahul82 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

Vision is not perfect though. It is impaired during night time and difficult conditions and can be obscured if dust/dirt gets on the camera. And not sure who you are but I trust all of the other companies who are doing this a lot more. And they are all using LIDAR.

Dirt and dust can also impair LIDAR (it's just light, remember?) as can adverse weather (there's a big question over how well any California-based company will perform in a non-California climate. I suppose my country - Australia - is going to be a big beneficiary of all this).

It's a mistake to think LIDAR doesn't have these drawbacks - its an optical system at its core.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#296

Post by WhompingWindows »

localhost wrote: post #192

At the tail end of Karpathy's presentation, he said something that reminded me of why Peter Norvig decided to join Google: because that's where the data is. In Tesla's case, they have a unique and likely accelerating advantage in having the best source of data up on which to train their models. I think this forms the basis of an enduring moat relative to their other competitors, none of which are collecting data at t…

I wonder what the ratio of fleet-driving bytes collected is for Tesla vs Waymo vs the other big players...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#297

Post by XorNot »

threeseed wrote: post #285
bogomipz wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"People drive vision only." Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you mean that Tesla will only be using Computer Vision for autonomy? Doesn't or wouldn't Lidar compliment CV? Or is there a practical design consideration that makes them mutual exclusive?

That people drive vision is so idiotic. Humans have far higher resolution sensors and the most advanced computer ever seen behind them. And even that fails at a far higher rate than we want self driving cars to be.

Conversely computers don't get tired, or "distracted", or drunk. They're also faster - human cognition is running about 150-200ms behind what you actually see. Some reflexes are running faster then that, but overall the human platform is not being used with that super-computer in full-control while driving at high speed - our hardware isn't capable of it.

The thing we most bring to driving is navigating complex, low speed environment changes - but we're not great at that either (see the number of toddlers run over in their drive ways, for example).

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#298

Post by oska »

ClassyJacket wrote: post #273
oska wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not assuming the best, I'm assuming basics. We've just watched a presentation where Tesla put immense resources and talent into designing a state of the art vision processing chip. Do you think they're going to let it be rendered useless by not implementing simple physical measures to keep vision coming in from the cameras? (What measures are already there plus easy opportunity for improvement). Of course not. Su…

I have seen recent Teslas in person in the showrooms, and there doesn't appear to be any wiper for the cameras. Especially with a firsthand owner account just a few comments up I think it's actually only logical at this point to assume they didn't put wipers on the cameras.

I would think that heating the glass (and surrounding casing) would be a more effective measure for keeping a camera clear of snow.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#299

Post by X6S1x6Okd1st »

threeseed wrote: post #285
bogomipz wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"People drive vision only." Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you mean that Tesla will only be using Computer Vision for autonomy? Doesn't or wouldn't Lidar compliment CV? Or is there a practical design consideration that makes them mutual exclusive?

That people drive vision is so idiotic. Humans have far higher resolution sensors and the most advanced computer ever seen behind them. And even that fails at a far higher rate than we want self driving cars to be.

The resolution outside of the fovea is pretty poor. It's a little unclear what portion of accidents we could cut out if we had human level performance, but never let the attention waver or disallowed reckless driving. Judging from NMVCCS it'd cut out somewhere between 34 - 75% of accidents.

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#300

Post by jefft255 »

paul_42 wrote: post #55

is anyone knowledgeable with how this compares to Waymo's solutions? I'm curious.

They are fundamentally different: to summarize, Waymo follows the HD maps approach when you have a very precise map of a given city, with both metric (actual 3D shape of the environment) and semantic (lanes, sidewalks, signs) information, in which you localize yourself with centimeter-level accuracy (with GPS, SLAM etc). When you're localized you can combine information that you see now such as cars around you and high quality information coming from the map.

Tesla, on the other hand, thinks this is too fragile to changing environments and works with regular (think google maps level of detail, probably a little better) maps, combined with local semantic information such as signs and lane markings. This also means that they put less pressure on localization, because they don't use the map to detect i.e. speed limit (I'm pretty sure Waymo can detect those signs, it's just that the existence and position of the sign is already known in a global world frame).

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