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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#241

Post by rootusrootus »

nopriorarrests wrote: post #169

Elon just promised Level 5 FSD this year, by the end of it.

If by this year he means 2050, then I'd still be kinda surprised.

I just spent the weekend racking up several hundred miles in a brand new Model P3D. Phenomenal performance, I am completely sold on the future of EV. I was underwhelmed by autopilot however. Drives like a drunk. The adaptive cruise control part actually made me motion sick. I had high hopes going in, so it was a pretty big let down.

I suspect Tesla is going to find themselves on the other end of a class action lawsuit over all the FSD upgrades they've been selling.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#242

Post by wingworks »

personlurking wrote: post #227
sharadov wrote: post #203

You cannot access the stream from Tesla anymore, I found it here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbgtGQIygZQ Karpathy did a great job explaining this, I took Neural Networks a long time back and his back to basics approach refreshed a lot of concepts I'd forgotten!

It's no longer in that link. I found it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbgtGQIygZQ

Is that the full stream though, it seems very perfectly set at 2 hours, like it's the last 2 hours... idk, seems to jump in half way.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#243

Post by dreaminvm »

gamblor956 wrote: post #215
sharadov wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.

This is definitely not true. The engineer explicitly stated that Tesla only gets data when trigger conditions are met (and that this was in fact always the case), so most of the miles that Tesla drivers have been driving was actually never even sent back to the mothership for use in ML training. IOW, despite Elon claiming for years that they're ahead because of the "millions of miles" of free data collection by Tesla…

They cherry-pick rare cases and use their fleet to get more examples of these situations. This seems like the right approach given more miles following the same car in a straight line is pretty useless.

My takeaway from the presentation is that Tesla will perform better than other companies in this space (although I don't know enough about Waymo to comment) due to the following:

-You want a large dataset (Tesla and many companies have this and can simulate) -You want a varied/diverse dataset (Tesla and many companies have this and can simulate)--the point here is simulations for simple cases work (you can only simulate when you know), but for complex ones are close to the difficulty of actual FSD -You want a real dataset (Tesla is the only company who can say this and can say they have data on how X00Ks of drivers will handle these situations)

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#244

Post by willio58 »

tomComb wrote: post #135
Traster wrote: post #125

I'm sorry but I'm finding it really difficult to watch this and match up what the engineer is saying to what Elon Musk is saying. For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: "At firs…

I'm a fan of Tesla, but not Musk. You really can't believe much that comes out of his mouth. If you look at his past claims it becomes clear that he should just be ignored.

Being the fan of a company while completely ignoring the ceo of said company is questionable to me.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#245

Post by [deleted] »

sharadov wrote: post #205
grecy wrote: post #184

Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…

And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#246

Post by identity_zero »

gamblor956 wrote: post #215
sharadov wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.

This is definitely not true. The engineer explicitly stated that Tesla only gets data when trigger conditions are met (and that this was in fact always the case), so most of the miles that Tesla drivers have been driving was actually never even sent back to the mothership for use in ML training. IOW, despite Elon claiming for years that they're ahead because of the "millions of miles" of free data collection by Tesla…

Isn't the "millions of miles of free data" the edge cases? Yes, they're not literally streaming back everything but they have millions of miles with people driving auto-pilot and sending back a significant amount of edge case scenarios, which is the truly valuable information. Sending back data of "successful auto-pilot" can be sending back 10 hours of driving on a straight two-lane road; which seems quite useless.

They also have cars all over the planet while Waymo seems to only be tested in a few cities. I can't find the podcast, but Elon mentioned how one of the main difficulties is the varying types of intersections. There are only so many intersections in Mountain View. But Tesla is getting data for all kinds of intersections.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#247

Post by danhak »

rootusrootus wrote: post #214
sharadov wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.

If the current state of autopilot is even tangentially related to their progress on full self-driving, then it's a lot more than a few years away.

How recent is your experience? I’ve owned a Model 3 for over a year and the pace at which autopilot has been improving is staggering.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#248

Post by slg »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #212
slg wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn’t like it all cameras simultaneously go from 0% obstruction to 100% obstruction instantaneously. The car should pull off the highway and park or at least pull to the shoulder and park once it has identified decreased visibility to an extent that might impact safety.

It kinda is though. Snow deposition is a function of surface temperature, which is uniform across the sensor. Hit the wrong initial temp when you enter a blizzard, and deposition takes your vision in seconds. It can be hard enough to see out the windshield which has heating, wipers and anti-freeze wiper fluid fighting for it.

Do you realize how far you have moved the goalposts during this conversation? You started out with the suggestion that they "fully disable autonomy in September and enable it again in late April" and now you are talking about situations with "the wrong initial temp when you enter a blizzard".

I will simply refer back to my initial comment in this thread: "there is going to be a decent amount of time between when a self driving car can handle most scenarios and when it can handle all possible scenarios". Blizzards are not in the "most scenarios" group. Barring emergencies, no one should be driving in a blizzard let alone an autonomous car.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#249

Post by Fricken »

Symmetry wrote: post #219
metafunctor wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point was that lidar is too low resolution. You must have very high resolution (in both time and space) to achieve L4 or L5; to accurately determine if a pedestrian is not paying attention, or if a bicyclist is looking to cross the road. Not that Tesla is doing any of that right now, they most likely are not. But a lidar is not going to, either. Not ever, which is the point. I thought the fleet learning a…

You can achieve L4 before you can determine if a pedestrian is paying attention. Your car will be slowing down when it doesn't have to but it can work and work safely.

Well, it has to work well enough to be useful. When Waymo reports one disengagement every 11,000 miles, that's just the safety critical disengagements. The total disengagement rate is much higher than that. They are also relying on teleoperators who can help guide the vehicles out of tricky situations, which are myriad and it will take forever for Waymo to build features down to a granular enough level that they can operate reliably enough to compete with Uber.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#250

Post by dwighttk »

Animats wrote: post #39
Animats wrote: post #35

So far, half an hour from the head of IC design. Nice special purpose IC and board. Dual everything for redundancy. Wide special purpose neural net evaluation. 100 watts for the compute system. Code signing. Shipping in new Model 3 cars since last 10 days. "All we need to do is improve the software" - Musk [12:07 PDT] LIDAR "unnecessary" - Musk [12:13 PDT] Computer vision guy is now speaking. Recognizes "driveable sp…

Musk says there will be a driving demo later today. Up next, the neural nets person.

how did the demo go? Is there separate video?
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