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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#171
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone doing lidar not also do visual recognition?

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

  lidar is not required and is expensive.
Given that the only the company claiming that is the one whose cars sometimes hit (or even swerve into) clearly visible stationary concrete barriers in broad daylight [1, 2, 3, 4], I consider that claim far from proven.

[1] 2019 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/dashcam-video-shows-tes... [2] 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16772748 [3] 2017 https://bgr.com/2017/03/02/tesla-crash-video-texas/ [4] 2016 https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1402992/tesla-self-driving-car...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#172
post #21

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

My guess is he means "on the highway". The scary bits of self-driving is person detection, crossing detection, roadwork detection, cyclist detection (e.g. coming up on the right when you are trying to make a right turn). The Waymo end-game that I heard was "able to go through a drive-thru". I highly doubt Tesla is anywhere near that point.

> The scary bits of self-driving is person detection, crossing detection, roadwork detection...

Your point it very astute.

Among a few other ML/AI MOOCs, I completed Udacity's "Self-Driving Car Engineer" nanodegree - so when I'm out driving, I often come upon situations where I wonder "how would a self-driving car navigate this?"

Today, driving in to work (note: USA), I noticed one intersection I've been through many times before, and that question came to mind. The intersection is interesting, because on approaching it, the road curves to the right, and you can actually see one of the traffic lights on the left before you even see the intersection. By the time you see the intersection, you're already on top of it.

So as you round the curve, you see the lone traffic signal (red/yellow/green); if it is red, do you start to brake, or do you wait until you can "see" more traffic signals? If you wait - will you have time to slow down and/or stop? ...and so forth.

This and others are all kind of "edge cases" that will need to be trained on, and/or perhaps other cues for self-driving vehicles installed or set up so the vehicles can navigate such areas successfully. I know when I first went through the intersection it was a bit of a surprise; it's not a very safe intersection (going home in the opposite direction is not any better; in that direction, you're headed downhill, have to cross the intersection, and immediately start turning to the left after going through - the curve is really abrupt, and you have protected/unprotected left-hand turns both directions, etc).

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#173
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone doing lidar not also do visual recognition?

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic.

Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that may or may not be a pedestrian, or a jersey barrier, or whatever.

Elon said: "Lidar is lame! Lidar is Lame! lame lame lame lame."

But then he later said: "We've gone over this multiple times. Are we sure we have the right sensor suite? Are we sure we have everything we need?.... No."

Lidar is a crutch and we'll see how hard Tesla is limping in a couple years when Elon is claiming They're going to have Robotaxis.

To Tesla's credit, it is theoretically possible to develop a fully autonomous vehicle without needing Lidar, but before you can deploy, you need to integrate Lidar, and it can be retrofitted as a largely independent system, necessary for it's enhanced redundancy, but not needed for informing the planner, except when the Lidar is seeing things the vision system isn't.

The presentation was a pretty good run down on various techniques and methods that are being utilized by different autonomy developers. The downside is that everything is framed as a rationalization as to why Tesla has some kind of secret weapon, when they're mostly doing conventional things, and not all the conventional things you need to build a complete autonomous vehicle.

I was waiting for Elon or Karpathy to trot out the magic pixie dust that will have Tesla's driving empty in a couple years, but that was nowhere to be found.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#174
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are comparing two different things. Old snow on the ground (your images) is not the same thing as active or recent snow accumulation on the vehicle (the original comment). It is completely reasonable for the car to disable autonomy due to snow accumulation until someone clears it off the vehicle. That says nothing about the autonomy of the vehicle with snow cover on the ground.

I'm assuming Level 4 is what Musk means by Full Self Driving. The bar to be passed is then "No driver attention is ever required for safety (...) self-driving is only supported in limited circumstances (e.g. geofencing), and when these circumstances are no longer met the vehicle must be able to safely abort the trip, e.g. park the car, if the driver does not retake control." How would that work if you're out driving…

It isn’t like it all cameras simultaneously go from 0% obstruction to 100% obstruction instantaneously. The car should pull off the highway and park or at least pull to the shoulder and park once it has identified decreased visibility to an extent that might impact safety.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone know how Lidar would work in the future when many other vehicles are also using lidar? From working with some different types of photo sensors (CCD, avalanche photodiodes, photomultiplier tubes), you might imagine that incident light from another car's emitter would be much brighter than the reflected light the lidar sensors are reading and cause saturation.

Phase lock or introducing jitter to laser timings. Check out Animats' comments on this topic, it's where I've learned from regarding this.

Thanks!

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short video clips from all cameras are sent back to Tesla when associated with a disengagement event, queued for upload when the vehicle is on wifi.

I hope to god they are sending back short video clips randomly sampling all driving conditions, not just the disengagement events.

They are.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#177

It seems like Tesla is at a pivotal moment. On one hand there are hyper-bulls who claim Tesla is a $4000 stock and the future of transportation. On the other, hyper-bears claim the equity should trade around $0-$10. There seems to be no middle ground. It seems like they are almost betting the company on FSD. I don’t think FSD is really even close to a possibility over the next 5-10yrs. I hope I’m wrong, but if I’m ri…

I think FSD would be cherry on the top. If they can continue slashing down the prices and improve battery life it would be revolution in itself. Even just continuing with current pace if they can produce $18K electric car with 600 miles range in next 3-5 years, you could be golden as shareholder. Their advantage, like Apple, is attention to details and awesome design that other car manufacturers have failed to replicate.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if he's going to explain this position at all? Or if it's just posturing against Waymo et al. Seems like more data is always better than less data for this application?

Because lidar is expensive, error-prone, and can't be created without flaws. So if you make a car LIdar will fail way before camera. The only problem is if camera only can work

Why not both? Infact, Waymo has Lidar, radar and cameras (Tesla have just the last 2 and are working overtime to demonize the first). More data (and more redundancy) is better - assuming you have the computing power to process all the sensor input. As far as I can tell, the rubbishing of Lidar is FUD.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#179
post #149
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The windscreen has wipers, on the Tesla model 3, I don't think all the sensors have wipers... so that's an issue.

Yes, we implemented simple physical solutions such as wipers and window heaters in cars to maintain vision for drivers. What we didn't do was implement lidar to aid human drivers. Simple physical solutions are available if necessary for the cameras too. I don't have a tesla so I don't know what measures they use to keep the cameras clean but I'm sure they've thought about it and designed for it.

Great-grandparent comment suggests that they did not, in fact, design for it. Assuming the best is nice when you have no information, but we have information.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#180
Man -- his engineers must cringe quite a bit when he talks about a future self-driving architecture built on DOJO with 'video-in, actuator controls out' ... just a tiny bit of speculation goes into saying something like that ... To my mind, it undermines the presentation quite a bit which otherwise appears to mainly argue that they will reach full self-driving by iterating on their neural network sensor perception model.
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