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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#62

The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate rather than just (for large values of just) re-doing the motive power bit. That alone is a massive challenge and it is not something they've licked at economies of scale that allow a $10K vehicle to be brought to market, which is what it will take to really make this a success. Every extra they tack on to the base product is one they will…

“diverting attention from the main problem they are dealing with, which may in the longer term leave open enough room for the competition to wiggle through.”

Perhaps this is the intent rather than a side-effect.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#63

The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate rather than just (for large values of just) re-doing the motive power bit. That alone is a massive challenge and it is not something they've licked at economies of scale that allow a $10K vehicle to be brought to market, which is what it will take to really make this a success. Every extra they tack on to the base product is one they will…

> The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate...

Musk's ego plays a lot into this for better or worse.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#64

...out of all the things I expected to see from a Tesla stream, I definitely did not expect a 25 minute discussion on the cost of 32bit additions, dot products, sram bandwidth, and chip design, at the level of a third year college hardware course.

I keep saying this he knows what he doing. You can tell he knows what's happening. Which is rare for a CEO to know this level of detail.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#65

The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate rather than just (for large values of just) re-doing the motive power bit. That alone is a massive challenge and it is not something they've licked at economies of scale that allow a $10K vehicle to be brought to market, which is what it will take to really make this a success. Every extra they tack on to the base product is one they will…

How would power wall lead to them going under? They would just be selling excess batteries, which seems to be one of their advantages over competitors. Autonomy, I'm ambivalent on it, they can charge customers for it right now and many will pay.

If anything, the solar city/roof shingles side-show has seemed the worst to me personally, alongside the falcon-wing doors and the self-infliction of twitter harm by the CEO.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#66
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well they’re vastly ahead in one area: data collection. No other company is even close. You could argue about the quality of data but the platform is there and ever growing, and they can upgrade their hardware in the future and augment existing data.

Don't kid yourself, the car has no bandwidth storage or performance to send back anything other than a few raw frames from disengage events or other rare triggers.

Short video clips from all cameras are sent back to Tesla when associated with a disengagement event, queued for upload when the vehicle is on wifi.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#67
post #49

To summarize, it appears that their new chips can do 96x96 dot product in a single cycle (multiplying neural network weights by values), and have hardware for activations (ReLU, softmax, tanh) and pooling (as in convolutional neural networks). This results in a crazy 144 trillions ops/second. How does this compare to TPUs and the Neural Engine in iPhone CPUs?

something I don't understand, is this chip brand new? is it essential to the autonomous drive?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#68

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

Hmmm so then why is Tesla ranked last for autonomous driving by third party researchers? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiR... And Elon has a long history of making false claims about Tesla’s progress. For example in 2015 and 2016 he claimed that Teslas would be fully self-driving by 2018. So why shouldn’t we be skeptical? https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/teslas-self-driving-str...

Some big time source laundering going on in here, https://electrek.co/2019/04/19/tesla-falls-autonomous-drivin...

Your "third party research" is obviously bullshit, they go as far as including Apple in their ranking.

This right here is just typical worthless marketing press release spam from a management consultancy firm.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#69

It seems like Tesla is at a pivotal moment. On one hand there are hyper-bulls who claim Tesla is a $4000 stock and the future of transportation. On the other, hyper-bears claim the equity should trade around $0-$10. There seems to be no middle ground. It seems like they are almost betting the company on FSD. I don’t think FSD is really even close to a possibility over the next 5-10yrs. I hope I’m wrong, but if I’m ri…

> It seems like they are almost betting the company on FSD. IMO they don't have any choice. The more and longer they operate like a car company shipping bigger and bigger volumes, the more their financials will be undeniably trend towards those of the existing car companies and the more their existing market valuation will be hard to justify. They need something like this to not get traded at traditional car industry…

If you just measure based on Tesla's last two quarters, their P/E is just 28. That's high for a car company but pretty low for tech. Self-driving is not necessary to maintain that valuation, only continued growth of the electric car market in general.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#70
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’ve listened to their earnings calls this is par for the course. Say what you will about his tweets, but I find these discussions fantastically informative and transparent.

absolutely glorious, they're taking questions. first question: can you use anything else besides ReLU activations in your neural net engine? this is wonderful

what a funny question.

"you say you can put bananas in your smoothie. just a thought, but perhaps, might I ask, do you have the capability to put strawberries as well, or are we not there yet?"

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