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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#21

Post by cflewis »

netinstructions wrote: post #9

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

My guess is he means "on the highway". The scary bits of self-driving is person detection, crossing detection, roadwork detection, cyclist detection (e.g. coming up on the right when you are trying to make a right turn).

The Waymo end-game that I heard was "able to go through a drive-thru". I highly doubt Tesla is anywhere near that point.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#22

Post by eaurouge »

netinstructions wrote: post #9

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

Well they’re vastly ahead in one area: data collection. No other company is even close. You could argue about the quality of data but the platform is there and ever growing, and they can upgrade their hardware in the future and augment existing data.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#24

Post by Xylakant »

cflewis wrote: post #21
netinstructions wrote: post #9

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

My guess is he means "on the highway". The scary bits of self-driving is person detection, crossing detection, roadwork detection, cyclist detection (e.g. coming up on the right when you are trying to make a right turn). The Waymo end-game that I heard was "able to go through a drive-thru". I highly doubt Tesla is anywhere near that point.

There have been news reports about the model 3 autopilot getting its speed limits from maps, lacking any sort of sign recognition or manual override to adjust to local conditions. The maps seem to be outdated for germany (1). That’s an essential feature even on the autobahn. Given that test result I’d even be skeptical about any claims of being ahead of the game on the highway.

(1) https://m.heise.de/autos/artikel/Test-Tesla-Model-3-4400919....

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#26

Post by stefan_ »

eaurouge wrote: post #22
netinstructions wrote: post #9

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

Well they’re vastly ahead in one area: data collection. No other company is even close. You could argue about the quality of data but the platform is there and ever growing, and they can upgrade their hardware in the future and augment existing data.

Don't kid yourself, the car has no bandwidth storage or performance to send back anything other than a few raw frames from disengage events or other rare triggers.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#28

Post by ham_sandwich »

It seems like Tesla is at a pivotal moment.

On one hand there are hyper-bulls who claim Tesla is a $4000 stock and the future of transportation. On the other, hyper-bears claim the equity should trade around $0-$10. There seems to be no middle ground.

It seems like they are almost betting the company on FSD. I don’t think FSD is really even close to a possibility over the next 5-10yrs. I hope I’m wrong, but if I’m right, I don’t see how Tesla keeps going on like this.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#29

Post by cmsonger »

This focus on the hardware is silly. Assume for a second that their new hardware is 50x faster than their last hardware.

That does not mean that their cars can self drive today.

That does not mean that their cars can self drive three years from now.

It's 100% not proven or obvious how car self driving skill and car self driving error rates scale with compute -- but it's surely not linear.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#30

Post by mattrp »

2bitencryption wrote: post #25

...out of all the things I expected to see from a Tesla stream, I definitely did not expect a 25 minute discussion on the cost of 32bit additions, dot products, sram bandwidth, and chip design, at the level of a third year college hardware course.

If you’ve listened to their earnings calls this is par for the course. Say what you will about his tweets, but I find these discussions fantastically informative and transparent.
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