141–150 of 190 posts
"The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 And here's the live (well, lagging a few months, but this is a very slow signal anyhow) version: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nor can you say it without quantifying the structure of your earnings... Where are you based, city/country? What kind of clients do you entertain? Also what industry/niche does your consulting empire cover? I assume you're an incorporated consultant and the rate of $3K per day is gross revenue and not net income(?) Certainly this is achievable, but people need to understand exact comparables so they're not comparing…
Ok, replying to you and next up line. I do consulting, the kind I do is irrelevant because there are others with high bill rates too (I know of some iOS devs that make $2,500/day). I have friends who are Java devs making $250/hr. They're not dummies but they aren't exactly Linus Torvalds or Chris Lattner either. Since you asked, I advise companies on how to implement certain development practices, things like DevOps,…
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Just to expand on favourites: Favouriting a comment is a public bookmark, without boost Liking / upvoting a comment is a private bookmark with boost.
Favouriting a comment auto upvotes the comment so it does give it a boost.
"Javascript Delenda Est", by zeveb, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11447851 : > Can we please try to stop talking about this specific language ecosystem as an awful deplorable hell hole or whatever? Back in the second century BC, Cato the Elder ended his speeches with the phrase 'Carthago delenda est,' which is to say, 'Carthage must be destroyed.' It didn't matter what the ostensible topic of the speech was: a…
Why did Cato hate Carthage so much?
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But the author’s point is it’s only predictive in hindsight, due to reversion to the mean of the past data (since investment allocation is basically just measuring price over the short run), not to some objective mean that also applies to the future.
Well that's the hypothesis - that since reversion to the mean stock allocation has always happened it will continue to happen. There's things that can invalidate the assumption, like the widespread common wisdom of HODLing index ETFs (till retirement, no matter what). If the hypothesis is false we could see stock market allocation go all the way up to 80%, or even beyond. Am I wrong?
Reversion to what mean, is the author’s point. The mean for the twenty years between 1900-1920 is different from the mean for 1900-1940, is different from the mean for 1900-1960, etc. The mean is continually shifting. All data sets revert to their own mean, on average, by definition. The mere fact that a data set does so is tautological and thus provides no evidence — no confirmation of any scientific hypothesis.
Edit: see my other comment for the quote of what I consider the key passage in the article.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok, replying to you and next up line. I do consulting, the kind I do is irrelevant because there are others with high bill rates too (I know of some iOS devs that make $2,500/day). I have friends who are Java devs making $250/hr. They're not dummies but they aren't exactly Linus Torvalds or Chris Lattner either. Since you asked, I advise companies on how to implement certain development practices, things like DevOps,…
Thanks, this is all valuable and my own experience bears this out. People looking to take the next step up should pay attention to this wisdom. You say you usually charge $3K-$5K per day, what do you use to determine your rate? That's quite a large spread, so I assume you have some metrics that you use to determine this.
Nope. Sales is human. If it were a codec it would be non-deterministic and lossy.
I quote whatever the market will bear. I try to quote $5k and often get negotiated down to $3k by procurement/vendor mgmt. dept. There's been plenty written about how this works by folks smarter and more experienced at sales than myself.
"The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078 And here's the live (well, lagging a few months, but this is a very slow signal anyhow) version: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203
If I remember correctly, that was suggested half-jokingly by the author to demonstrate that any metric where the numerator is proportional to the stock market will tend to predict future returns (because of mean-reversion). Edit - here you go: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/valuation-and-...
Charts like these (including my own) that attempt to correlate valuation metrics with future returns start off at a significant unfair advantage relative to other types of correlation efforts. Note that a valuation metric is just the current price divided by some variable (earnings, book value, sales, etc.). Neglecting dividends, the long-term future return is just the difference between the current price and some price far out in the future. Notice that “current price” shows up in both of these terms. Is it such a surprise, then, that valuation metrics and future returns seem to correlate well?
Roughly:
(1) Valuation Metric = Current Price / Variable
(2) Future Return = Future Price – Current Price
If future prices are inclined to rise at some rate over the long-term, then any time current price falls (and the same fall isn’t exactly mimicked way out in the future), (1) will go down, and (2) will go up. The valuation metric will fall, and the return–the distance between the future price and the current price–will rise. Hence the (inverse) correlation.
Now, if you choose a denominator for the valuation metric that is highly noisy, its noise may get in the way. But if you choose a denominator that is smooth over time, the pattern will hold. Notably, the plot of the valuation metric versus future return will end up producing a series of coinciding squiggles and jumps that create the visual illusion of non-trivial correlative strength, when there is none.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks, this is all valuable and my own experience bears this out. People looking to take the next step up should pay attention to this wisdom. You say you usually charge $3K-$5K per day, what do you use to determine your rate? That's quite a large spread, so I assume you have some metrics that you use to determine this.
so I assume you have some metrics that you use to determine this Nope. Sales is human. If it were a codec it would be non-deterministic and lossy. I quote whatever the market will bear. I try to quote $5k and often get negotiated down to $3k by procurement/vendor mgmt. dept. There's been plenty written about how this works by folks smarter and more experienced at sales than myself.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, using javascript for server code is batshit insane.
I quit my last job because some retarded morons were in love with node.js, and man were they some low-effort dipshits. They couldn't pay me enough to life a finger for them. It's like they couldn't understand certain facts about the universe, even if they wanted to. I'd get five sentences into a conversation with them, and lose all motivation to continue speaking. I'd just start smiling and nodding. I wish the world…
> low-effort dipshits
> they couldn't understand certain facts about the universe, even if they wanted to
> I wish the world wasn't like this.
Maybe "the world" isn't the problem in these interactions?
I have quite a few. The most recent favorite is this one, which actually features verbatim quotes - and highlites the level of editorialisation in the (us) news: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19405173 " js2 37 days ago | parent | un-favorite | on: Beto O'Rourke's membership in America's oldest hac... Fox News: "Young Beto O'Rourke wrote 'murder fantasy' about running over children, was part of famed hacking gr…
I would love a website that contrasted editorializing of the day's news and rated them. Is this something machine learning could accomplish? Sentiment analysis, perhaps?