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IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

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Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM has been banned from our data center for several years. The decision was before my time, but the answer I've been told is overly expensive, unreliable, and poor support when compared to other vendors.

In my experience, IBM’s support is excellent, bordering on fanatical. It’s just that their hardware (in this case, Spectrum Scale and Power9) are preposterously overpriced. Same for their software, if not more so.

I think these two statements can be reconciled:

- IBM's hardware support is excellent to the point of being obsessive

- IBM's support for anything that is not a hardware problem would be better-implemented by a 5 year old eating paste

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#92

Watson is more a marketing term than a technical connection between products. I invite you to test "Watson Tone Analyzer" https://tone-analyzer-demo.ng.bluemix.net/ : - "I like this product." => "this is an analytical opinion with neutral emotion." - "I like it" => "Tentative, 50% happy answer." - "It's not a bad product." => "analytical". - "It's not a bad tool" => "joyful answer".

Thanks. I tried it myself with text examples similar to yours. The answers are a bit bewildering.

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#93

Watson is more a marketing term than a technical connection between products. I invite you to test "Watson Tone Analyzer" https://tone-analyzer-demo.ng.bluemix.net/ : - "I like this product." => "this is an analytical opinion with neutral emotion." - "I like it" => "Tentative, 50% happy answer." - "It's not a bad product." => "analytical". - "It's not a bad tool" => "joyful answer".

I tried it with the first phrase on the page "This service uses linguistic analysis to detect joy, fear, sadness, anger, analytical, confident and tentative tones found in text."

response: Fear: A response to impending danger. It is a survival mechanism that is a reaction to some negative stimulus. It may be a mild caution or an extreme phobia.

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, as it always has. Unfortunately, mathematical research isn’t there yet. We don’t have models for vision, audition and linguistics. Neuroscience and psychology are in their infancy, a good analogy would compare these fields to where physics was pre-Newton, Galileo era of understanding. I suspect that in the decades to come, these fie…

I agree that DL/ML is destined to fail in domains like this but can you expand on this reasoning? What exactly do you mean by "quantitative math" (I haven't heard this phrase used in this way before)? And what were the equivalents of DL/ML for physics before calculus?

Quantitative math might be the wrong word, maybe applied math? In quantitative finance, you make quantitative models about the world, and build math that realize those assumptions and understanding. A simple example: options are a great financial trading instrument that you can model mathematically, the simplest being the Black-Scholes model. You can imply things like volatility of the stock price based on the price of the option to get a better understanding of what a risk neutral market is thinking, and compare that to the actual market distribution.

>And what were the equivalents of DL/ML for physics before calculus?

This is a good question. Before Newtonian calculus, and the laws of gravitation, people were building very complicated conic models (ie. eclipses, parabolas etc.) to get better and better prediction of planetary motion. A lot of parametric math came out of this, with many sophisticated models getting better and better, giving these astronomers an illusion of progress. However, Newton's insight was that motion is connected to mass, and this insight was the basis of how to derive the laws of motion, which gave us the laws of gravitation (F = (Gm1m2/r^2)). This insight eliminated the previous Keplarian models of motion, because you were now able to predict the motion of arbitrary rigid bodies using very simple math (we teach this in highschool). Ofcourse, Newtonian motion has its limitations that's why we have quantum physics and Einstien's relativity theory. But for practical technological applications, Newtonian physics on its own gets you incredibly far.

Where is ML/DL? It would be akin to Keplarian elliptical motion. More realistically however, it's closer to aether theory of light, and will go the way of GOFAI. This stuff isn't grounded in modelling any scientific observation. Moreover, they are mathematically useless. Back propagation doesn't converge, and why should you fit your data to an arbitrary mathematical structure? In practise, DL/ML doesn't work at all, you will be much more successful by modelling your problem mathematically. For example, consider an automobile manufacturer, which has all kinds of moving parts in their planes. They typically model each part mathematically (ie. gear x under goes exponential time decay), and imply their parameters using rigours test data. Then you use some sort of an empirical statistical model to predict the failure.

I've seen deep learning companies come and fall flat on their face trying to beat the accuracy of these deterministic systems. Those guys needed a lot of data, and GPUs. I'm not even criticizing the fact that DL is a black box. It's worse, it's inferior to everything out there on every metric imaginable. These mathematical models in contrast have been in production for decades, with yearly updates, and they run in real time with little historical data, they are fully understandable and they beat every method we know of.

This isn't the first time multi layer perceptrons gained hype. They didn't work in the 80s, or 90s or the 2000s, they don't work now. The math behind DL is the same that we had in the 80s, they just called it multi layer perceptron. None of the ideas in modern ML/DL are new, all these ideas like reinforcement learning, GANs etc.

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#97
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, as it always has. Unfortunately, mathematical research isn’t there yet. We don’t have models for vision, audition and linguistics. Neuroscience and psychology are in their infancy, a good analogy would compare these fields to where physics was pre-Newton, Galileo era of understanding. I suspect that in the decades to come, these fie…

>Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, I have a neural net onboard my phone which automatically detects songs offline and tells me what they are. Is that semantically 'quantitative math' and not machine learning?

Quantitative math, or applied math isn't based on fitting data to an arbitrary mathematical structure. It's looking at real life, and deriving the mathematical laws that govern what you see. You could have a neural net predict planetary motion. However, it doesn't know jack shit about physics.

>I have a neural net onboard my phone which automatically detects songs offline and tells me what they are.

MP3 uses something called psycho acoustics, which is a quantitative model on human perception, which is used to eliminate frequencies that can't be heard based on this model.

Your neural network doesn't tell you what features make songs distinct, it's not a quantitative model at all, but a black box heuristic on what the important features are superficially. If actual mathematicians worked on this problem, I guarantee you they'd do a better job, and their models would work on a commadore64, with real time training. Moreover it would tell you things like who is singing, if it's a live performance, which concert it was.

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#98

a lot of these AI companies products are really terrible. Has anyone ever tried the AI API models from clarifai ? Just so unaccurate. It seems like a scam. I've also had a really bad experience with watson's speech to text apis.

Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, as it always has. Unfortunately, mathematical research isn’t there yet. We don’t have models for vision, audition and linguistics. Neuroscience and psychology are in their infancy, a good analogy would compare these fields to where physics was pre-Newton, Galileo era of understanding. I suspect that in the decades to come, these fie…

If you mean for medical diagnosis, maybe, but you do realize that NN/AI is totally state of the art for many tasks? NLP, image recognition etc. ?

AI is in a hype bubble right now surely, but it's a 'very real' thing that's going to infiltrate a lot of areas.

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#99
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, I have a neural net onboard my phone which automatically detects songs offline and tells me what they are. Is that semantically 'quantitative math' and not machine learning?

Quantitative math, or applied math isn't based on fitting data to an arbitrary mathematical structure. It's looking at real life, and deriving the mathematical laws that govern what you see. You could have a neural net predict planetary motion. However, it doesn't know jack shit about physics. >I have a neural net onboard my phone which automatically detects songs offline and tells me what they are. MP3 uses somethin…

" If actual mathematicians worked on this problem, I guarantee you they'd do a better job"

No, this is wrong.

Some of the most brilliant people in the world have been working on image recognition, voice recognition etc. and AI is crushing all of their work.

"Your neural network doesn't tell you what features make songs distinct, it's not a quantitative model at all" - it doesn't matter at all if our objective is detecting the song. Neither does the mp3 compression algorithm.

Re: IBM halting sales of Watson AI tool for drug discovery

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, as it always has. Unfortunately, mathematical research isn’t there yet. We don’t have models for vision, audition and linguistics. Neuroscience and psychology are in their infancy, a good analogy would compare these fields to where physics was pre-Newton, Galileo era of understanding. I suspect that in the decades to come, these fie…

> Deep learning and machine learning don’t work. Quantitative math will always prevail, as it always has. What do you think machine learning is, if not “quantitative math”? Deep learning is just linear algebra and calculus, and things like random forests are even simpler mathematically.

Machine learning is glorified curve fitting. DL isn't even mathematically sound, back propagation has no proof of convergence. Quantitative math is about extracting natural laws, and mapping them to mathematical structures. You could use DL to predict planetary motion, and get pretty good at it. But this isn't a quantitative understanding of the world. You didn't learn anything. Physics in contrast has the laws of motion and gravitation. You can directly model arbitrary planets. Moreover, you can model arbitrary rigid bodies, from cars to space shuttles. Your ML, DL random forrest etc. all use math, sure. But so did the Keplarian models of motion. You aren't qualitatively deducing math that governs the world, but forcing an arbitrarily chosen mathematical structure to your data.
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