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Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

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Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#91
post #40

While one hand was trying to balance the budget cutting in investment (education that makes people happier and more productive, healthcare that keeps people healthy, ...) the other hand has been increasing the expenses and decreasing revenue (giving bailouts to bankers, allowing tax havens). How was austerity supposed to balance the economy when money was given away to the rich and taxes reduced? For each euro that w…

What's the point of investing the money into education if the people study in poor countries and then move to the rich countries? Brain drain is a real problem and there has been no solution for it. I'm being facetious about the education part, but you can't deny that those countries are paying for the education of many people who end up going to western Europe.

> What's the point of investing the money into education if the people study in poor countries and then move to the rich countries?

The point is to make people happy. That people that emigrates has an opportunity that would have never had. Some of them will come back bringing other countries knowledge.

That doesn't mean that you are wrong. "Brain draining" is a real problem.

I like the logic of "What if we train our employees and they leave? What if we don't and they stay?"

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#92
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone else pointed out, the US has federal taxes and ways to distribute from rich states to poor states

So issue is really the lack of fiscal union in the EU. Better work on this than on divisive solutions.

A fiscal union would necessitate creating an even stronger political European Union. So far there hasn’t been a call for that and it remains unpopular to most citizens. And the current divisions only make it harder to even suggest one.

A fiscal union would be economically better but politically it is dead.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#93
It isn't fair to blame euro for Italy's troubles.

You should rather look at poor governance:

* high public debt and as a consequence high percentage [over 3%] of GDP going for public debt servicing. [Just stop and think about it - Italy is spending on debt servicing the same percentage of GDP that US is spending on military]

* failure at attracting foreign greenfield investments

* one of lowest percentage of youths with university degree [below 30% - 44% OECD average]

* poor education system [2015 OECD PISA lower then US which means very bottom]

* low productivity at Italy's many small enterprises.

Italy failed at adapting it's economy to globalization age. And the blame should go to Italy's political class not EU.

[1] - https://www.ft.com/content/b3c85b34-e10a-11e8-a6e5-792428919...

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#94

I thought it was going to be about Britain. They have been drivning towards the abyss in the last decades. I used to live in London. The difference in public infrastructure and company facilities between the UK and Northern Europe is quite staggering. Now, add the “Ever shrinking Britain” (Scotland leaving after Brexit…, Northern Ireland more part of EU/Ireland than Britain in the future?) to the events and it makes…

abyss? the UK is one of the best examples of capitalism and free trade in the world.

London is the world capital of finance, with NYC and Tokyo on 2nd place. the UK is ahead of the RoW when it comes to finance by at least 2 years.

northern Europe is too small to matter on the world stage. the Tokyo metropolis is larger than the whole of northern Europe in terms of population and wealth.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#95
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the long term goal is to transition the EU (over the course of multiple human generations) into a single nation, similar to the way the United States operates. In that case, the conditions you described are an expected part of the process. In the US the states and local municipalities have different economic situations, different taxes, etc. And if our states broke off into 50 currencies, some would ben…

The problem is that EU bureaucrats are too impatient to wait multiple generations, therefore they try to speed up the process by schemes like inviting few millions immigrants from Africa and Middle East and then forcing member states to take them, to undermine their national identity. Or try to enforce the same EU wide standards regarding controversial topics such as LGBT rights, abortion, etc. Which of course causes…

I think that's an overly conspiratorial view. I agree with your analysis in part but I don't think the EU is doing these things deliberately to undermine, it's more that it's their philosophy (which IMO is counter to the interests of the average european).

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#96
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

So... is there some way to have both the benefits of multiple currencies and a single one? The convenience of a single currency in terms of cash is becoming less relevant as cash itself is used less, but my understanding is that the main theoretical benefit is that it strengthens the single market. Basically allows EU companies to have suppliers and customers in any EU state, without having to incur currency risks. H…

> So... is there some way to have both the benefits of multiple currencies and a single one?

Look at the USA as an example. The difference with the EU is that the USA are vastly more homogeneous and I believe there is very little opposition to redistribute wealth from richer to poorer states. The EU is fragmented, almost nobody wants a tight political and fiscal integration. What would be of the USA if state governors were much more powerful than the federal president, to the point that few people would know who the president is and what he can do? This is the state of the EU.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#97
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

Another major factor was the debt of each members after joining the euro:

"All members past debts were in their home currency, including Germany. Upon joining the Euro, the past debts were also converted to the Euro because their old currencies were abandoned. What I mean by international value is if you look at the debts of all member states, when the euro doubled in value from 80 cents to the US dollar to $1.60, from a US investor, he doubled his money holding Greek debt or any member’s debt. We can see that the dollar rose sharply against the drachma between 1995 going into 1999 demonstrating that the drachma declined 47% going into the formation of the euro. The cost of servicing the past debt rises in real terms and when they had to pay off the debt and roll into new debt, they were paying in international value more than it was worth upon joining the euro.Back during the Reagan Administration, I met with the U.S. Treasury and warned that Volcker raising rates to 14% meant he was suppressing inflation immediately, but causing it to exponentially rise by the end of the decade. Why? Because central banks cannot stimulate or suppress and economy with interest rates when the government is the biggest borrower. Whatever they think they are doing by raising rates to stop people from borrowing has no impact upon government for they will always spend other people’s money freely. In that meeting, I was flatly told it was OK because the government would be paying back with cheaper dollars. In this case, the rise in the euro to $1.60 meant the opposite – member states would be contracting and had to pay out huge sums beyond what they originally owed. This was no different from people who took out Swiss loans and then the Swiss franc/euro peg broke. Suddenly the borrowers owed a lot more in their home currency when the Swiss rallied.

Consequently, the past debt of Greece was in drachma and the decline in the currency meant that its debt in terms of dollars (international value terms) fell almost by 50%. Upon joining the euro, the past debt was then converted to euro – not before. Therefore, in international terms of value, the debts effectively doubled in real terms. This would NOT have been a problem had all the debt of member states been consolidated into a federal debt for Europe. Thereafter, any new borrowing would have been purely state debt NOT acceptable for reserves in the banking system.

In this manner, the past debt, which does not stimulate the immediate economic position, doubled in real terms and increased the cost of servicing the past debt. This is how the economy was strip-mined. Had the debt been consolidated into one federal debt, that burden would have been relieved upon by member states. This would have allowed the euro to then actually compete against the dollar."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europe... - see for more detail. I've followed Martin Armstrong for well over a decade now and have found him and his computer Socrates to be incredibly accurate.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#98
post #47
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

Armchair economist here. Is it correct to say that a country like Italy, with its low productivity, constantly needs to devalue its currency to keep its production competitive; and that while doing so would effectively lower the wealth of the country, it could still keep an apparent growth of the salaries, so that there would be an incentive to internal consumption? And that what happens in Italy instead is that the…

Spot on.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#99
post #93

It isn't fair to blame euro for Italy's troubles. You should rather look at poor governance: * high public debt and as a consequence high percentage [over 3%] of GDP going for public debt servicing. [Just stop and think about it - Italy is spending on debt servicing the same percentage of GDP that US is spending on military] * failure at attracting foreign greenfield investments * one of lowest percentage of youths w…

I replied to another poster and although your points are valid, each members debt load had a greater effect. Please see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europe...

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#100
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the point of investing the money into education if the people study in poor countries and then move to the rich countries? Brain drain is a real problem and there has been no solution for it. I'm being facetious about the education part, but you can't deny that those countries are paying for the education of many people who end up going to western Europe.

> What's the point of investing the money into education if the people study in poor countries and then move to the rich countries? The point is to make people happy. That people that emigrates has an opportunity that would have never had. Some of them will come back bringing other countries knowledge. That doesn't mean that you are wrong. "Brain draining" is a real problem. I like the logic of "What if we train our…

Fair point but I think the problem is that the brain drain is exacerbating the other structural problems in the eurozone.
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