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Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

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Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#61
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

I am not sure the Euro in itself was the problem, but countries where included before they where ready and not enough mechanisms across the union to help those regions/countries that where struggling. But,hey, I am but an armchair economist.

That's a common argument you see a lot for years, they weren't ready, they cooked their books etc.

But for example Greece, that "cheat" they did to get in eurozone couple years earlier, wasn't a cheat back then and EU was totally informed, also the debt that swapped was insignificant compared with the amount of debt created due to systemic problems of eurozone and EU.

Too bad there are fake news only for the stronger, the weaker and smaller countries can do nothing but get crashed under the propaganda.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#62
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italy and Greece have always had corruption. But they didn't always have recession.

Countries get recessions when they pile double-digit deficits and triple-digit sovereign debts hidden from the world with years of accounting fraud, and suddenly banks cease lending them the money they need to keep burning through the cash they don't have.

Greek debt crisis begun when they had 160% of GDP debt, after years of recession, "bailing" packets and the heroic efforts by EU/IMF they now are at 190% of debt. Great success.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#63
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are not "the basic schools" of economics. If I had to pick two camps, I would pick Keynesianism and Neoclassical economics. Politically, Keynesianism has won over both sides of the spectrum. There is no "diametric opposition", virtually all socialists of today agree that markets are to be favored over central planning. That part is settled by history. What socialists and non-socialists disagree over is generall…

I deliberately wrote basic and political/economics, in the sense that political debate regarding economics is divided into those basic catagories at least in Britain. Economic policy , the yes practically the decision is between some form of Keynesianism or something vaguely monetarist (Laissez-Faire) How can a socialist ( https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/socialism ) system have a market? The point I was…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism#Marxism%E2%80...

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#65
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

So... is there some way to have both the benefits of multiple currencies and a single one? The convenience of a single currency in terms of cash is becoming less relevant as cash itself is used less, but my understanding is that the main theoretical benefit is that it strengthens the single market. Basically allows EU companies to have suppliers and customers in any EU state, without having to incur currency risks. H…

I’d say that has more to do with the regulations in place that ease the movement of goods and people. In that framework having the same currency and wildly different economies actually goes against the interests of your workers too, because it allows companies to outsource labour to other EU countries where the cost of living is radically less, with basically no drawbacks. The solution to this should be a consistent effort to strengthen the weaker economies, but more than anything impose similar taxation policies throughout the EU.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the long term goal is to transition the EU (over the course of multiple human generations) into a single nation, similar to the way the United States operates. In that case, the conditions you described are an expected part of the process. In the US the states and local municipalities have different economic situations, different taxes, etc. And if our states broke off into 50 currencies, some would ben…

The motto is „a ever closer union“, although that does not necessarily see a nation state at the end, and it has become somewhat outdated... What the US has, and the EU would need, are some mechanisms to level economic differences between the constituent states. Any federal US program effectively works as such, even though that is rarely acknowledged in the public discourse. As but one example: military spending is f…

We should have two currencies, one slowly sinking in value and one slowly rising. Then a country should be able to choose internally to align itself with the Euro or the Orue, for internal trade, external trade and money value.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#67
post #32
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but they are close to a balanced budget. And have the best employment rates in a long time. Unlike France, a closer example.

Yes, but at what cost? The food bank use rate is at an all time high. A lot of people are skeptical of the raw employment rate - an uber driver who does 1 hour a week counts as "employed".

>an uber driver who does 1 hour a week counts as "employed"

The underemployment rate has been falling steadily alongside unemployment.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#68
post #31
post #7

The Eurozone was never intended to do the damage it has done to PIGS economies but it has. What is worse, is that it has unquestionably been of benefit to Germany, which has one of the strongest hands in shaping the future of the EU. If a macroeconomist had sat down to devise a currency that suffocated Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain - export driven economies (remember that tourism is an export as you have to buy t…

Floating currency is just a way to automatically renegotiate all of a country's contracts. It will not magically create more wealth or lower the costs of materials. In the end, if you're importing something for $1 and you earn $100/yr or it costs $3 because of your devalued currency but you earn $300/yr, nothing has changed. What sucks is the most productive people left and the already massive state obligations fell…

That automatic renegotiation is useful for poorer countries though. If a country exports a lot more than it imports then the valuation of their currency increases, meaning that buying from that country becomes more expensive (because you buy with their currency and there's more demand for the currency). This enables poorer countries to step in and offer to export similar goods for cheaper. It also means that poorer countries, where their imports exceed their exports will get more investments, because their currency is worth less.

A simplified example of the above:

Let's say that Germany kept the Deutsche Mark (DM) and Italy kept the Lira. Let's assume in this case that Germany's exports exceed their imports (trade surplus) and Italy's imports exceed exports (trade deficit).

In the case of Germany, because their exports exceed imports, the value of the DM would go up, because there's more demand for the DM. This would make goods from Germany more expensive (your dollars can buy fewer DMs) and it would slightly diminish the exports of Germany. Due to the DM being more expensive it also means that foreign investment in Germany is more expensive, because your dollars can buy you fewer DMs.

In the case of Italy, because their imports exceed their exports, the value of the Lira would fall, because there's less demand for it. This means that goods from Italy become cheaper (your dollars can buy more Lira) and it would increase Italy's exports. Due to the Lira being less expensive it's cheaper for foreign investors to invest on Italy, because you dollars can buy you more Lira.

When both of these countries adopt the euro, you will have to add up their exports and their imports to find out whether there's a trade surplus or deficit. Let's say that when you add them up and compare you find that you have neither a trade surplus or deficit. This means that goods exported by Germany won't increase in price and the goods exported by Italy won't decrease in price. This is advantageous to Germany and disadvantageous to Italy. It also means that Italy won't gain an advantage in attracting foreign investments compared to Germany either (based on the currency).

In reality, the topic is much more complex, but different currencies seem to have a balancing effect on exports, imports, and foreign investments. Strong exporters in the eurozone benefit from the countries that import a lot.

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#69
post #50

I am Italian. And I am happy to find out it was indeed the fault of EU. Wow, what a relief! I thought we Italian were the problem! I mean, we voted Democrazia Cristiana for decades, just because it had Cristiana in the name, and which party will do any effort to be re-elected when they know in advance they will be re-elected anyway? I mean, I always heard bad things about corruption, but the corrupted politicians wer…

That's a gross oversimplification of the history and structural problems of the Italian Republic.

1. "just because it had Cristiana in the name" that was not the only reason... It was more of a complex clientelism-based system (e.g. I hire people in public industries/companies so that they'll vote for me, and stuff like that)

2. "You have the possibility to counter mafia's power" Man, you don't seem to understand what mafia is. Mafia is not just crime: it's an organization that seeks to replace local power structures in all but name. People that (knowingly) vote for mafia associates are already disenchanted with the idea of elected representatives.

3. Berlusconi was still mostly "clean" by 1994. Sure, he had been a P2 member, but who wasn't? He was divorced, and so what? (So were lots of christian democrats and right-wing politicians before him). The nasty stuff only began to surface years later.

4. "The only top priority was about homosexual rights" Come on, that's right-wing propaganda plain and simple. Stuff like liberalization and reforms of the school and the jobs market were also in the agenda of the last three/four governments not endorsed by Berlusconi. By the way, ethical themes are about the only thing a political party shouldn't negotiate upon to get votes (IMO).

Re: Italy’s austerity-fueled crisis is a warning to the Eurozone

#70
post #22
post #17

Italian here. AMA :-)

Dear token Italian: I thought your new government was Italy-first. What happened? Austerity continues?

We're now in the age of careless public expenditure (a weird form of UBI that actually is an unemployment benefit, early retirements, and so on) and tax cuts that only benefit the upper class.

Or so I've heard, since the government has yet to find the money to do any of these things. Meanwhile, the weak economic growth we were having until last year is gone.

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