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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#161

Post by panarky »

BinaryIdiot wrote: post #46
panarky wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

> It takes tremendous capital expenditure to build that network, and it will take tremendous capital expenditure to neutralize it. Does it, though? Every driver I've talked to basically drives for "all of them". Several told me they try to find whatever apps are local for driving and they setup those alone with Uber and Lyft and simply take whatever pays the most / is more frequent. Uber's software and network are so…

> Does it, though?

It absolutely takes tremendous capital expenditure to build the network. Uber has an accumulated deficit of $20 billion precisely because they subsidized both drivers and riders to build the two-sided network.

It doesn't have to be winner-take-all. A duopoly in most medium to large cities is perfectly viable. But you won't see dozens of competitors because the drivers and riders would wait too long for a match in a sparse network.

Unless the ride-share commodity can be differentiated some other way, it would take large subsidies for a long time to make much of a dent in Uber.

Re: Uber S-1

#163

Post by dougmwne »

danappelxx wrote: post #146
dougmwne wrote: post #112

I wonder if anyone reading through this filing could speculate: Can Uber just raise their prices to reach profitability? If they lost $3B on $44.1B of Gross Bookings, it seems they could raise their prices by about 7% to hit breakeven. Would they really lose that much market share if they did that?

If Uber raises prices, they immediately lose customers to Lyft. It was always a race to the bottom and I don’t see why it would be any different now.

Why wouldn't both Uber and Lift simultaneously raise their prices by a few percent? Once they're both public and the VC cash injections dry up they'll both need to raise prices if they don't want to be out of business. Coke and Pepsi don't sell at a loss to try to steal each other's market share. What would cause these two public companies to run themselves into the ground if the market could absorb a 7% price increase?

I don't actually like Uber that much as a brand, and I understand that the HN groupthink is against them, but I'm not clear on why everyone seems think this is such a terrible business. Are people really going to go back to taking cabs?

I predict that Uber and Lyft will both see big drops in stock price, especially as we enter the next recession. If one or both of the companies survive the downturn, they will turn into leaner, healthy bluechip stocks that turn a stable profit, at least until the flying, self-driving, solar-powered scooters take over. IMHO anyway.

Re: Uber S-1

#164

Post by pastor_elm »

chollida1 wrote: post #10

Note: - Expected to be teh largest IPO this year in the US. - 10th largest all time - trying to raise around $10B - 2018 Year Ended Revenue $11.27 billion - 2018 Year Ended Net Income $997 million - 2017 Year End lost $4.03 billion. - 10 billion trips in September 2018, up from 5 billion in September 2017 - Gross Bookings From Ridesharing $41.5 billion in 2018 - Revenue From Ridesharing Products $9.2 Billion in 2018…

>- 10 billion trips in September 2018, up from 5 billion in September 2017

You make it sound like they had 10 billion trips in that month alone. It is 10 billion by September 2018

Re: Uber S-1

#165

Post by rongenre »

ahakki wrote: post #147
dman wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think about morale at Lyft. You have employees locked in who cant sell for first couple of months. They are seeing their networth plummet everyday.

Should've bought options to hedge.

It's against any competently worded lockup agreement.

"“Derivatives” is sort of a vague term, and there is a persistent folk belief that they have magic powers, that any legal or financial problem can somehow be solved by doing a derivative."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-08/lyft-i...

Re: Uber S-1

#166

Post by kingaillas »

dfischer wrote: post #156
partingshots wrote: post #18

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Sorry, what’s a SDC?

Self-driving car.

Re: Uber S-1

#167

Post by parthdesai »

moflome wrote: post #27
simonw wrote: post #2

As always, the most interesting place to start is "Risks to our business": https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519...

"We have incurred significant losses since inception, including in the United States and other major markets. We expect our operating expenses to increase significantly in the foreseeable future, and we may not achieve profitability." We have incurred significant losses since inception. We incurred operating losses of $4.0 billion and $3.0 billion in the years ended December 31, 2017 and 2018, and as of December 31,…

I think it's the investment round in which SoftBank invested around $3.5 billion.

Re: Uber S-1

#168

Post by Agathos »

simonw wrote: post #2

As always, the most interesting place to start is "Risks to our business": https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000119312519...

Yeah, it's always a fun read for grumbling grognards like me. Pretty standard stuff, except I don't think I've seen a company call out its own culture as a risk factor before.

Re: Uber S-1

#169

Post by whoisjuan »

mckenna wrote: post #134
whoisjuan wrote: post #17

Just a brief scan and it looks much healthier and diversified than Lyft. Of course far from a perfect business or anything. Their revenue is 5X Lyft's revenue. Doesn't look good for Lyft's stock to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised if after their first earnings release, Lyft stock goes below 40 USD.

Really? The numbers look horrible to me. Both LYFT/UBER have horrible numbers. I would prefer LYFT(@80% discount to IPO price) than UBER(@80% discount to IPO price). Both of these stock valuations are being pumped and dumped onto public markets with clever tricks. Funny thing is, many of us won't even realize that some of our money will be invested in these stocks without our knowledge(ETFs/Funds tracking indices). M…

I mean. Objectively speaking and valuation aside, Uber's numbers are better than Lyft's. Unlike you, I would much rather take Uber over Lyft, given how extremely siloed is Lyft's market. 1.63 billion from Uber Eats is not a minor number and definitely a contrasting number that shows that at least Uber is trying to position itself as a logistics company instead of a mobility company, which really doesn't make sense (mobility is an abstract concept that I think can't be definied as an industry).

I honestly don't like either. But a plain analysis makes Uber more attractive by far.

Re: Uber S-1

#170

Post by rhegart »

partingshots wrote: post #18

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

Data. They will sell location data. Mine all transits. Physical location data and daily customer trends will net them billions.
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