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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#71

Is the Saudi family invested in Uber? There was a story that Uber was trying to cover up that the Prince that ordered the murder of the journalist Khashoggi - is this true? I know this is a tech forum, but I am not sure what to believe?

The Saudi family is invested in a lot of SV companies via Softbank's Vision fund (The Saudi fund also owns 5.4% of Uber, directly).

I don't think Uber, specifically, had anything to do with Khashoggi murders (with regards to the coverup).

Re: Uber S-1

#72
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ive heard from reliable sources 10% of Uber Eats revenue goes to McDonald’s (not promotionally, in revenue)

Wow, that many people are ordering delivery McDonald's? Maybe McDonald's should start delivery services in some markets itself then?

They do. Google "mcdelivery" - it's all through south east asia.

Re: Uber S-1

#73
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ive heard from reliable sources 10% of Uber Eats revenue goes to McDonald’s (not promotionally, in revenue)

Wow, that many people are ordering delivery McDonald's? Maybe McDonald's should start delivery services in some markets itself then?

I think they probably know they can't do it anywhere near the "cost" that Uber eats charges. It's low value orders so not much comission (my guess) and the delivery fee doesn't cover what they pay the drivers. Plus all the bad PR of running a "gig economy" fleet.

Re: Uber S-1

#74

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

#4 is the most crucial. There's no stickiness. If a competitor builds a better mousetrap, the switching cost is near-zero.

Re: Uber S-1

#75
post #35

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

> it will take tremendous capital expenditure to neutralize it.

It doesn't take tremendous concentrated capital, though. A bunch of independent regional competitors can fight for each city / country separately. Uber has a leg-up with short-term tourists, who already have their app installed, but for regular users, anyone with a decent app and some ad money can be a competitor.

Re: Uber S-1

#76

Is the Saudi family invested in Uber? There was a story that Uber was trying to cover up that the Prince that ordered the murder of the journalist Khashoggi - is this true? I know this is a tech forum, but I am not sure what to believe?

The Arabs are all rolling in cash. It would be hard to find a large company they don’t partly own, just because of the sheer odds.

Re: Uber S-1

#77

Is the Saudi family invested in Uber? There was a story that Uber was trying to cover up that the Prince that ordered the murder of the journalist Khashoggi - is this true? I know this is a tech forum, but I am not sure what to believe?

What experiences would you anticipate being different for you if you believed one way or another?

Re: Uber S-1

#78

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

> 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's That doesn't seem to be true... > 4. Uber expects that its users will stick to it over the course of years in the face of significantly cheaper competition. What significantly cheaper competition?

>What significantly cheaper competition?

The hypothetical Waymo SDC-based 'taxi' service

Re: Uber S-1

#79
Horrible numbers! They cannot get the unit economics to work. In order to make up for that fundamental flaw, they are trying to throw a number of things at the wall(UberEats/UberFrieght/SD/Bikes/etc) and see if something sticks. Each of those other bets seems poor, thus far.

They better focus on getting their original business in shape(call a cab via an app). I would be curious to know if they tried to raise prices in any markets and what the results were. I'm sure they want to know this for themselves and their investors thus far. Has anyone seen data/insights into such experiments by Uber/Lyft/Ola/X/Y/Z?

Given that none of the ride-sharing companies are sharing insights on such experiments, I am going to conservatively assume that these companies have low/no confidence that they can raise prices. Network effects make a good moat. But demand elasticity, substitute products, and competition seem to be dominating over the network effects.

Their original business is a good one. Price and value are way out of sync. UBER at $100-120B is way overvalued. Not touching UBER/LYFT stocks with a long pole at these valuations. Overpriced by 3-4x in my view. When they fall by 70-80%, will buy some.

Re: Uber S-1

#80
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

> It takes tremendous capital expenditure to build that network, and it will take tremendous capital expenditure to neutralize it. Does it, though? Every driver I've talked to basically drives for "all of them". Several told me they try to find whatever apps are local for driving and they setup those alone with Uber and Lyft and simply take whatever pays the most / is more frequent. Uber's software and network are so…

> literally drives for "all of them".

But how many have they _stopped_ driving for?

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