Russ Roberts invited them both to discuss their differences on econtalk- Nassim promptly declined. Until that happens, I think the twitter feud is without value.
Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
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Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#42On the other hand, he managed to get Nate Silver so mad that he called Taleb a cuck. So who can tell who is actually right
These two idiots are used to winning arguments by saying they know the most math. Now they're cancelling each other out.
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#43Nassem Taleb is an arrogant asshole who can't write. I tried reading "The Black Swan" and gave up in a flurry of swearing after less than 100 pages because he utterly failed to justify any of his breathless assertions with anything resembling an argument. Assertion after assertion with no reasoning linking them. Game to Silver on points. At least he can back up his arguments with explanations.
So Nassim Taleb's "Silent Risk"[1], a mathematical parallel version to Incerto, is not good enough?
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#44It might look bad for both for them but also a good way to drum up some twitter followers. I followed them.
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#45If I understand Taleb's argument, it can be boiled down to the following:
A year before an election, there's 365 days worth of news stories, interviews, scandals, and other stuff that will be released to the public before election day. The day before the election, 364 days of that election influencing stuff has already happened and the effects of it are now known. As you get closer to an election, you have more information, and there is less time for public opinion to change, so it follows that you can be more certain of the election's outcome.
Taleb's assumption that voter psychology can be modeled with a random walk is pretty questionable, but if you give him that assumption, what's wrong with his math? The article doesn't actually address this.
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#46From a business perspective, the volatility of Silver's models seem like a feature - they enhance the drama / sensationalism of election coverage. One week, he's telling me candidate X will likely win, the next week it's candidate Y, and I'm on the edge of my seat. If Silver really believed these probabilities were correct, he should be willing make bets with these odds, otherwise his incentives are distorted.
> If Silver really believed these probabilities were correct, he should be willing make bets with these odds, otherwise his incentives are distorted.
Yes, the "skin in the game" argument. That is Nassim Taleb's calling card. Personally, I consider it a little unreasonable to expect people to literally put their money where their mouth is every time they make a forecast.
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#47Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
The best criticism I can come up with is that 538 probably doesn't do a sufficient job of explaining to its audience that their published probabilities are predictions for what would happen if the event occurred today . This seems to be one of Taleb's (and others') criticisms of their predictions: that they don't consider the probability of major unexpected events occurring between now and the event (like an athlete…
That seems like a pretty big difference to gloss over. Why are they publishing probabilities for if the event were to happen today? The event isn't happening today!
They don't exactly gloss over it. They have tons of articles explaining it, but of course the average reader is just going to see the probabilities and run with that, and 538 does have some responsibility to actively explain things upfront in their UI, which I don't think they do a good job at.
> Why are they publishing probabilities for if the event were to happen today? The event isn't happening today!
My guess is that it's extremely out of scope (and probably ultimately infeasible) to try to incorporate these things into their models. Sure, there's a non-zero chance of a candidate being killed by a meteorite, but I think it's fair to ignore that and, if it happens, admit that you didn't even attempt to include the probability of that into your model.
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#49Isn’t it just one big misunderstanding between them?
Taleb thinks 538’s probabilities represent a binary option price on the event, in which case, yes, the probabilities should stay very close to 50% because the vol is so high. Whereas Silver’s models are actually saying “Based on current polls, if the election were held tomorrow, then the probability candidate X wins is Y%” and are thus allowed to swing more wildly. Aren’t both just fundamentally different things or am I missing something in Taleb’s argument?
Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have an example of a time where Nate Silver has shown a misunderstanding of probability? Everything I've read by him has seemed informed.
The best criticism I can come up with is that 538 probably doesn't do a sufficient job of explaining to its audience that their published probabilities are predictions for what would happen if the event occurred today . This seems to be one of Taleb's (and others') criticisms of their predictions: that they don't consider the probability of major unexpected events occurring between now and the event (like an athlete…
Nate himself has explicitly addressed that complaint as a huge mistake that Nassim continues to make and refuses to admit: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1114160511208259584
"p.s. You continue to cite a paper in which you critique our now-cast (a deliberately volatile hypothetical of what would happen in an election held today) and mistake it for our forecast but because you're such a stubborn idiot you won't admit to this very basic mistake."