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Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

m.nautil.us

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Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#21

Post by tptacek »

KorematsuFred wrote: post #8

I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context. Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his "discoveries" such as "skin in the game" are well known to…

Ok. What were your opinions of the actual article we're commenting on? It's written by a Berkeley Math PhD, so I think it's unlikely that it includes a lot of misunderstandings of basic mathematical terms.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#22

Post by spitfire »

kolbe wrote: post #9
kevinventullo wrote: post #6

What's the probability that these guys are friends in real life who both mutually benefit from the popularity of their public feud?

I have a hard time believing Taleb can keep any friends. He thinks everyone is an idiot, and doesn't have any reservation about telling them.

He's good friends with Stephen Wolfram. Take that any way you like.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#23

Post by baddox »

jerf wrote: post #4

"Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules, including Bayes’, and would be arbitrage-free." I'll do the author the courtesy of assuming they've got a more expanded version of their argument in their head and just failed to express that, but I don't think that follows at all. I don't think there's a constraint on "Nate Silver has a probability model" that mathe…

> I don't think there's a constraint on "Nate Silver has a probability model" that mathematically guarantees "Nate Silver's probability model" is correct

If I'm understanding the article correctly, it's not talking about models being "correct," it's just talking about the probabilities of all the outcomes adding up to 100%, which means you can't place a bet that guarantees you make money regardless of the outcome.

In other words, offering a bet that was based on the claim that there is a 99% chance of rain today in the Atacama Desert, and a 1% chance of no rain there, is arbitrage-free. It's still clearly a poor probability model for one of the driest places on Earth, but it's arbitrage-free.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#24

Post by theseatoms »

andrewla wrote: post #14

As I understand it, the feud in its current form started from a tweet from Dinesh D'Souza [1] in which he interpreted Nate Silver's statement that "Dems, GOP winning House are 'both extremely possible'" to mean that they had gone from an 80% chance of winning to a 50% chance. Taleb inexplicably chose this as the hill to die on [2] and wrote a lengthy and technical paper to refute, and replied (on the [2] thread) "Whe…

Taleb's forte is applying various insights from practitioners of financial options to other domains.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#25

Post by Alex3917 »

andrewla wrote: post #14

As I understand it, the feud in its current form started from a tweet from Dinesh D'Souza [1] in which he interpreted Nate Silver's statement that "Dems, GOP winning House are 'both extremely possible'" to mean that they had gone from an 80% chance of winning to a 50% chance. Taleb inexplicably chose this as the hill to die on [2] and wrote a lengthy and technical paper to refute, and replied (on the [2] thread) "Whe…

That's not specifically a Brooklyn thing, it supposedly has more to do with the fact that most Italian families in the tri-state area came to the U.S. before Italy was a country with a standardized language. That's why e.g. in Connecticut they pronounce pizza as abeetz. For whatever reason knowing how to pronounce and spell Italian words "incorrectly" has become a point of local pride, even for people who aren't at all ethnically Italian.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#26

Post by ben509 »

kolbe wrote: post #9
kevinventullo wrote: post #6

What's the probability that these guys are friends in real life who both mutually benefit from the popularity of their public feud?

I have a hard time believing Taleb can keep any friends. He thinks everyone is an idiot, and doesn't have any reservation about telling them.

Maybe not a lot of friends among his professional peers, but that wouldn't narrow his circle much.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#27

Post by baddox »

brian_cloutier wrote: post #16
KorematsuFred wrote: post #8

I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context. Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his "discoveries" such as "skin in the game" are well known to…

Do you have an example of a time where Nate Silver has shown a misunderstanding of probability? Everything I've read by him has seemed informed.

The best criticism I can come up with is that 538 probably doesn't do a sufficient job of explaining to its audience that their published probabilities are predictions for what would happen if the event occurred today.

This seems to be one of Taleb's (and others') criticisms of their predictions: that they don't consider the probability of major unexpected events occurring between now and the event (like an athlete getting injured in the future, or the FBI announcing an investigation of a political candidate). But as I understand it, 538 is explicitly not attempting to consider those things, and is simply publishing probabilities of outcomes if the event were to happen now.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#29

Post by ska »

baddox wrote: post #23
jerf wrote: post #4

"Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules, including Bayes’, and would be arbitrage-free." I'll do the author the courtesy of assuming they've got a more expanded version of their argument in their head and just failed to express that, but I don't think that follows at all. I don't think there's a constraint on "Nate Silver has a probability model" that mathe…

> I don't think there's a constraint on "Nate Silver has a probability model" that mathematically guarantees "Nate Silver's probability model" is correct If I'm understanding the article correctly, it's not talking about models being "correct," it's just talking about the probabilities of all the outcomes adding up to 100%, which means you can't place a bet that guarantees you make money regardless of the outcome. In…

Yes, that's exactly what they mean.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#30

Post by [deleted] »

jerf wrote: post #4

"Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules, including Bayes’, and would be arbitrage-free." I'll do the author the courtesy of assuming they've got a more expanded version of their argument in their head and just failed to express that, but I don't think that follows at all. I don't think there's a constraint on "Nate Silver has a probability model" that mathe…

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