Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

On the other hand, he managed to get Nate Silver so mad that he called Taleb a cuck. So who can tell who is actually right

"Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules, including Bayes’, and would be arbitrage-free."

I'll do the author the courtesy of assuming they've got a more expanded version of their argument in their head and just failed to express that, but I don't think that follows at all. I don't think there's a constraint on "Nate Silver has a probability model" that mathematically guarantees "Nate Silver's probability model" is correct, in any sense of that term. One could certainly provide evidence and/or proofs that Nate Silver's model follows those rules, but I don't think it just goes without saying. If nothing else the model could contain an straight-up error; goodness knows that's easy enough.

(If one wishes to add to the concept "probability model" that it must be correct by definition, than I can't accept the statement "Nate Silver has a probability model" with mathematical levels of confidence. He claims to have one, yes, but that's a long way from a proof.)

What's the probability that these guys are friends in real life who both mutually benefit from the popularity of their public feud?

I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context.

Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his "discoveries" such as "skin in the game" are well known to economists in the form of various theories.

I once exchanged few tweets with him about his criticism of Pinker's claim that we are probably living in one of the most peaceful times in human history. At no point Pinker makes a claim it was inevitable or it being the evidence that peace will continue to exist. Taleb wrote a length paper on the topic which I found to be totally incoherent. When I asked questions his retort was that I do not understand statistics.

Each person's claims are either right or wrong (assuming they are objective claims), regardless of any attribute or action of the person making the claim.