This metric is incomplete without noting the number of hires. This does not mean a net loss in jobs.
I would like to see those numbers. Even if it's evened out with I'd be curious if there's more churn now, which anecdotally seems to be the case.
The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
201–210 of 243 posts
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because people believe in the FDIC, not that there won't ever be a bank run.
The FDIC couldn’t handle a run on every bank. If people thought there would be a massive run, they’d rush to withdraw their money despite the FDIC. So it’s really both: belief in the FDIC’s ability to handle small runs gives people the belief that there won’t be big ones.
The Federal Reserve has unlimited power to create money, which is what backstops the FDIC. It is not bound by any financial resources or constraints.
Organisationally, the FDIC might be challenged by massive bank collapses, though it's addresed this in recent past through forced bank mergers.
https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/assessments/mergers.h...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_acquired_or_bank...
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but the government can. The 2008 crisis didn't happen in deposit banking, but it was effectively a "bank run" in the same sense you're talking about -- all the assets banks could normally use to draw on to meet obligations froze up, and they ran out of money. And the government stepped in, becoming a lender of last resort. And it worked (not well, maybe, but it worked). Saying "the economy is powered by belief"…
> (not well, maybe, but it worked) Obviously we don't have the alternative universe where President McCain opted to do nothing for comparison. But looking at the economic boom we're living in 10 years out, it's difficult to make an argument that the government's handling of the housing crisis was poor. I have a hard time coming up with an outcome more ideal than what we got. 2008->2018 was a much nicer decade than 19…
Maybe. But what about housing prices that came with QE, aren't they just delaying the catastrophy ?
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#204That's weird, I just saw this from CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/nonfarm-payrolls-march-2019....
So, what the heck it going on then?
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#205And yet, markets are nearly at all time highs. I'd like to see a breakdown of who's buying stocks/equities. EDIT: I know earnings are high, but much of our growth over the last 20 years has been during 2-4% GDP deficit. I don't think that's been priced into the markets. Markets may be assuming that the deficit party will continue.
The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it has ever been.
But... apparently, the government has changed how it measures unemployment in those last 50 years.
[1] http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart...
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stock market was posting all time highs all the way up until a month before the 1929 crash that started the great depression.
That was also nearly 100 years ago, when the stock market was at its infancy. I question the relevancy of comparing to 1929
The market was posting all time highs until a few months before the DotCom bust?
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, if you're running a burger joint and fewer people are coming in to buy burgers, why would you continue to order the same amount of beef each week? I get that the real world more complicated than this, as forecasting can be done for months out, but businesses can't magically fix the economy by continuing to spend the way they have been because it isn't sustainable.
The problem being pointed out is that fewer people aren't coming in to buy burgers yet, but because the store managers heard rumors of a recession, they preemptively fire employees and order less meat, which puts fewer dollars in their employees pockets, which means less spending power per person on average which means people actually do spend less, even though there wasn't actually anything wrong in the first place.
Based on what I know about American consumer spending habits, people basically spend whenever they can (which is why consumer debt is so high).
It's when they "physically" can't spend that it starts to slow down (slowing income, access to credit).
Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
That was also nearly 100 years ago, when the stock market was at its infancy. I question the relevancy of comparing to 1929
The market was posting all time highs until a few months before the DotCom bust?
More relevant, but that isn't enough.
The market was also posting all time highs in 2012, 2013, 2014...
If you want a simple proxy, looking at the S&P 500 P/E ratio is a slightly better metric[0].
It's still not the same as explaining the mechanism through which the next recession will occur, but then again if you could explain it a priori, you'd be a billionaire.
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Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#209Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a la…
Your link shows it bottoming out in 2009-2011 after the housing crash, well below the 1992 ratio. And then a steady and mostly linear climb from late 2011 to the end of the data. After that early 90s recession there's a steady rise to the dotcom burst around 2000, which bottoms around 03 and starts to rise again until the housing crash. Seems like a pattern. Progress until the financiers manage to tank the economy, r…
It was below 1992 recession levels 2009-2018!! For 9 years we did worse than the worst point in the previous ~25 years. Due to the magic of government cooked books, nobody knew ...