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The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

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Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#41
post #36

And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...

Layoffs plus hiring. Will people realize at some point that volatility is a sign of health?

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#43
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

anytime you grow at an unsustainable rate, a slowdown is inevitable. It's not a question of if, its a question of when.

The question is what is a sustainable rate.

If the deficit is 3.8% of GDP [1] and growth is only 2.9% [2] during a supposed economic "boom", something is wrong.

[1] https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/federal_deficit_percent_gdp

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-economic-...

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#44
post #36

And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...

Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a lack of jobs for them is their own dang fault, due to a lack of internsl motivation! signed - another Democrat.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#45
That's what left wing economists have been saying for ages. Cutting taxes for the rich does not create more jobs. Cutting welfare programs for the poorest destroys jobs. Trump did both:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-the-trump-tax... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/12/18260271/t...

According to them, cutting taxes can create some short-term growth spurs (like what we have been seeing) but is not sustainable. In 2022-2023 we'll see what state the US economy is in and who was right. Maybe Trump is the financial genius who will finally make Reaganomics work after so many neo-liberal failed attempts. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#46
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

anytime you grow at an unsustainable rate, a slowdown is inevitable. It's not a question of if, its a question of when.

The question is what is a sustainable rate.

One where expenses <= income. Yes, you can move forward with debt, but that debt accumulates over time and if you stay in that state indefinitely eventually you'll go bankrupt. Ergo, an average of break even is the minimum to be sustainable.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#47
post #33
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it has ever been.

Trouble with the unemployment numbers is that it does not account for employment quality. There is a very high number of people who are underemployed or those who have stopped participating in the job market.

LNS12032194 - Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries - Lowest its been since 2007

LNU05026645 - Discouraged Workers - Has gone up in recent months after having been lower than its been since 2007 for most of 2018.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#48
post #36

And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...

Layoffs plus hiring. Will people realize at some point that volatility is a sign of health?

> volatility is a sign of health

Say that to the workers that got laid off, lost earnings and perhaps even the health insurance their family depends on.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#49
post #2

"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions." I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.

Sounds a bit like Roosevelt's "only thing we have to fear is fear itself".

That's exactly what it is.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#50
post #45

That's what left wing economists have been saying for ages. Cutting taxes for the rich does not create more jobs. Cutting welfare programs for the poorest destroys jobs. Trump did both: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-the-trump-tax... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/12/18260271/t... According to them, cutting taxes can create some short-term growth spurs (like what we have been seeing) b…

The layoffs are almost all lead by the retail sector, which is undergoing a shift due to digital disruption from the likes of Amazon.

There is no evidence the tax breaks have created (many) jobs...but there is even less evidence that it has "destroyed" jobs. If you can point me to a peer reviewed study that says that, and not a Vox article, I'll gladly read it. But I skim FRED sometimes and have never seen such claims from a legitimate economist.

In fact a lot of these jobs were reabsorbed elsewhere in other sectors, that's actually a sign of a fairly healthy economy. Which is actually pretty astonishing given the weakness in Asia at the moment; but as someone I've read (can't remember the author) pointed out the US has never imported a recession, even during the currency crisis of the early 90s and all the problems that Japan has had with growth since the early 90s.

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